Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[killramos]

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Do we think these projections are going to be any more reliable than the ones from earlier on (that weren't remotely close)?

Curve fitting is hard

[Xtrema]

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Do we think these projections are going to be any more reliable than the ones from earlier on (that weren't remotely close)?

And from the low to peak before lock down, the UK infection rate when B1.1.7 took off was about 400% or 4x increase.

So if we are at 400-500/day without B1.1.7, setting the target to be 2000/day with B1.1.7 seems to be a conservative projection?

The only difference UK locks down after getting wrecked. We are already in a less strict lock down to start with when B1.1.7 starts to show up. Who knows what they experienced applies here.

[FraserB]

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Do we think these projections are going to be any more reliable than the ones from earlier on (that weren't remotely close)?

Doubt it, I’d put more stock in it being a case of the government conjuring up a bogeyman to keep restrictions that projecting based on actual data. All the projections were based on no public health orders and allowing it to run freely, as if he thinks that’s what people have been asking for

The UK variant was identified in September and we have 20 whole cases, but now that people are starting to demand answers, it’s a huge threat that can’t be contained and will put us into 10k+ cases per day

We need a function on here to remind us of a post in 6 weeks when the projections are shown to be nowhere near correct and the government comes out and says it’s just because the health measures are only delaying the impact of the scary mutations and we need to stay shut down just a little bit longer.

[nzwasp]

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I'm sure they are only testing for what's popular. Right now the SA/UK variants are all the rage. With Brazil one getting press in Japan.

CAL20.C is wrecking Cali and surrounding states but it hasn't travelled far but probably not impossible to get in via truckers.

Borders are not close. We are not checking land border crossings and still rely on voluntary 14 days isolation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...297_story.html

It was just a matter of time.

I also see that California lifted the stay at home order and also the curfew so perhaps the CA variant isn't as bad as the others.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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Curve fitting is hard

It must be. Like that time on April 6, 2020 when Jason Kenney announced to Alberta that the modeling showed a probable outcome of 800,000 cases by the end of summer.

https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?x...517ABC712B807E

[killramos]

Some professional advice from me to the alberta government:

Showing your forecasts to people is just a great way to look stupid down the road. Always dodge that ask, and show other people’s forecasts instead.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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Some professional advice from me to the alberta government:

Showing your forecasts to people is just a great way to look stupid down the road. Always dodge that ask, and show other people’s forecasts instead.

Did you get a PL-Eng to stamp that professional advice? I bet I can find one that'll lecture you about "it needs a stamp".

[Sentry]

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It must be. Like that time on April 6, 2020 when Jason Kenney announced to Alberta that the modeling showed a probable outcome of 800,000 cases by the end of summer.

https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?x...517ABC712B807E

[killramos]

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Did you get a PL-Eng to stamp that professional advice? I bet I can find one that'll lecture you about "it needs a stamp".

[Xtrema]

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It must be. Like that time on April 6, 2020 when Jason Kenney announced to Alberta that the modeling showed a probable outcome of 800,000 cases by the end of summer.

https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?x...517ABC712B807E

Or Rob Ford say projection was good and business can resume then got wrecked in December.

[revelations]

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Doubt it, I’d put more stock in it being a case of the government conjuring up a bogeyman to keep restrictions that projecting based on actual data. All the projections were based on no public health orders and allowing it to run freely, as if he thinks that’s what people have been asking for

The UK variant was identified in September and we have 20 whole cases, but now that people are starting to demand answers, it’s a huge threat that can’t be contained and will put us into 10k+ cases per day

We need a function on here to remind us of a post in 6 weeks when the projections are shown to be nowhere near correct and the government comes out and says it’s just because the health measures are only delaying the impact of the scary mutations and we need to stay shut down just a little bit longer.

Yea no kidding, its obvious what the narrative is here and its not C19 anymore. Its going to be the new Super C19 or something else, perhaps Murder Covid?

Cancelling my gym membership now and going to setup my own. As IF gyms have sweet fuck all to do with any of this. Already signed the change.org petition to reopen basic fitness facilities (not group classes) but doubt anything will happen.

[mr2mike]

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I just woke up from a dream where I got a no-mask ticket from walking past a mall kiosk with a dozen smartphones set up for facial recognition. And then when I woke up I had a boner.

@Toilet_X will do some dream analysis for you.

[Toilet_X]

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@Toilet_X will do some dream analysis for you.

My specialty is doing my analysis by TASTE.

[finboy]

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Well if UK variant got in, the full UK lock down has slow the peak infection rate by 50% from 68K/day to 33k/day. So there is that. I'm surprised we have not got any CAL.20C yet.

The key is the projection Shandro presented. They expect cases with restriction to high 2k/day by March, 10k/day without. Sounds like they are preparing us to be in current state until March at the very least.

That’s what I took away from it, the excuses will keep changing until weather improves/vaccines are in steady supply again.

[duaner]

2021 may not be a very good year either:

"British scientists have said the U.K. variant of the coronavirus that is behind a surge in COVID-19 infections there may be not only more transmissible, but also more lethal – with a mortality risk around 30 per cent higher than other variants.

The U.K. variant — known as B.1.1.7 — is also up to 70 per cent more contagious than other coronavirus variants circulating in the U.K. and has already been detected across the world. U.S. health officials have warned it could become the dominant variant there by March."

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...n2W?li=AAggNb9

[killramos]

Today I learned people still use msn.com

[SJW]

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Or Rob Ford say projection was good and business can resume then got wrecked in December.

Rob Ford dead AF.

[Xtrema]

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Rob Ford dead AF.

I was on crack.

[SJW]

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I was on crack.

Aren't we all?

[Tik-Tok]

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Aren't we all?

I'm usually under it.