Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[suntan]

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Passive aggressive dumb ferret checking in.

Facts have no room in your mindspace. Certainly not rational thought.

[jutes]

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Passive aggressive dumb ferret checking in.

Your disappearance coincided with the opening of the wet markets, was worried you were skinned and boiled alive to make you more tender.

[Buster]

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IHME models presumed full social distancing. They've been disastrously wrong - vastly overestimated ICU bed usage and deaths. Last update was yesterday, and they still got UK's death numbers utterly wrong.

You do know about the IHME models, yes?

Also California. And Oregon. Oregon had patient zero (we presume, but probably not), if you believe that one can be infected and shed virus for five days before symptoms appear, then he basically infected everyone in the airport and the plane he was on.

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Death/million is not anywhere near Italy/Spain/France, their testing regime has ramped up greatly, NYC is at their peak right now for deaths and will now go down. Many states have very few cases, far below even the most optimistic projections.

The models haven't been good, in general. However, we are seeing empirically that the virus can have a wide variety of different outcomes - and I'm not sure I've seen a good explanation as to why yet.

Most of the important data we need to make these assessments is incomplete or absent. The german data is a good start.

[suntan]

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In retrospect, think it may have been more prudent to only shutting in those at risk. However, when this all started, the data was limited. We certainly could not (and cannot) rely on the Chinese data.

As disasterous as this has been for the economy, if it turned out to have been a worse disease then we would all now be thankful we took such a hard stance. Hindsight is 20/20 they say...

I also don't think there is enough data to say that if we didn't have a general quarantine that things wouldn't have been a lot worse. Those who would not be quarantined would still be passing it to those at risk to some degree and more people absolutely would have died as our health care system would still have been overwhelmed at least somewhat. How many extra deaths? Who really knows.

The IC model was what started it all. That model was written by Neil Ferguson himself, in C. That code has never been released. There is code available now, rewritten in Python and with bug fixes.

That model included social distancing. Still hundreds of thousands dead in the USA. It has not come to pass.

All models are wrong. Some are useful.

[suntan]

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The models haven't been good, in general. However, we are seeing empirically that the virus can have a wide variety of different outcomes - and I'm not sure I've seen a good explanation as to why yet.

Most of the important data we need to make these assessments is incomplete or absent. The german data is a good start.

Contrary to popular belief, many parts of Italy and Spain hardly have what is considered to be good health care.

Italy was admitting patients that had mild cases.
Their doctors were not using proper PPE nor practicing proper hygiene.
They were testing at hospitals. So if you didn't have CV, you sure did after you left!

Here's southern Italy throwing shade at northern Italy:

https://www.ft.com/content/9c75d47f-...1-a692b97d95d3

Nosocomial infection was definitely a huge problem in Italy.

[Xtrema]

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good read. If the data there is representative, then this will have a pretty big impact on policy decisions. I think we'll know a lot more about population level exposure in the next month in North America.

Those numbers are very similar to Kenney's numbers. So they increase testing. Hit 800K infection rate and hope that less than 3100 dies and everything opens in May.

Because 0.3% is way less scary than 2%.

[The_Rural_Juror]

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Facts have no room in your mindspace. Certainly not rational thought.

I love you. You are so smart. *Hugs*. You amaze me, but do you complete me?

[Ca_Silvia13]

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In retrospect, think it may have been more prudent to only shutting in those at risk. .

Close schools (because germ factories) and quarantine anyone over 60 or with respiratory issues and international arrivals. Deal with everyone else that wanders in to Emerg with major symptoms. Seems like that would have covered a large majority of the fatal cases without blowing up the economy.

When Trudeau was saying they have 30k ventilators on order but only a few thousand in the country actually require said ventilators for maybe the next 6-8 weeks. Where is the over sight? Why isn't the public screaming about the gross over spending. The math does even come close to adding up.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ven...deau-1.5524581

[The_Rural_Juror]

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Your disappearance coincided with the opening of the wet markets, was worried you were skinned and boiled alive to make you more tender.

Thank you for your concern. I spent this week working and volunteering with some community efforts.

As I have been constantly reminded by suntan, I am too stupid to comprehend anything over a pre-K level. So I help where I can with my itty bitty paws.

[suntan]

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I love you. You are so smart. *Hugs*.

I am not smart. I am simply a skeptic.

"At the heart of science is an essential balance between two seemingly contradictory attitudes — an openness to new ideas, no matter how bizarre or counterintuitive they may be, and the most ruthless skeptical scrutiny of all ideas, old and new. This is how deep truths are winnowed from deep nonsense." - Carl Sagan, "The Demon-Haunted World: Science As a Candle in the Dark"

[suntan]

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Close schools (because germ factories) and quarantine anyone over 60 or with respiratory issues and international arrivals. Deal with everyone else that wanders in to Emerg with major symptoms. Seems like that would have covered a large majority of the fatal cases without blowing up the economy.

When Trudeau was saying they have 30k ventilators on order but only a few thousand in the country actually require said ventilators for maybe the next 6-8 weeks. Where is the over sight? Why isn't the public screaming about the gross over spending. The math does even come close to adding up.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ven...deau-1.5524581

No. Open schools. There is virtually no risk for children. Do the same thing as Sweden/Taiwan. Under 16 go to school. This will build up herd immunity quickly.

The longer we keep this quarantine going, the more risk we put on the most vulnerable.

[Buster]

I think there will be two things (well three), which will shift policy:

1. Anti-viral medications like Remdisivir becoming more available and proven
2. Our ability to test for immunity and infection alongside our ability to more efficiently contact trace.
3. We get to develop better models based on the comparative data with NY, Cali, Germany, etc.

[JRSC00LUDE]

You can be guaranteed of one thing, if it is all proven to be an overreaction, or under control, the last country to give up the control over the populace will be ours. This is Trudeau's fucking wet dream right now.

[The_Rural_Juror]

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I am not smart. I am simply a skeptic.

"At the heart of science is an essential balance between two seemingly contradictory attitudes — an openness to new ideas, no matter how bizarre or counterintuitive they may be, and the most ruthless skeptical scrutiny of all ideas, old and new. This is how deep truths are winnowed from deep nonsense." - Carl Sagan, "The Demon-Haunted World: Science As a Candle in the Dark"

Are you always skeptical of everything by default? What's your training?

[suntan]

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Are you always skeptical of everything by default? What's your training?

Just a B Comm in Finance and MIS. I've been working in IT ever since. Being a skeptic in IT is vital. No, AI isn't going to take over the world. It's just better statistical analysis.

Why would you feel better if I had a graduate degree? I was going to apply for a Masters in Comp Sci for this year, but I think that's been derailed.

[The_Rural_Juror]

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Just a B Comm in Finance and MIS. I've been working in IT ever since. Being a skeptic in IT is vital. No, AI isn't going to take over the world. It's just better statistical analysis.

Why would you feel better if I had a graduate degree? I was going to apply for a Masters in Comp Sci for this year, but I think that's been derailed.

AI is going to take over the world. I just hope they make sexy robots. Here's my qualification.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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I assume there has been an outbreak in a High River nursing home that has not yet been reported.

Now confirmation a couple hours ago that the virus is in High River.
https://www.highriveronline.com/loca...-in-high-river

The details of locations and extent are pending. I expect it will initially be underreported before the full story comes out, but that's hard to say. I know that the initial quantity reports out of Mackenzie Towne were low and I don't know why.

[suntan]

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AI is going to take over the world. I just hope they make sexy robots. Here's my qualifications.

See this is why I can never hate you, because fuck man when you're funny you are absolutely hilarious.

[suntan]

Actually I have been working on using AI to clean textual data. It's been eyeopening.

"Why would you want to do that, the data should already be clean."
"Um..." * person runs away, realizing AI can't do that *
"Oh well you see first you should have a human go through the data to make sure it's clean."
"It doesn't matter, all the mistakes should average out in the end". <- This is from someone that teaches engineering at the U of C.

[tirebob]

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Are you always skeptical of everything by default? What's your training?

Actually, I am skeptical of pretty much everything by nature. That comes from a lifetime of experience of seeing people in control abuse those below them, from seeing things that are scientifically proven one day that are disproved the next day, from seeing people being manipulated and controlled by fear and so on. If you simply accept what is being told to you without question and you assume everything you are being fed is truth then you are the perfect candidate to be lied to and taken advantage of. I would rather be proven wrong than accept others are right automatically. I can't pretend it is an easy way to live, but it is what it is.