Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[ExtraSlow]

Body aches? Jesus how long have I had it?

[ExtraSlow]

Cbc news: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hospi...nada-1.5724107


So cases going up, hospitalization and deaths down or flat. Did all the vulnerable population die? Doesn't seem like it. Is this a head fake and the wave of deaths are coming any day now?



But, for a country the size of Canada, fewer than 10 deaths per day seems pretty manageable. If that trend is stable, we are okay.

[The_Rural_Juror]

But how many people caught autism? TELL ME!

[Buster]

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Cbc news: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hospi...nada-1.5724107


So cases going up, hospitalization and deaths down or flat. Did all the vulnerable population die? Doesn't seem like it. Is this a head fake and the wave of deaths are coming any day now?



But, for a country the size of Canada, fewer than 10 deaths per day seems pretty manageable. If that trend is stable, we are okay.

Population level cause and effect. Not the easiest thing to figure out. New cases doesn't mean much, and never really has. We need to know the prevalence in the population, which is very difficult to ascertain with our current PCR diagnostic testing (too little capacity).

In terms of deaths and hospitalizations, I think that is three fold: lots of vulnerable people died, we are protecting vulnerable people much better than we used to (both institutionally and individually), and we have gotten much better at treatment and understanding the basic science behind the disease (remember when we thought this was primarily a respiratory disease?).

Getting those deaths down to to the current level has been extraordinarily costly.

[killramos]

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Cbc news: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hospi...nada-1.5724107


So cases going up, hospitalization and deaths down or flat. Did all the vulnerable population die? Doesn't seem like it. Is this a head fake and the wave of deaths are coming any day now?



But, for a country the size of Canada, fewer than 10 deaths per day seems pretty manageable. If that trend is stable, we are okay.

All of the people who died were going to die anyway, we just might have accelerated it by a few months.

[ExtraSlow]

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All of the people who died were going to die anyway, we just might have accelerated it by a few months.

That's my gut feel too, but I have nothing to back it up.

[pheoxs]

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Cbc news: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hospi...nada-1.5724107


So cases going up, hospitalization and deaths down or flat. Did all the vulnerable population die? Doesn't seem like it. Is this a head fake and the wave of deaths are coming any day now?



But, for a country the size of Canada, fewer than 10 deaths per day seems pretty manageable. If that trend is stable, we are okay.

I posted a study a page back that is suggesting (still not peer reviewed yet though) that masks are helping people get less of an infectious load early on thus it's not hitting them as hard. So less severe illnesses. Couple that with no more outbreaks in care facilities and doctors better understanding how to treat the illness you get faster recoveries in the hospital's as well.

That being said there's still indication of long term implications of catching covid so masks need to stay but overall things are a lot calmer now

[Xtrema]

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That's my gut feel too, but I have nothing to back it up.

I believe all new infections are mostly people under 40 which has a very low death rate.

[max_boost]

How sick are the new batch? None of them tweeting their covid experiences!?

[SJW]

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How sick are the new batch? None of them tweeting their covid experiences!?

Just Alyssa Milano. We should all be scared now.

[pheoxs]

I have a feeling (with absolutely no basis) we'll see a solid drop in cases this week. I think a lot more people got tested in the weeks leading up to and beginning of school out of fear of things. Now we'll see it level off a bunch. Lots of new cases over the weekend but Sat was also 50% more tests than we've ever done before.

My guess with 0% chance of being accurate:
Today we still see a fair number of cases ~130 as they catch up on the backlog of tests.
Wed/Thurs we see sub 100 cases again for one of the days. Say 90 one day and 110 another day.
Friday we see 75 cases.

End of the week YYC drops from 489 active cases down to 420

[Xtrema]

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How sick are the new batch? None of them tweeting their covid experiences!?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/com...what_was_your/

1st of all, take it with a grain of salt just like other social media.

But it's still ranges from meh to OMG I can't breath.

[revelations]

With Flu season around the corner, if 1 person a day dying, is considered a pandemic in Canada, we will no doubt be under shutdown/ lock-down again. Panic driven politicians.

[Xtrema]

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With Flu season around the corner, if 1 person a day dying, is considered a pandemic in Canada, we will no doubt be under shutdown/ lock-down again. Panic driven politicians.

Death has not been used for metric for lock down any more, infection rate is.

See Israel.

There will be sector by sector lock down in the fall. Don't expect full lock down we had in the past. In some metric, we already have sector lock down right now, Karaoke is still banned and same for group singing activities I assume.

Also, COVID has killed ~50/day so far in Canada. Although most of them are early months before we has all the measures implemented and know how to deal with it.

[revelations]

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Death has not been used for metric for lock down any more, infection rate is.

See Israel.

There will be sector by sector lock down in the fall. Don't expect full lock down we had in the past. In some metric, we already have sector lock down right now, Karaoke is still banned and same for group singing activities I assume.

Then we need to lock everything down as the cold and flu season will result in hundreds of thousands of new cases of people with an infectious disease. Most will not be in hospitals or dying.

[ExtraSlow]

Annual flu deaths in canada is ~3500. Since flu season is roughly half a year, that's something like 180 people a day if I'm marthing right. Now this year, will we see those same 180 PLUS another 100, 200, 500 or what?

Any nobody should take my comments to mean I'm downplaying this virus. I'm taking personal steps to lower my risk of infection and lower my risk of transmitting to vulnerable family members too. Just not sure that as a society, we should be taking widespread actions beyond that.

[killramos]

Well with the lockdowns we should expect lower non covid flu deaths too presumably.

I don’t think anyone is debating that lockdowns and restrictions result in fewer deaths and infections. Pretty hard to get the flu if you are locked in your house.

The debate is whether it’s all worth it in the long run.

[max_boost]

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https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/com...what_was_your/

1st of all, take it with a grain of salt just like other social media.

But it's still ranges from meh to OMG I can't breath.

How are the fit ones doing? The ones who are deemed healthy, no preexisting, can bench their own body weight and deadlift double. Fk it I want Covid to see what all the fuss is about lol

[ExtraSlow]

Maybe it can be like "the purge" where we get 2 weeks to do whatever we want, and then everyone locks down for 3 weeks after, and it'll kill a bunch of risk takers. That would work without issues, right?

[Xtrema]

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Annual flu deaths in canada is ~3500. Since flu season is roughly half a year, that's something like 180 people a day if I'm marthing right. Now this year, will we see those same 180 PLUS another 100, 200, 500 or what?

Any nobody should take my comments to mean I'm downplaying this virus. I'm taking personal steps to lower my risk of infection and lower my risk of transmitting to vulnerable family members too. Just not sure that as a society, we should be taking widespread actions beyond that.

Current measure will also lower typical flu deaths. So expect those numbers will be lowered this coming season. Also AHS also order more seasonal vaccines so expect more uptakes in vaccine this coming winter.

Most of the 9000 Canada COVID deaths happened during March-May.

Also you marthed, it's 19/day for normal flu death. 50/day for COVID if we use March-Sep. But it's ~100/day if we shorten the period to Mar to May when we didn't know how to deal with it.