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Thread: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

  1. #3521
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    Quote Originally Posted by xrayvsn View Post
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    This depends on the R0 and what the actual number of the population has been infected, recovered and now immune or if social distancing is effective in reducing the number of social interactions between non-immune people. To statistically slow the spread, the R0 needs to drop below 1.

    If R0 is 3 then we need about 67% of the population immune or everyone to reduce their social interactions to 1/3
    R0 seems to be 3. The thing is, if it is 3, then transmission has been much, much higher than any model (even the original Imperial model, which only went up to R2.6) has predicted, and since numbers of fatalities hasn't been even close to expected... so...

    R0 of 3 would also mean the pandemic started much, much sooner than any prediction.

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    This is far out but agree with a lot of the points made. Interesting to say the least..

    https://medium.com/@azrya/what-psych...s-730a4a6b9714

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    Quote Originally Posted by BavarianBeast View Post
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    This is far out but agree with a lot of the points made. Interesting to say the least..

    https://medium.com/@azrya/what-psych...s-730a4a6b9714
    I like this point:

    "This may be a very unpopular opinion, but if a business dies because of the Coronavirus, there is a very real possibility that:

    A) It wasn’t truly providing essential value in the first place.

    B) The value it was providing had an unacceptable cost to it (which was being paid for by the Earth itself), and / or…

    C) The time for a new, potentially more omni-considerate creative idea is ready to express itself through those involved in that business, and it’s time to innovate and move on."



    It also makes me think after all this is over, how many companies realize their businesses can change for the better from this forced working-from-home trial. I bet you many realize so many things can be accomplished remotely and the only thing stopping them was complacency and a generation that is reluctant to technological change. I mean, we have managers and leaders who don't even know how to use Adobe Acrobat to edit basic PDFs, all because they never found a reason to learn.

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    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

    This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death, rather it demonstrates that Italy's fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions. Experts have also warned against making direct comparisons between countries due to discrepancies in testing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brent.ff View Post
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    75% salary subsidies by GoC... we gonna be so broke
    Lets hope pandemics are few and far between or perhaps after this one governments are better prepared.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nzwasp View Post
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    Lets hope pandemics are few and far between or perhaps after this one governments are better prepared.
    "The United States Centers for Disease Control, for example, publishes weekly estimates of flu cases. The latest figures show that since September, flu has infected 38 million Americans, hospitalized 390,000 and killed 23,000. This does not cause public alarm because flu is familiar."

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    Quote Originally Posted by suntan View Post
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    "The United States Centers for Disease Control, for example, publishes weekly estimates of flu cases. The latest figures show that since September, flu has infected 38 million Americans, hospitalized 390,000 and killed 23,000. This does not cause public alarm because flu is familiar."
    What's 0.06% of 38 million?
    What's 2.5% of 38 million?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePenIsMightier View Post
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    What's 0.06% of 38 million?
    What's 2.5% of 38 million?
    Ah you're still on that ridiculous fatality rate eh?

    "But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

    Now look at what has happened since the emergence of COVID-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include COVID-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for COVID-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nzwasp View Post
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    Lets hope pandemics are few and far between or perhaps after this one governments are better prepared.
    I still want to know what's been done with the billion ish we've already thrown at pandemic planning since SARS. It's actually way more than that - that's just the $ announcements not even the annual line items in AHS emergency management, and Canada health budgets.

    We don't have PPE stockpiles. There's no cohesive plan in place to be implemented. No "hey this Wuhan thing is out of control, we need isolation/quarantine procedures enacted" back in January when the spread could have been controlled.

    Ontario just threw out 55 million n95 masks they had stockpiled after SARS that were approaching a decade expired...

    There's really no excuse for what happened - successive government failures and lack of planning / forethought. I'd really like to see an inquiry when the emergency is tailing off and the world starts to recover.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nzwasp View Post
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    Lets hope pandemics are few and far between or perhaps after this one governments are better prepared.
    If there's a single country to use as a reference for prepardedness, France will be the one to observe closely and how their health care system copes.
    Ultracrepidarian

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    Quote Originally Posted by msommers View Post
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    If there's a single country to use as a reference for prepardedness, France will be the one to observe closely and how their health care system copes.
    As in similar to Canada, or best/worst prepared?
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by suntan View Post
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    Ah you're still on that ridiculous fatality rate eh?

    "But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

    Now look at what has happened since the emergence of COVID-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include COVID-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for COVID-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections."
    The deathrate will climb. It's easy to take care of patients early on but the more that get infected the faster we run out of beds and supplies. Not to mention front line workers are getting infected as well.

    Spains death rate is rising quickly now because they've hit the point where so many cases are overloading their system. Even the US is starting to rise now as well and it's going to pick up speed a lot in the next week. By next weekend we'll likely see close to a thousand deaths a day in the US.

    Given that we shutdown early we shouldn't (hopefully) see the same huge spike locally. Though that will mean the people living in denial will cry out that we over-reacted. At the end of all this a country will either look like it reacted or it will fall apart. It's much better for us to be in the former than the latter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rage2 View Post
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    So do we know if getting COVID builds immunity to it yet? Once the majority of people get it we should have herd immunity right?
    Dr Fauci believes that it is possible to build immunity, based on similar viruses, but there have been some cases where people have been reinfected. It is quite unclear at the moment.
    This bugger appears to be mutating.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Steph Curry Q&A with Dr Fauci.

    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

  14. #3534
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    Ok Quebec. You can knock it off now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyL View Post
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    I still want to know what's been done with the billion ish we've already thrown at pandemic planning since SARS. It's actually way more than that - that's just the $ announcements not even the annual line items in AHS emergency management, and Canada health budgets.

    We don't have PPE stockpiles. There's no cohesive plan in place to be implemented. No "hey this Wuhan thing is out of control, we need isolation/quarantine procedures enacted" back in January when the spread could have been controlled.

    Ontario just threw out 55 million n95 masks they had stockpiled after SARS that were approaching a decade expired...

    There's really no excuse for what happened - successive government failures and lack of planning / forethought. I'd really like to see an inquiry when the emergency is tailing off and the world starts to recover.
    With the Ontario masks thing you've kind of identified part of the problem. One time funding infusions have shelf lives. Some PPE lasts longer than others, and when everybody is harping on government waste how much turnover of unused supplies do you want to see happening? Storage isn't free. How much capital spending on expanding lab capacity you hope will never have to be used, and maintaining it? Covid-19 is where you need extra ventilators, but what if the next pandemic needs dialysis machines? Do you stock up on both? And so on the scope goes. It could go as far as setting up some factories and warehouses you're willing to sit idle until they can produce the most common items we'd need. Who's going to be the party willing to invest millions, if not billions, into that project when people will be harping for balancing budgets?


    The things we could prepare for are easy to come up with, it's what people are willing to pay for (and keep paying for with the hope that it will be wasted) that's the problem. We'll learn more from this than we did SARS, and there will be an early surge of support for preventative measures and spending that will fade away until the next one, and more systems in place to be more agile and responsive, but it will fade away as the years go on, particularly if there isn't a new pandemic for years. Basically the same as the flood (just look at all that upstream mitigation that still hasn't happened).

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    My MLA is really stepping up to the plate, and not cracking at all during this mess.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    Ok Quebec. You can knock it off now.
    Quebec are real leaders of confederation. We should not be surprised they are winning at this too.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    The deathrate will climb. It's easy to take care of patients early on but the more that get infected the faster we run out of beds and supplies. Not to mention front line workers are getting infected as well.

    Spains death rate is rising quickly now because they've hit the point where so many cases are overloading their system. Even the US is starting to rise now as well and it's going to pick up speed a lot in the next week. By next weekend we'll likely see close to a thousand deaths a day in the US.

    Given that we shutdown early we shouldn't (hopefully) see the same huge spike locally. Though that will mean the people living in denial will cry out that we over-reacted. At the end of all this a country will either look like it reacted or it will fall apart. It's much better for us to be in the former than the latter.
    Where does Dr. Brix land in your arbitrary continuum of credibility?

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi..._analysis.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    Ok Quebec. You can knock it off now.

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    Yeah it's pretty crazy. Especially when you realize that AB has still done more tests (36,660 tests) than Quebec has (34,356 tests) even with us having less than half the population. They're finally catching up in tests the past few days which is why the big jump in numbers. 10x rise in confirmed cases in 5 days.


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    Will there be a poutine shortage? I am getting nervous.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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