Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[nzwasp]

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Over a year later and hospital capacity hasn't increased? Aren't they supposed to use the bottom of the wave to boost healthcare beds and capacity so we don't keep going into lockdowns? Just two more weeks people, we NEEEEDDDD to flatten this curve.....just to buy us time to increase capacity. Right.



Why? No way I'm hiding in my house especially with summer coming. Anytime I go out I see elderly people who can barely move out in the middle of the day, no way in hell they should be out in public in a "pandemic". These are the at-risk population we should be protecting, but they don't care. I'm done with this BS and so is everyone else it seems. Besides wearing masks, it's business as usual here, people are ignoring those stupid arrows on the aisles and restaurants are full to C19 capacity.

The capacity did increase to 700 at one point and now it seems like that capacity is 300 or so again. Maybe the extra 400 was just surge capacity not actually allocated to covid patients.

[ExtraSlow]

Once the vulnerable people in my life have been vaccinated, I don't forsee me giving many shits about that "Flatten the curve" stuff. I've been following the rules for selfish reasons so far, and I can't see myself getting much more altruistic in the next few months.

[Buster]

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Once the vulnerable people in my life have been vaccinated, I don't forsee me giving many shits about that "Flatten the curve" stuff. I've been following the rules for selfish reasons so far, and I can't see myself getting much more altruistic in the next few months.

In a couple of months there will be no curve.

[LilDrunkenSmurf]

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Over a year later and hospital capacity hasn't increased? Aren't they supposed to use the bottom of the wave to boost healthcare beds and capacity so we don't keep going into lockdowns? Just two more weeks people, we NEEEEDDDD to flatten this curve.....just to buy us time to increase capacity. Right.



Why? No way I'm hiding in my house especially with summer coming. Anytime I go out I see elderly people who can barely move out in the middle of the day, no way in hell they should be out in public in a "pandemic". These are the at-risk population we should be protecting, but they don't care. I'm done with this BS and so is everyone else it seems. Besides wearing masks, it's business as usual here, people are ignoring those stupid arrows on the aisles and restaurants are full to C19 capacity.

All my parents and in-laws fall into the high risk category, and as stated, I don't want to risk covid lung. I have a friend that caught it in Oct, and is still affected with covid lung. I have a coworker that caught it in Dec, and runs out of breath while talking in meetings. The only place I've really been in the last 12 months, is the gym, and a few restaurants before they were closed to household only.

[killramos]

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In a couple of months there will be no curve.

At what % vaccinated do we expect curves to come down?

Obviously our garbage 4% is too low. But how’s the data out of Israel or even the US looking?

At what point will testing positive even be a concern (since the vaccine has such an effect on severe outcomes).

[pheoxs]

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At what % vaccinated do we expect curves to come down?

Obviously our garbage 4% is too low. But how’s the data out of Israel or even the US looking?

At what point will testing positive even be a concern (since the vaccine has such an effect on severe outcomes).

My understanding is once we actually start vaccinating the people that are a larger portion of the case numbers (18-40 age) that tend to be socializing regardless and tend to also work more front end / customer service / retail jobs then things would decline quickly. Right now most of the people we are vaccinating are at a higher risk of severe outcome if they catch covid but they are likely less at risk to actually catch covid since they probably take things more seriously and avoid the public. (For the most part, not all, obviously).

I think if we can get to May 1st, announce vaccine bookings are available to the general public even if they're slow to get then that's a reasonable point to lift a fair number of things, if people want to do more risky activities then they can also get a jab.

I am curious how the rollout will be, we have enough doses enroute to vaccinate everyone at least once by mid June so I wonder when the general public will open up. If its not in early May then I can't see them getting through people quick enough.

[ExtraSlow]

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In a couple of months there will be no curve.

I believe this to be true. Hoping the "beginning of the end" is pretty obvious in 4-6 weeks.

[Buster]

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My understanding is once we actually start vaccinating the people that are a larger portion of the case numbers (18-40 age) that tend to be socializing regardless and tend to also work more front end / customer service / retail jobs then things would decline quickly. Right now most of the people we are vaccinating are at a higher risk of severe outcome if they catch covid but they are likely less at risk to actually catch covid since they probably take things more seriously and avoid the public. (For the most part, not all, obviously).

I think if we can get to May 1st, announce vaccine bookings are available to the general public even if they're slow to get then that's a reasonable point to lift a fair number of things, if people want to do more risky activities then they can also get a jab.

I am curious how the rollout will be, we have enough doses enroute to vaccinate everyone at least once by mid June so I wonder when the general public will open up. If its not in early May then I can't see them getting through people quick enough.

I think we will be process constrained rather than supply constrained in 3 weeks or so?

- - - Updated - - -

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At what % vaccinated do we expect curves to come down?

Obviously our garbage 4% is too low. But how’s the data out of Israel or even the US looking?

At what point will testing positive even be a concern (since the vaccine has such an effect on severe outcomes).

Probably around the 40-50% population mark would be my guess.

It will go from being a general number to a few cases associated with outbreaks in certain areas. Then it will be novelty outbreaks by the fall. Then we will talk about booster shots, and updated multivalent vaccines to handle variants if they still think that is the case. If we are unlucky, we will get a combo flu shot and covid shot next fall (ie 2022).

[ExtraSlow]

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I think we will be process constrained rather than supply constrained in 3 weeks or so?

I was really hoping we'd be at that point already.

[FraserB]

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I am curious how the rollout will be, we have enough doses enroute to vaccinate everyone at least once by mid June so I wonder when the general public will open up.

Right now, between what has been delivered and planned deliveries, we can expect to have a total of 2,085,725 doses delivered by June 1. There are about 3,400,000 eligible adults in Alberta. So we're a bit short of having enough by mid June to give everyone their first shot, especially since some of those doses will be going out as second doses.

[pheoxs]

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Right now, between what has been delivered and planned deliveries, we can expect to have a total of 2,085,725 doses delivered by June 1. There are about 3,400,000 eligible adults in Alberta. So we're a bit short of having enough by mid June to give everyone their first shot, especially since some of those doses will be going out as second doses.

True but there are 36.5 million doses coming by end of June for Canada (not counting 1.5m from US now) and only 30 million eligible adults so there has to for sure be enough for end of June which is why I'm presuming mid-June? Though I guess there's a ~ week gap between shipping, distribution, and jabs beginning probably.

[FraserB]

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True but there are 36.5 million doses coming by end of June for Canada (not counting 1.5m from US now) and only 30 million eligible adults so there has to for sure be enough for end of June which is why I'm presuming mid-June? Though I guess there's a ~ week gap between shipping, distribution, and jabs beginning probably.

The discrepancy is government sound bites versus what is shown as a forecasted delivery plus what has been delivered.

Right now, the number that the government is willing to put in writing is 18.743 million doses by June 1. So they either plan to greatly revise what is there now, or deliver the remainder in June.

[revelations]

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Yep, look to gyms to close again because, obviously the most vulnerable are getting sick from the people there. Complete cesspools!!

Weve plateaued at 260 hospitalized cases, and that will no doubt start to climb right back up and the government will start to move backwards to step 1 again, but instead of waiting 3 weeks, they will do that immediately next announcement.

https://www.alberta.ca/enhanced-publ...px#PathForward

Yep, as expected the # of people in hospitals has risen slightly from a low of 250 early March to almost 300 today.

But as Jutes correctly mentioned, there is no 'emergency increase in space' to allow society and the economy (which pays for the hospitals) moving back again.

300 people in hospital in a province of 5 million, plus the slowdown in REGULAR cold/flu season means much more AHS resources being available to help with this.

For context, the province has some ~9000 acute care beds + 28,000 continuing care beds as a capacity - representing some 37,000 beds total.

[Xtrema]

Am I selfish to think that if I want a shot and get a shot within 24hr is when this thing is over?

But seeing various insta feeds from niece and nephews, it's over 2 weeks ago.

[Brent.ff]

No stage 3

[Xtrema]

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No stage 3

Thanks Zoomers.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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No stage 3

Fuck.
"Wearing thin" doesn't even scratch the surface, anymore.

[Disoblige]

Hinshaw's worry on the ICUs spiking similar to November in a 6 week period is such a shitty comparison. I don't agree with her.
Lots of things have changed: cold weather and holidays increasing the amount of indoor gatherings, and the fact that vaccines were further away from reality. And yes, I am aware the new variants are out there too.

I am not surprised they delayed Phase 3.
But I honestly see more and more people bending the rules as time goes on, and I personally don't see a big problem with it either depending on what the context is. If we are at a point shortly where people who wanted a vaccine got one, what's the big deal then? Open every thing up!

[Xtrema]

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Hinshaw worry on the ICU's spiking similar to November's spike is such a shitty comparison. I don't agree with her.
Lots of things have changed, cold weather and Christmas holidays regarding indoor gatherings, and the fact that vaccines were further away from reality.

I am not surprised they delayed Phase 3. But I honestly see more and more people bending the rules, and I personally don't see a big problem with it either depending on what the context is.

I think spring break will spike the numbers. By then I hope at least all the 60+ have the 1st dose so everyone in hospital will be under 60 crowd and probably won't take up much ICU spaces.

Unless single dose does fuck all for the 60+, then I can see we are back to Dec in a month at this rate.

[Brent.ff]

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Hinshaw's worry on the ICUs spiking similar to November in a 6 week period is such a shitty comparison. I don't agree with her.
Lots of things have changed, cold weather and holidays regarding indoor gatherings, and the fact that vaccines were further away from reality. And yes, I am aware the new variants are out there too.

Easter is 2 weeks out.. they're definitely worried about that