Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[Xtrema]

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Good point. I didn't do the math until now but looks like they need to be at around 71,000 shots per day to hit 6M people in 81 day. The 2nd dose also complicates that so at some point they need to be at 140,000 per day. Pretty massive undertaking to ramp up to that but hopefully they figure it out.

Given 2nd shot has started already, we are already in the 140k/day phase. And I doubt we are receiving either vaccine at that rate.

EDIT: Ford say Ontario will run out of Pfizer vaccine by end of next week.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7563441/f...d-19-vaccines/

The nature of needing 2 shots to hit advertised efficacy making roll out a nightmare. That's why I am not surprise they are holding back.

[The_Rural_Juror]

Now there's a "fast spreading USA variant". When do we get our own?

[nzwasp]

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-brisban...003519532.html

Brisbane enters 3 day lockdown over a single case. Seems a bit rash - Can't imagine that happening here.

[duaner]

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Given 2nd shot has started already, we are already in the 140k/day phase. And I doubt we are receiving either vaccine at that rate.

EDIT: Ford say Ontario will run out of Pfizer vaccine by end of next week.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7563441/f...d-19-vaccines/

The nature of needing 2 shots to hit advertised efficacy making roll out a nightmare. That's why I am not surprise they are holding back.

It seems like the best thing to do is keep enough for the first shot victims to be able to get the second.

Do you know if there is any discussion about what happens if the second shot isn't given within a certain time frame and what that time frame is? I know they say the second one should be 20 days or so after the first, but what if that gets pushed to 30 or 40+? I just don't know if that second shot is only to boost the efficacy (significantly), which perhaps could be reduced with a longer delay, or if the first could wear off and then another "first" shot would be required. Perhaps that is unknown at this point.

[dimi]

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https://news.yahoo.com/covid-brisban...003519532.html

Brisbane enters 3 day lockdown over a single case. Seems a bit rash - Can't imagine that happening here.

A bit rash? Victoria state had a 4 month lockdown with a 1 hour a day allowance to go outside, inability to go outside a 5km radius, police check stops everywhere, over covid cases that the government itself created with the inability to administer a hotel quarantine.

Define rash.

[Xtrema]

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Do you know if there is any discussion about what happens if the second shot isn't given within a certain time frame and what that time frame is? I know they say the second one should be 20 days or so after the first, but what if that gets pushed to 30 or 40+? I just don't know if that second shot is only to boost the efficacy (significantly), which perhaps could be reduced with a longer delay, or if the first could wear off and then another "first" shot would be required. Perhaps that is unknown at this point.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...derations.html

There is no maximum interval between the first and second doses for either vaccine. Therefore, if the second dose is administered >3 weeks after the first Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine dose or >1 month after the first Moderna vaccine dose, there is no need to restart the series. Vaccine administration errors should be reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).

TLDR, for Pfzier 2nd dose has min interval but not max interval.

I think it's efficacy is the issue at hand, you don't hit 95% until 2nd shot. So you chance of getting it with just 1st shot is still 50/50 (well, 52.4%)

[Buster]

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It seems like the best thing to do is keep enough for the first shot victims to be able to get the second.

Do you know if there is any discussion about what happens if the second shot isn't given within a certain time frame and what that time frame is? I know they say the second one should be 20 days or so after the first, but what if that gets pushed to 30 or 40+? I just don't know if that second shot is only to boost the efficacy (significantly), which perhaps could be reduced with a longer delay, or if the first could wear off and then another "first" shot would be required. Perhaps that is unknown at this point.

There is a window in there where you see efficacy decease if you are outside of it. Earlier than 3 weeks is probably detrimental. They don't know on the long end, but a lot of immunologists are saying 3 months.

[duaner]

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https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...derations.html



TLDR, for Pfzier 2nd dose has min interval but not max interval.

I think it's efficacy is the issue at hand, you don't hit 95% until 2nd shot. So you chance of getting it with just 1st shot is still 50/50 (well, 52.4%)

Thank you! Good to know. That certainly makes it hard to know what to do then--give as many essential workers as possible their first shot and hope for the best, or give the "most essential" workers the full meal deal. Obviously at some point the second round has to start, so then knowing when to stop the first round becomes the issue. There is no winning in the rollout then.

[duaner]

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There is a window in there where you see efficacy decease if you are outside of it. Earlier than 3 weeks is probably detrimental. They don't know on the long end, but a lot of epidemiologists are saying 3 months.

At least that gives a decent window. I'm just wondering when I'll be getting vaccinated, as I just (finally) started that frontline position on Wednesday. It would be nice to get it sooner rather than later. But the PPE is top-notch and they've been doing this since last April, with no staff getting COVID.

[TurboMedic]

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BC, Sask, Ont and Quebec are facing some steep increases in cases...

Alberta's are falling?

This province is not really a compliant populous... WTF is going on?

It will come

[TurboMedic]

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I feel bad for my paramedic buddy who isn’t anywhere on the list either, he has a snotty end of the stick because he goes into calls with no clue about COVID infection and very limited ability to take precautions. He’s also transported several COVID positive patients without AHS even telling him, kind of fucked up.

But end of the day I’m not pretending to pick and choose who gets it, I suppose if I was I’d give myself a shot first

I have never been contacted by tracers for any of my exposures, both via my C+ coworkers and by patients. I've found out every single time by non official channels. They also abbreviate our isolation period and modify "close contact" to reduce impact on staffing. Every single home we go into we have to tell people to mask up (often begrudgingly), and there's a very large amount of symptom denial when there is another C+ in the same house. Many of the houses we enter have everyone in the house C+, so literally every surface is contaminated, all of your gear needs decon and for many of our guys that happens outside in the wind/snow/rain/cold, as does PPE doffing. Others get put in the box with the patient for an indeterminate amount of time with a crappy computer fan trying to be an "exhaust fan" as hard as it can. Then on top of that we eat our lunch, drink our water, spend all day in these vehicles. Its akin to eating food at the bedside. But hey, no risk here right? They (the gov't) can't ever seem to decide what we are, healthcare? nope only when its convenient, otherwise we are public safety. Frontline? nope, only when its convenient, otherwise we are allied health service. Essential? Nope, only when it convenient for their imposition.

[AndyL]

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It will come

This is what I'm afraid of - when schools start sending the minor symptoms off for testing again... It's going to go to hell quick I'm thinking. But it will already be too late with cross exposures at that point.

[kertejud2]

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Given 2nd shot has started already, we are already in the 140k/day phase. And I doubt we are receiving either vaccine at that rate.

Based on delivery schedule we're at ~266,000 vaccines a week (Pfizer is weekly, Moderna is every few weeks so some weeks will have bigger numbers, not including the discrepancy on what goes to the Territories and Maritimes), and see a jump in anticipated deliveries at the start of February and another at the end of February.

With that schedule we can/should see (national) dosing rates of ~40,000/day for the rest of the month. ~70,000/day by the end of February, ~100,000/day by the end of March. Most provinces are really only scraping at the low end of that rate as it is. So nearly all the provinces should be able to keep up their current rates and not exceed deliveries. Quite frankly if provinces aren't facing imminent vaccine shortages every week (if they don't actually use up their doses), they aren't vaccinating enough. Ontario complaining about doses when they've administered less than half their doses is just Ford Nation trying to deflect right now. It'd be in their interest to try and run out and actually put focus onto the feds.

For an Alberta perspective, the delivery schedule has gotten to ~30,000/week, growing to 55,000 a week in February, and then over 80,000/week by the end of March. All based on current delivery schedules anyway. As of right now we're vaccinating at just under 30,000/week pace and have a buffer.

[Buster]

That doesn't include the approvals that are probably coming in Feb too right?

[kertejud2]

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That doesn't include the approvals that are probably coming in Feb too right?

No. It only includes Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

[revelations]

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They (the gov't) can't ever seem to decide what we are, healthcare? nope only when its convenient, otherwise we are public safety. Frontline? nope, only when its convenient, otherwise we are allied health service. Essential? Nope, only when it convenient for their imposition.

Thats the sad part about front line staff - the public doesn't really like you, or care about you, until they need you and the government then just throws everything onto you to duct tape over.

[ExtraSlow]

The public doesn't care about any public sector workers.

[killramos]

Correct

[The_Rural_Juror]

Therefore the privates care about the pubic sector workers.

[adam c]

The South African variant has been detected here

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...rica-1.5866938