Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[killramos]

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Payroll tax holiday is the most idiotic way of trying to help this situation. Literally just helps rich people moreso and does almost nothing for people making minimum wage or unemployed. Dip shit just wants to try and use any situation to make the rich richer.

Sounds awesome to me. We should make the holiday permanent lol

[HuMz]

Italy just shutdown everything but essential services. Anyone who wants to just let this run its course is insane. That would collapse the country, and you would see CFR's rates closer to 10 when the damage is all said and done, not too mention all the dead bodies from ordinary hospital procedures that couldn't be done.

[killramos]

On more news, something I haven’t heard much about in like 10 years,

Folding at home is working on Coronavirus now! So get on it and donate some cycles for the cause!

Haha

https://www.macrumors.com/how-to/use...t-coronavirus/

[Buster]

Mortality will not go up in a linear fashion with the number of cases, however, which is something that people aren't seeming to grasp. Right now, the policy guys are trying to figure out a way to keep the number of infected low enough that it doesn't overwhelm the hospitals. That might keep it to 0.6%. However, if we don't succeed in flattening the curve and the cases do overwhelm the hospitals, it is likely that the mortality will go up exponentially. It is why the @tirebob logic is flawed for this virus: it's not about whether or not someone has the ability to fight the virus or not, it's whether or not someone can survive the virus with treatment or not. The "social distancing" policies and restrictions are designed to ensure maximal survival of those that are treatable but otherwise dead.

[lasimmon]

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I wonder if Stampede will be on this year.

Heard from a source today that they will be cancelling.

Houston rodeo was just cancelled.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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OK, you've posted this before (as have other people).... but what about all the people that get the season flu that don't get sick enough to get hospitalized or tested (and therefore do not become part of that statistic pool).

I'd argue that the number of people that catch the seasonal flu and never become a statistic (ie: hospitalized or tested) = the number of people that catch Corona virus and never become a statistic (ie: hospitalized or tested).

That seems logical to me.... but not much logic is used these days.

I've actually addressed that before as well, but it certainly does also apply to the flu, the difference is we have decades of data instead of weeks of data gathered in a panic, and people who have spent their entire lives studying it, so we have a much better idea. Non-reporters always affect statistics, but the more data we have the better we can account for it. In this case in particular, pretty well the only people being tested are those with the more severe symptoms (understandably so), which excludes the majority of patients since most people do not even need hospitalization. Several pages back when I was quoting that biomthemitician and viral epidemiologist, she suggested it was more like 0.7% or lower. Germany is apparently expecting 0.6%.

So really I think we're 'arguing' the same thing - the current death rates are grossly inflated and when the dust settles, will likely end up being similar to the regular flu, maybe slightly higher. I would bet the annual flu will end up killing more people than the Coronavirus, but nobody is even talking about that.

[Buster]

There is ZERO chance the mortality rate of this disease will be comparable to the flu.

[blitz]

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So really I think we're 'arguing' the same thing - the current death rates are grossly inflated and when the dust settles, will likely end up being similar to the regular flu, maybe slightly higher. I would bet the annual flu will end up killing more people than the Coronavirus, but nobody is even talking about that.

More people die from the flu because more people get the flu.

If Covid-19 becomes as common as the flu, there would be way more people dead. That's what everyone is trying to prevent.

[pheoxs]

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I've actually addressed that before as well, but it certainly does also apply to the flu, the difference is we have decades of data instead of weeks of data gathered in a panic, and people who have spent their entire lives studying it, so we have a much better idea. Non-reporters always affect statistics, but the more data we have the better we can account for it. In this case in particular, pretty well the only people being tested are those with the more severe symptoms (understandably so), which excludes the majority of patients since most people do not even need hospitalization. Several pages back when I was quoting that biomthemitician and viral epidemiologist, she suggested it was more like 0.7% or lower. Germany is apparently expecting 0.6%.

So really I think we're 'arguing' the same thing - the current death rates are grossly inflated and when the dust settles, will likely end up being similar to the regular flu, maybe slightly higher. I would bet the annual flu will end up killing more people than the Coronavirus, but nobody is even talking about that.

You're also arguing numbers during the outbreak/growth phase of a virus versus the common flu is plateau'd and more steady state.

Italy has 6.6% death vs confirmed cases right now. Even if you assume lots of people haven't been tested there are also a lot of people that are infected now and will die. Even if 0 people from now onward get infected the death rate will continue to rise for the next 2 weeks. Italy's flu death rate is around 8-9 per 100k people. So that means 5,000-6,500 people per year die, that's 550 a month roughly. Today 200 people died, in one day.

In US news, turnip man supposed to do a press conference at 8 or 9 pm (conflicting sources) to address things. Anyone want to take a wager on what he'll say?

Given that he called a emergency meeting to pull health officials out of testifying at a oversight meeting only to announce there was no meeting and then later in the day announced that top level corona virus related meetings are now considered classified ... I don't have much faith in what he'll say. Pretty sure markets are going to dive hard tomorrow.

[AndyL]

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The realistic number for mortality for corona virus will likely fall in the 0.6% range Maybe a bit higher, maybe a bit lower. I think that's about what the Koreans found based on their far more extensive testing. This is a lot lower than people are speculating in some areas of the media. However, even at 0.6%, that's much much higher than the flu.

South Korea has a hospital capacity of 12beds/1000 - Canada has 2.58/1000 that's the biggest difference. South Korea's fatalities mostly occured while waiting for a bed.

Italy has 3.54 beds per thousand fyi.

[got_mike33]

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_e...70_to_2018.svg

Surprisingly low human lifespan before the modern age.

The infant mortality rate was significantly higher back then. People who made it past their younger years still typically lived into their 70s.

[90_Shelby]

I heard a kid at the daycare in the Suncor building tested positive and apparently they shut it down this afternoon. Can anyone confirm this?

Edit: Confirmed. From what I understand, kid and family got back from Vacation 2 weeks ago, unsure if the kid got it from travel or community transmission.

[nickyh]

A family who recently came back their vacation decided it was a great idea to send their 2 kids to Bow Valley daycare, they advised us last night.
Everything is now pending the test result and what AHS advises the daycare to do.

Never cool to send kids with fevers to daycare but even more of an asshole move given the current situation.

[jutes]

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A family who recently came back their vacation decided it was a great idea to send their 2 kids to Bow Valley daycare, they advised us last night.
Everything is now pending the test result and what AHS advises the daycare to do.

Never cool to send kids with fevers to daycare but even more of an asshole move given the current situation.

This type of shit is why we will never advance as a species, we are too emotional and too selfish/idiotic. This situation isn't so much as being an asshole, but grounds for charges if anyone gets infected and dies. What fucking moron goes on vacation, comes back with fever symptoms and sends off their little shit offspring to infect other people?

[beyond_ban]

I work in BVS, nice knowing y'all

[Disoblige]

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This type of shit is why we will never advance as a species, we are too emotional and too selfish/idiotic. This situation isn't so much as being an asshole, but grounds for charges if anyone gets infected and dies. What fucking moron goes on vacation, comes back with fever symptoms and sends off their little shit offspring to infect other people?

Life revolves about them obviously. Question is why aren't we bowing to these people everytime they enter the room?

[kertejud2]

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Finally some sense in this thread. Let the virus have at it and it will filter out the weak. Ever see Alpha predators in Africa kill the weak/old/injured on the Savannah? Same thing needs to happen to humans, if it's your time then so be it. We all die eventually.

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This type of shit is why we will never advance as a species, we are too emotional and too selfish/idiotic. This situation isn't so much as being an asshole, but grounds for charges if anyone gets infected and dies. What fucking moron goes on vacation, comes back with fever symptoms and sends off their little shit offspring to infect other people?

One of these is the joke but I'm not sure which...

[Buster]

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And yet they had a major surveillance failure, largely policy driven, exacerbated by a testing bottleneck.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...244580864.html

I think it has become clear over the last couple of weeks that you were correct on your assessment here.

Although I think the issues that have arisen seem to be much longer term than Trump's administration.

I hope that once the dust gets knocked off the bureaucracy and the red tape, that the Americans can get the machine lubricated properly and revved up. They have the pieces in place, but don't seem to be able to get them utilized.

[suntan]

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I work in BVS, nice knowing y'all

Shit, went to the CIBC there today, I'm ded.

[Kg810]

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I heard a kid at the daycare in the Suncor building tested positive and apparently they shut it down this afternoon. Can anyone confirm this?

Edit: Confirmed. From what I understand, kid and family got back from Vacation 2 weeks ago, unsure if the kid got it from travel or community transmission.

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A family who recently came back their vacation decided it was a great idea to send their 2 kids to Bow Valley daycare, they advised us last night.
Everything is now pending the test result and what AHS advises the daycare to do.

Never cool to send kids with fevers to daycare but even more of an asshole move given the current situation.

Are you guys talking about the same case? Or is Suncor daycare and Bow Valley daycare both fucked lol?