Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[Buster]

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Well even by our current numbers - Alberta's sitting at that 2% projection WHO said in January to expect. Canada is at 2.25%

So where's this magical 0.38% going to come from? 1/5th fewer deaths than currently experiencing?

Again... We can't calculate the denominator so these percentages have no meaning.

[AndyL]

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Again... We can't calculate the denominator so these percentages have no meaning.

No but we have an idea what were currently achieving based on admissions/confirmations and deaths of the overall - Alberta's running 2%, nationally 2.25%... So a projection with a "worst case" death rate of less than 1/5th that number...

Just trying to avoid panic? But what happens when we blow that number out of the water? They come back and say we weren't following social distancing rules and hygiene? It's a ridiculous low rate for a projection...

[duaner]

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No but we have an idea what were currently achieving based on admissions/confirmations and deaths of the overall - Alberta's running 2%, nationally 2.25%... So a projection with a "worst case" death rate of less than 1/5th that number...

Just trying to avoid panic? But what happens when we blow that number out of the water? They come back and say we weren't following social distancing rules and hygiene? It's a ridiculous low rate for a projection...

It is very important to note the differences in where the numbers are coming from regarding cases. The WHO, and others, are basing mortality numbers on "confirmed" cases, which is completely wrong and makes the situation seem much worse than it is. (Purposeful fear-mongering?)

What the Alberta government has done, is consider that there are, and are going to be, far more people infected that don't need to get tested. This number is much more realistic, even if it is all "educated" guesswork. I read that the UK government is doing this as well.


COVID-19, although particularly nasty, especially for those with underlying conditions, may not even be as bad as the common flu in terms of mortality.

[arcticcat522]

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But like... more toxic water

At our lake the hatred between the townies and cottagers goes waaaaayyyyy back, doesn’t help though when Kevin start running people over with his boat though... or when the rich kids kill themselves driving drunk and the parents turn around and sue the poor wait staff that over served them (and would have been fired if they cut the off)

What lake are you on? One of the big 3 or a little one?

[jutes]

If we remove the deaths from nursing homes and those who are 70+, then this looks like a massive over reaction as the mortality rate for those under 65 is under 1%. If we don’t want to overwhelm the hospitals, then set up provincial segregation facilities for treatment/care strictly for severe Rona cases. The longer this goes on the worse off everyone will be in the long run. 25% unemployment for any province to have is not acceptable under any circumstances, especially if it can be prevented.

[duaner]

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If we remove the deaths from nursing homes and those who are 70+, then this looks like a massive over reaction as the mortality rate for those under 65 is under 1%. If we don’t want to overwhelm the hospitals, then set up provincial segregation facilities for treatment/care strictly for severe Rona cases. The longer this goes on the worse off everyone will be in the long run. 25% unemployment for any province to have is not acceptable under any circumstances, especially if it can be prevented.

Even considering nursing home deaths and those over 70, it actually is less than 1%, probably by quite a bit. The main issue is that, as per my previous post, many organizations, such as WHO, are not taking into consideration those who are infected but don't get tested because their symptoms are mild. The number of people who actually have the virus could easily be 5-10X more (or higher) than the confirmed numbers. That means the actual morality rate is significantly lower than what is often being reported. That puts down into flu territory, or lower.

[ercchry]

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What lake are you on? One of the big ones or a little one?

Little one, had a friend working at the lake joe club when that all went down though. Luckily she didn’t have a shift that day though

[ThePenIsMightier]

Another fatality at Mackenzie Towne bringing the body count to 13 as of April 8. Awful!

High River - hang on to your hats. They are about to be in a very serious situation.
If you're into praying, please start to send some prayers to High River.

[Buster]

People are too concerned about mortality rate. One, as I mentioned, right now it is an unknowable number, so not worth discussing until we can collect better data. Two, mortality rate is not as relevant as total deaths (or total deaths per capita). Three, total deaths go up dramatically with an increase in infection rate - we don't know what the denominator is, but we do know that deaths don't scale linearly with that denominator, they go vertical once you run out of healthcare system capacity.

[duaner]

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People are too concerned about mortality rate. One, as I mentioned, right now it is an unknowable number, so not worth discussing until we can collect better data. Two, mortality rate is not as relevant as total deaths (or total deaths per capita). Three, total deaths go up dramatically with an increase in infection rate - we don't know what the denominator is, but we do know that deaths don't scale linearly with that denominator, they go vertical once you run out of healthcare system capacity.

How is total deaths per capita even a useful number, never mind more relevant than mortality rate?

[AndyL]

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Another fatality at Mackenzie Towne bringing the body count to 13 as of April 8. Awful!

High River - hang on to your hats. They are about to be in a very serious situation.
If you're into praying, please start to send some prayers to High River.

There's not much happening down here...

[Buster]

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How is total deaths per capita even a useful number, never mind more relevant than mortality rate?

Same reason we scale every cause of death as a per-capita number. You want to determine the impact a disease is having on the population. I didn't say mortality rate wasn't relevant, I said it is unknowable - and things that are unknowable, like things that are not falsifiable, are of limited usefulness. That will change in the next while as we ramp up capacity to do population-level testing. But arguing about mortality rates right now is a fruitless exercise.

[revelations]

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If we remove the deaths from nursing homes and those who are 70+, then this looks like a massive over reaction as the mortality rate for those under 65 is under 1%. If we don’t want to overwhelm the hospitals, then set up provincial segregation facilities for treatment/care strictly for severe Rona cases. The longer this goes on the worse off everyone will be in the long run. 25% unemployment for any province to have is not acceptable under any circumstances, especially if it can be prevented.

25% unemployment means serious societal problems. Money from Ottawa or Edmonton wont matter anymore as people are losing their minds (as many are) and domestic violence begins to skyrocket (as it already has).

Far far more serious than the result now.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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There's not much happening down here...

Unfortunately, I strongly believe that's about to change.

[mr2mike]

I agree. Not even concerned about getting sick and I'm staying away from people but fuck me, this place will be a ghost town with everyone in poverty.

[flipstah]

Detroit Alberta

[vengie]

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Unfortunately, I strongly believe that's about to change.

You can’t make a prediction like that and leave us hanging....

[ThePenIsMightier]

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You can’t make a prediction like that and leave us hanging....

I'm sorry I can't really say more. "Prediction" might not be the right word. We will be hearing a lot more about High River in the next 24-72 hours.

[JfuckinC]

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Detroit Alberta

I lose sleep over this thought. Have been for a couple years lol.

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I'm sorry I can't really say more. "Prediction" might not be the right word. We will be hearing a lot more about High River in the next 24-72 hours.

You’re like a middle aged lady posting vague shit on Facebook haha

[AndyL]

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I'm sorry I can't really say more. "Prediction" might not be the right word. We will be hearing a lot more about High River in the next 24-72 hours.

Seriously doubt it. Beside the cab company closing up for covid (say no symptoms but isolating) there's a handfull of people around here with something (including me). Daughter had to visit emergency - ear infection, they were in and out in 25 minutes... So our hospital is near empty.

That said we've got a whole bunch of nursing homes.