Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[duaner]

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There was, but it's diverging now.

Data pulled on Monday. Total number of vaccines or 7 day rolling cases on left axis, 7 day rolling death count, age of death, age of cases on right axis.

Attachment 98474

Yeah, I found the same. It would seem like the health measures and vaccines are doing their work on the initial strain, hence the divergence. It will be interesting to see what happens if the variants, particularly the Brazilian, aren't affected by the current vaccines.

[JRSC00LUDE]

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It will be interesting to see what happens if the variants, particularly the Brazilian, aren't affected by the current vaccines.

Lockdowns forever, Gov't takes over all the failed businesses and we become the national Socialist utopia so many dream about as some kind of salvation. Or as someone else said, bread lines.

[Xtrema]

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Yeah, I found the same. It would seem like the health measures and vaccines are doing their work on the initial strain, hence the divergence. It will be interesting to see what happens if the variants, particularly the Brazilian, aren't affected by the current vaccines.

Fun stats, BC alone has more P1 cases than the whole United States. So we really don' t know how vaccination in US can handle P1.

So Canada only have Brazil to use as reference.

[zechs]

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I think if there's one thing we've all learned is that health care capacity is not something that can be measured and benchmarked numerically. And even if it could, you couldn't use those benchmarks to compare changes over time.

Almost like its by design that performance can't be measured.

[sabad66]

This is from September but apparently AB has 272 ICU beds with the ability to expand to just over 1000 if needed
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5723342

[Xtrema]

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This is from September but apparently AB has 272 ICU beds with the ability to expand to just over 1000 if needed
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5723342

At this point, I think the 1000 bed is a lie. Doctors and nurses are stretched pretty thin last time we hit 200. You may have 1000 beds but I don' think many will be recovering from those beds, they are more like placeholders before you go into the ground.

[ExtraSlow]

I have some experience benchmarking performance of complex systems, but honestly, health care system "performance" and "capacity" do appear to be on the "more difficult" end of that spectrum. I talk a lot of shit about governments and public services, but I'm open to admitting that I do not have the answers. I actually would love the job of facilitating the creation of transparent KPIs for the health system. I think it could be done.

[kertejud2]

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At this point, I think the 1000 bed is a lie. Doctors and nurses are stretched pretty thin last time we hit 200. You may have 1000 beds but I don' think many will be recovering from those beds, they are more like placeholders before you go into the ground.

It's basically the tradeoff in actually activating the number of beds.

Like in November/December, it had to come by transferring staff from things like neurology and cardiovascular surgeries instead because they're trained in all the ICU stuff, then from other hospital services. If makes the realistic number of beds lower, particularity when you need to weight it against things like reducing brain and heart surgeries to accommodate it.

But the variants have thrown another wrench into it, where they're needing to separate variant and 'regular' Covid patients because the staff need to be separated as well. The risk has changed, and dealing with it has inherently made the ICU capacity less efficient in scaling since now they have to deal with multiple procedures that didn't exist six months ago. What it took to add 50 beds back in October and November now takes more to add 20 regular Covid beds and 30 variant beds.

So it comes back to 1000 beds being a theoretical number, but not really a realistic one, not without making bigger sacrifices to the system.

[JRSC00LUDE]

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I have some experience benchmarking performance of complex systems, but honestly, health care system "performance" and "capacity" do appear to be on the "more difficult" end of that spectrum. I talk a lot of shit about governments and public services, but I'm open to admitting that I do not have the answers. I actually would love the job of facilitating the creation of transparent KPIs for the health system. I think it could be done.

Until Gov't Unions and Gov't bureaucrats are removed from the decision making it won't get better. They should sit on an advisory board and have no decision making authority, just input. And some sensible people can sift through it to come up with direction.

[16hypen3sp]

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I'm not going to outright defend the restrictions, but the last time we saw these in place there was a marked reduction in new cases over time, no?

Yup. But here we are.... again.

[pheoxs]

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Yup. But here we are.... again.

Would you rather we opened up the bit that we could? Or just stay shutdown the whole time?

[16hypen3sp]

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Would you rather we opened up the bit that we could? Or just stay shutdown the whole time?

I’d rather we open up 100% and back to normal tomorrow. The most vulnerable people susceptible to severe outcomes have been vaccinated.

These idiots are making rules up day by day. This whole job’s been fucked from the start.

[FraserB]

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Would you rather we opened up the bit that we could? Or just stay shutdown the whole time?

No option for sticking with the plan and metrics that were announced not three months ago? Instead they replace it with a vaguely worded plan that more than likely sees current restrictions in place for at least two months?

People got the stronger restrictions they wanted and yet doctors are in the news already this morning saying we need more, but refuse to say what "more" is.

[Xtrema]

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The most vulnerable people susceptible to severe outcomes have been vaccinated.

That's old news. The ICUs are filling with young people this time, similar trend as Brazil which deaths for 60 and under jumped form 20% to 30% of all COVID deaths.

Something I sorta predicted 10 pages back, as younger people made up most of the cases. But didn't expect the ICU ramp up part, thought the younguns won't reach ICUs even if they are hospitalized.

[duaner]

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The most vulnerable people susceptible to severe outcomes have been vaccinated.

Not necessarily. Some haven't been vaccinated and some have only had one shot. My wife is moderate to high risk for a poor outcome but doesn't qualify for a shot under 2B because of the selective criteria that was chosen. Our doctor said he has some older patients who are perfectly healthy who get the shot, while younger, vulnerable patients don't qualify, all based simply on age. Not to mention that the P.1 variant is possibly not affected by the vaccines.

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These idiots are making rules up day by day. This whole job’s been fucked from the start.

That is true, but it is easier to say that looking back. Of course, why would someone like Trudeau want thinks to get better when the Great Reset is so close?

[pheoxs]

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No option for sticking with the plan and metrics that were announced not three months ago? Instead they replace it with a vaguely worded plan that more than likely sees current restrictions in place for at least two months?

People got the stronger restrictions they wanted and yet doctors are in the news already this morning saying we need more, but refuse to say what "more" is.

Idk, we're above 300 hospitalizations so we wouldn't proceed forward with reopening under the old criteria anyways and we saw in November that even with the shutdowns and cases drop it takes weeks or even a couple months for hospitalizations to gradually fall. Tbh if its vaccine based we might actually reopen sooner. Before the end of April, Alberta will have enough doses on hand for 40% of the population. It just depends how fast the AB government can manage the rollout and get them into people's arms. If they can manage to pace doses arriving (~40k doses per day) then we could hit the 'new' stage 2 reopening in early May which would I think is similar to the 'old' stage 3 because social gatherings are allowed.

They seriously need to stop fucking making new 'stages' though every time. Make a fucking consistent setup so stage 2 is stage 2 and not just keep changing whats where.

Main reason this has to happen is below. People can cry that 'variants' are being overhyped by the media but AB has the highest per capita in Canada (and higher than most US states that we shit on) at the moment so something has to be done. Though I'd much rather see actual enforcement of the existing rules but most people seem to just not give a shit anymore.

[Misterman]

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Idk, we're above 300 hospitalizations so we wouldn't proceed forward with reopening under the old criteria anyways

But we wouldn't be going backwards under the old criteria either.

[pheoxs]

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But we wouldn't be going backwards under the old criteria either.

We would have anyways. Our cases went from ~600/day a week ago to 1k/day the past week. We went from ~240 hospitalizations in March to 328 now. It'll be ~ a week or two until we get closer to the 450 mark which was the old criteria for our current stage.

[Xtrema]

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But we wouldn't be going backwards under the old criteria either.

Fixed criteria is stupid when the game is changing.

[FraserB]

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Idk, we're above 300 hospitalizations so we wouldn't proceed forward with reopening under the old criteria anyways and we saw in November that even with the shutdowns and cases drop it takes weeks or even a couple months for hospitalizations to gradually fall. Tbh if its vaccine based we might actually reopen sooner. Before the end of April, Alberta will have enough doses on hand for 40% of the population. It just depends how fast the AB government can manage the rollout and get them into people's arms. If they can manage to pace doses arriving (~40k doses per day) then we could hit the 'new' stage 2 reopening in early May which would I think is similar to the 'old' stage 3 because social gatherings are allowed.

They seriously need to stop fucking making new 'stages' though every time. Make a fucking consistent setup so stage 2 is stage 2 and not just keep changing whats where.

Main reason this has to happen is below. People can cry that 'variants' are being overhyped by the media but AB has the highest per capita in Canada (and higher than most US states that we shit on) at the moment so something has to be done. Though I'd much rather see actual enforcement of the existing rules but most people seem to just not give a shit anymore.

How do you get stage 2 by early May? It requires 48% immune (not vaccinated), that's at least 2,250,000 doses administered and the lag time between vaccination and immunity accounted for. That's notwithstanding the more than likely requirement that the "transition" stage be met as well, which requires the hospitalization numbers from the old steps and cases falling.

In two weeks-ish, Kenney is going to stand up there and say that even though we poked 22% of people, they aren't immune yet, cases aren't falling and hospitalizations are still a concern. Then he'll moan some about the federal government holding Alberta back because they aren't sending enough vaccines and ease nothing.