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Thread: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

  1. #7921
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    I mean they went from a place of massive uncertainty to us understanding more and more about the disease.

    It would be illogical to not change your reaction as you understand things more.

    He isn’t wrong in that, while this definitely isn’t the flu and affects the body in different ways, that for the overwhelming majority of the population contracting a severe covid outcome is somewhere up there with getting hit by a bus. Especially when the segment of the population who are susceptible to severe outcomes is hilariously predictable.

    Bad shit can still happen to everyone, with very very low probabilities, but nothing about that is really new.
    Shut your dirty whore mouth with your logical/illogical talk! We can't have any of that around here or minds will implode!

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    I mean they went from a place of massive uncertainty to us understanding more and more about the disease.

    It would be illogical to not change your reaction as you understand things more.

    He isn’t wrong in that, while this definitely isn’t the flu and affects the body in different ways, that for the overwhelming majority of the population contracting a severe covid outcome is somewhere up there with getting hit by a bus. Especially when the segment of the population who are susceptible to severe outcomes is hilariously predictable.

    Bad shit can still happen to everyone, with very very low probabilities, but nothing about that is really new.
    There is real concern that the acute phase of COVID is somewhat distinct from the long term impact of COVID on other organs. As you mention, the severe symptoms of the acute phase seem to be relatively rare and becoming more predictable. But we don't know what is happening in the long haul to everyone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    There is real concern that the acute phase of COVID is somewhat distinct from the long term impact of COVID on other organs. As you mention, the severe symptoms of the acute phase seem to be relatively rare and becoming more predictable. But we don't know what is happening in the long haul to everyone.
    And my encounter with a bus is pretty rare compared to a human being.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    There is real concern that the acute phase of COVID is somewhat distinct from the long term impact of COVID on other organs. As you mention, the severe symptoms of the acute phase seem to be relatively rare and becoming more predictable. But we don't know what is happening in the long haul to everyone.
    Totally, we don’t know what we don’t know. And we are figuring that out and it only makes sense to adjust our goalposts accordingly and dynamically as we know more.

    That said, I don’t think shooting for 0% risk is even a reasonable goal, even with a question mark around long term effects of catching the disease (not saying you are advocating for that, but fuck some people I know are - namely teachers).

    The Alberta serology results are also interesting, looks like a lot more people have caught covid than we think and we might be killing ourself trying to prevent an outcome that has already occurred.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

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    Musical intermission #2 seems appropriate

    Combustion engine cars - Bwahaha.

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Totally, we don’t know what we don’t know. And we are figuring that out and it only makes sense to adjust our goalposts accordingly and dynamically as we know more.

    That said, I don’t think shooting for 0% risk is even a reasonable goal, even with a question mark around long term effects of catching the disease (not saying you are advocating for that, but fuck some people I know are - namely teachers).

    The Alberta serology results are also interesting, looks like a lot more people have caught covid than we think and we might be killing ourself trying to prevent an outcome that has already occurred.
    We definitely can't drive the risk to 0% for the population. But I'm willing to try to drive the risk as low as possible for myself personally.

    One thing we haven't done a good job of is distinguishing between effective individual interventions and effective population interventions. The "cheap test strip" concept that's been driving me crazy (along with most epidemiologists by now) is a good example: it's not as good as PCR at diagnosing an individual, but it's far more effective at impacting a population than PCR.

    As for teachers: they mostly just look out for teachers.

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    Yea what you are saying about test strips is a no brainer. Fuck that would even be a godsend during flu season.

    And it makes great economic sense too if you can do it cheap enough, the normal flu costs the US economy’s an estimated 10 billion a year. If you can reduce that to a fraction by having people spit on a stick even once a week before going to work, that would be golden.

    As for covid? Spitting on a strip once a day is definitely cheaper than what we have been doing so far.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Yea what you are saying about test strips is a no brainer. Fuck that would even be a godsend during flu season.

    And it makes great economic sense too if you can do it cheap enough, the normal flu costs the US economy’s an estimated 10 billion a year. If you can reduce that to a fraction by having people spit on a stick even once a week before going to work, that would be golden.

    As for covid? Spitting on a strip once a day is definitely cheaper than what we have been doing so far.
    That $1 test strip might be the highest ROI spend in the history of mankind. And I ain't exaggerating on that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    We definitely can't drive the risk to 0% for the population. But I'm willing to try to drive the risk as low as possible for myself personally.

    One thing we haven't done a good job of is distinguishing between effective individual interventions and effective population interventions. The "cheap test strip" concept that's been driving me crazy (along with most epidemiologists by now) is a good example: it's not as good as PCR at diagnosing an individual, but it's far more effective at impacting a population than PCR.

    As for teachers: they mostly just look out for teachers.
    And since so many people are wary of vaccine even if we have access to one, quick testing is one powerful tool to combat this next few years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xtrema View Post
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    And since so many people are wary of vaccine even if we have access to one, quick testing is one powerful tool to combat this next few years.
    Well yes. It's like economic policy - you just hope there are enough smart people to keep things on the rails and outweigh the retards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    Well yes. It's like economic policy - you just hope there are enough smart people to keep things on the rails and outweigh the retards.
    Totally. Are there going to be people who just toss a positive test in the trash and go about their day, or lie about taking their tests?

    Sure. But even reducing the % of people going out into society by low 10’s of % would have a massive impact.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

  12. #7932
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Totally. Are there going to be people who just toss a positive test in the trash and go about their day, or lie about taking their tests?

    Sure. But even reducing the % of people going out into society by low 10’s of % would have a massive impact.
    Yup...although I think compliance would be quite high. True assholes aren't particularly common - despite the evidence on deerfoot trail.

    Still the benefit literally begins with the first person who stays home with a positive test.

  13. #7933
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    Not to mention, a positive covid test means an instant 1 week staycation.

    I imagine that would be pretty compelling for some people lol.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    That $1 test strip might be the highest ROI spend in the history of mankind. And I ain't exaggerating on that.
    A test strip a day, every working day for the working US population would be around $40 billion a year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    A test strip a day, every working day for the working US population would be around $40 billion a year.
    Considering US covid spend is in the trillions spent so far, that sounds like pretty great economics to me.

    40 billion would even be a bargain compared to the 300+ billion of federal deficit we have incurred so far in Canada.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jutes View Post
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    Haven’t seen any Tiktok vids from ERs lately so things seem to be returning to normal.
    ERs being back to normal is a bad thing and it's getting worse, that house of cards is really starting to tremble. People should be more afraid of hospitals not being able to provide emergency care for anything, not just COVID. April-May was the first time my wife and her co-workers felt they could provide proper care in a longer time than most could remember or had ever experienced. July was a 180 on crack, speed, and C-4. I hope the perfect storm is here and not still coming.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    A test strip a day, every working day for the working US population would be around $40 billion a year.
    I think twice a week should be enough. Given sensitivity issues, if infected, there is a 3-4 days lag before it's detectable anyway.

    In school/office setting, probably Monday and Thursday tests should be good enough.

    Daily will probably reduces chances of false negative but at a cost.

    Compliance would be another issue. Our daily questionnaire before entering office is designed both as a reminder and keep everyone honest. In school, that could probably be easier to control as they take attendance anyway, just attach test to that.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 08-06-2020 at 10:21 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BavarianBeast View Post
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    Are people still actually scared of this virus who aren’t obese or unhealthy as fuck? Even the death numbers from the USA who has the most disgusting population in terms of health aren’t doing that bad.

    Seems like a big joke now that we have more information. The media really blew this one up into a shit show, shitty deal we couldn’t finish that once in a century snow pack up in the mountains to this crap.
    Are people still thinking that the concern is the initial sickness? I don't know about everyone else but i am not worried about that part. We've had bad colds and flus before and i'm confident myself and my family would get over that.

    It's the long term unknowns that make me want to avoid it, that's all. Maybe the long term effects end up being overblown too but for now i'll do everything i can within reason to protect me and my family from getting it just in case.

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    The number of people who think catching covid means they are likely to get very very sick or die is definitely north of 0.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
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  20. #7940
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    Yup, thats why baldness is such a scary prospect. Permanent long term damage. Many people can live with a cough for half a year (or even twenty years if a chain smoker), but to lose your hair completely. Worst virus ever.
    Combustion engine cars - Bwahaha.

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