Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[Buster]

I would be surprised to discover a widespread immunity in California. I wouldn't be shocked, though.

It seems very difficult to not have the infection rate go vertical quite quickly after hotspots emerge. I don't know how California could have kept it at a moderate level for 3-5 months.

[suntan]

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I would be surprised to discover a widespread immunity in California. I wouldn't be shocked, though.

It seems very difficult to not have the infection rate go vertical quite quickly after hotspots emerge. I don't know how California could have kept it at a moderate level for 3-5 months.

Because in the pre-panic days, if you had pneumonia the doc would send you home with an inhaler and tell you to rest. If you had it for three more days he'd tell you to come back and he'd write you a scrip for antibiotics. Viral pneumonias burn out after a few days, bacterial ones can linger.

I've had pneumonia twice. Both times I got an inhaler. The first one was gone after a couple of days. The second time, I went back for antibiotics because I still felt awful. Then it cleared up. Still took about five days. That was last year this time.

Oh yeah, it felt like I was going to die both times.

I've also had the flu twice. Both times I was so sick I could hardly stand up.

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My wife is convinced that she's already had Covid. We returned from Mexico in late January and a week and half later she was super sick (fever, dry cough, super achy) for nearly 2 weeks. So who the heck knows.... I'm really curious to see testing results of random people across North America. Has there been any controlled testing of 'non-sick' people in Canada yet?

Ha ha, no. Health Canada are a bunch of morons.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...-14-years-ago/

Late on the night of Dec. 30 last year, an alert flashed across an online network known as ProMED, a monitoring system for emerging diseases used by hospitals around the world. “Urgent notice,” the notification said. “Pneumonia of unknown cause.”

The message relayed details of an unusual outbreak around a market in Wuhan, China, to more than 800,000 members on the ProMED network, which is run by the International Society of Infectious Diseases. Few details were known, but given the ferocity of the virus, it warned medical institutions in the region “to strengthen multidisciplinary professional forces such as respiratory, infectious diseases, and intensive medicine in a targeted manner … and improve emergency plans for medical treatment.”

This is when China finally had to admit this thing existed. So it's been circulating for a while.

BUT WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!

[jutes]

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Ha ha, no. Health Canada are a bunch of morons.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...-14-years-ago/

"Canada’s risk is much, much lower than that of many countries,” Dr. Tam told MPs in Ottawa on Jan. 29, a month after the government was alerted to the outbreak at a market in Wuhan, China. This was four days after a man had arrived in Toronto from Wuhan and became the country’s first case of the disease.

“It’s going to be rare,” she said. “It doesn’t matter how few those cases are, we are preparing the whole country in the event that you might pick up a rare case.”

[sabad66]

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"Canada’s risk is much, much lower than that of many countries,” Dr. Tam told MPs in Ottawa on Jan. 29, a month after the government was alerted to the outbreak at a market in Wuhan, China. This was four days after a man had arrived in Toronto from Wuhan and became the country’s first case of the disease.

“It’s going to be rare,” she said. “It doesn’t matter how few those cases are, we are preparing the whole country in the event that you might pick up a rare case.”

it's almost like this has been a rapidly evolving situation where things have been significantly changing week by week.

indeed

[jutes]

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it's almost like this has been a rapidly evolving situation where things have been significantly changing week by week.

indeed

That's the excuses I've been hearing A LOT from everyone "we are in uncharted waters" "rapidly evolving situation". This is what happens when incompetent people are in charge of government, they are strictly chosen based on diversity and gender, not merit. We are currently in a situation people are at home, terrified and dependent on government, a leftist's wet dream.

[Disoblige]

You know what I realized in the past couple weeks?

What starts with an "O", and ends in "nions", and makes you cry?



That's right, Opinions.

[suntan]

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"Canada’s risk is much, much lower than that of many countries,” Dr. Tam told MPs in Ottawa on Jan. 29, a month after the government was alerted to the outbreak at a market in Wuhan, China. This was four days after a man had arrived in Toronto from Wuhan and became the country’s first case of the disease.

“It’s going to be rare,” she said. “It doesn’t matter how few those cases are, we are preparing the whole country in the event that you might pick up a rare case.”

That was really the only time she was right. IFR is looking to be around 0.37%, targeted quarantine would have worked just as well.

Wow who knew reading anecdotes about outlier cases doesn't do anything productive.

[suntan]

IC model is available. Not a single unit test, or even integration test. What a joke.

https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model

Doesn't seem to include Neil Ferguson's original code written in C.

Guess I'll spin it up in Docker and see if I can replicate the original results. Probably not though as they've changed the way this model works.

[Buster]

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That was really the only time she was right. IFR is looking to be around 0.37%, targeted quarantine would have worked just as well.

Wow who knew reading anecdotes about outlier cases doesn't do anything productive.

When left unmitigaged/suppressed, the fatality rate would be much higher than .37%. When they determine the IFR in Italy eventually, it will be much higher.

[blitz]

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This is what happens when incompetent people are in charge of government, they are strictly chosen based on diversity and gender, not merit. We are currently in a situation people are at home, terrified and dependent on government, a leftist's wet dream.

I bet your one of the "being a white male is super hard these days" crowd.

Just FYI, the US government is not diverse in any way at the moment. How are they doing?

[Antonito]

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That's the excuses I've been hearing A LOT from everyone "we are in uncharted waters" "rapidly evolving situation". This is what happens when incompetent people are in charge of government, they are strictly chosen based on diversity and gender, not merit. We are currently in a situation people are at home, terrified and dependent on government, a leftist's wet dream.

Noted leftist who hire based on gender and diversity: China, USA. I think you're trying to make Trumpists cry

[suntan]

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When left unmitigaged/suppressed, the fatality rate would be much higher than .37%. When they determine the IFR in Italy eventually, it will be much higher.

IHME models presumed full social distancing. They've been disastrously wrong - vastly overestimated ICU bed usage and deaths. Last update was yesterday, and they still got UK's death numbers utterly wrong.

You do know about the IHME models, yes?

Also California. And Oregon. Oregon had patient zero (we presume, but probably not), if you believe that one can be infected and shed virus for five days before symptoms appear, then he basically infected everyone in the airport and the plane he was on.

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I bet your one of the "being a white male is super hard these days" crowd.

Just FYI, the US government is not diverse in any way at the moment. How are they doing?

Death/million is not anywhere near Italy/Spain/France, their testing regime has ramped up greatly, NYC is at their peak right now for deaths and will now go down. Many states have very few cases, far below even the most optimistic projections.

[suntan]

The narrative on this is going to turn very quickly.

Due to the Iceland/SK/DP and now German data, along with the strategies that the Dutch and Sweden took, it's clear that the general quarantine was an overreaction.

Many European countries will lift general quarantine very soon - I suspect some by next week.

[suntan]

Italy just plain sucks.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...01971219303285

[Ca_Silvia13]

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The narrative on this is going to turn very quickly.

Due to the Iceland/SK/DP and now German data, along with the strategies that the Dutch and Sweden took, it's clear that the general quarantine was an overreaction.

Many European countries will lift general quarantine very soon - I suspect some by next week.

This does not surprise me in the slightest.

[suntan]

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This does not surprise me in the slightest.

Has to be lifted soon. Economies have to restart ASAP. Liquidity is already an issue. We may not survive that.

[suntan]

From today's NYC Cuomo's presser:

[lasimmon]

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Has to be lifted soon. Economies have to restart ASAP. Liquidity is already an issue. We may not survive that.

Meanwhile the WFH orders will likely last till June.

[The_Rural_Juror]

Passive aggressive dumb ferret checking in.

[Kloubek]

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it's clear that the general quarantine was an overreaction.

In retrospect, think it may have been more prudent to only shutting in those at risk. However, when this all started, the data was limited. We certainly could not (and cannot) rely on the Chinese data.

As disasterous as this has been for the economy, if it turned out to have been a worse disease then we would all now be thankful we took such a hard stance. Hindsight is 20/20 they say...

I also don't think there is enough data to say that if we didn't have a general quarantine that things wouldn't have been a lot worse. Those who would not be quarantined would still be passing it to those at risk to some degree and more people absolutely would have died as our health care system would still have been overwhelmed at least somewhat. How many extra deaths? Who really knows.