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Thread: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

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    Study from Stanford:

    The most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID-19 are mandatory stay-at-home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).


    Methods: We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons).


    Results: Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries, including South Korea and Sweden that implemented only lrNPIs (Spain had a non-significant effect). After subtracting the epidemic and lrNPI effects, we find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country. In France, e.g., the effect of mrNPIs was +7% (95CI -5%-19%) when compared with Sweden, and +13% (-12%-38%) when compared with South Korea (positive means pro-contagion). The 95% confidence intervals excluded 30% declines in all 16 comparisons and 15% declines in 11/16 comparisons.


    Conclusions: While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13484

    --------------------------------------------------------

    In other words, the above is EXACTLY what Dr. Michael Burray (MD) and Dr. Ron PAUL (MD) stated early last year. Lockdowns wont help and will kill off the economy and hurt many more people than c19.

    Wear a mask in enclosed, crowded public places (eg. bus, train) and avoid contact with the elderly.
    Last edited by revelations; 01-18-2021 at 04:01 PM.

  2. #12982
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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    Study from Stanford:



    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13484

    --------------------------------------------------------

    In other words, the above is EXACTLY what Dr. Michael Burray (MD) and Dr. Ron PAUL (MD) stated early last year. Lockdowns wont help and will kill off the economy and hurt many more people than c19.

    Wear a mask in enclosed, crowded public places (eg. bus, train) and avoid contact with the elderly.
    Also....

    While we find no evidence of large anti-contagion effects from mandatory stay-at-home and business closure policies, we should acknowledge that the underlying data and methods have important limitations. First, cross-country comparisons are difficult: countries may have different rules, cultures, and relationships between the government and citizenry
    And eventually, even Sweden did a stint of lock down, didn't they?

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-sw...ect/a-56185101

    We looked to Asian countries early on for how to handle this. But now facing the new variants, Taiwan, HK, Japan and even China are all falling to the new strains and spreading locally and NOW they are also doing the hail mary of lock down and reduce business hours.

    Japan is wrecked...
    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ea...id-19-pandemic
    Last edited by Xtrema; 01-18-2021 at 05:48 PM.

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    Is this the future now, large societal lockdowns whenever a new human killer virus is discovered? A complete stop to our way of life over a 0.02% fatality rate, I can’t imagine the chaos when we reach Contagion levels.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    Study from Stanford:



    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13484

    --------------------------------------------------------

    In other words, the above is EXACTLY what Dr. Michael Burray (MD) and Dr. Ron PAUL (MD) stated early last year. Lockdowns wont help and will kill off the economy and hurt many more people than c19.

    Wear a mask in enclosed, crowded public places (eg. bus, train) and avoid contact with the elderly.
    If i read that study correctly, i think they were only looking at early 2020 data? If so I think it's safe to say that the 2nd wave was an entirely different beast. Would be interesting for them to re-run their same analysis on data from the 2nd half of 2020.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabad66 View Post
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    If i read that study correctly, i think they were only looking at early 2020 data? If so I think it's safe to say that the 2nd wave was an entirely different beast. Would be interesting for them to re-run their same analysis on data from the 2nd half of 2020.
    Their data isn't that solid. It's worth a read, but it's not really a good differential analysis. Too many confounding factors: cultural differences, compliance to lockdowns, etc.

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    The vitriol here in early 2020 was disturbing - many devout MSM folk were worshipping the TV and the various cast members that were spewing out the rhetoric. Meanwhile, the marginalized experts and professionals were correctly stating, early on, that the lockdowns and shutdowns will cause more harm than good. The questioners of this obvious fear narrative were also vilified.

    This is exactly the case as shown.

    Now, here we are again in 2021, same C19, same BS. I know its hard to accept, but the masses are being fucked with in a scale that is unprecedented - mainly thanks to not turning off the TV.

    We will have more lockdowns and shutdowns, but the masses will abide by the TV masters. The only data that is 'solid' is raw case numbers that are lead with, every night (even this is not solid).
    Last edited by revelations; 01-18-2021 at 06:20 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    The vitriol here in early 2020 was disturbing - many devout MSM folk were worshipping the TV and the various cast members that were spewing out the rhetoric. Meanwhile, the marginalized experts and professionals were correctly stating, early on, that the lockdowns and shutdowns will cause more harm than good.

    This is exactly the case as shown.

    You do not have sufficient data to make this claim.

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    Exactly in the same way you a) dont have data to show the fear narrative matches or coincides with the severity of C19 and b) the real effectiveness of the C19 vaccine (ie. real world results) - yet this is being spewed as more authoritative than the bible.


    So, here is a study that shows the falsehood of the narrative. Dont want to believe a peer reviewed study by Stanford PhDs? Then all studies are a joke.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jutes View Post
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    This is true, ERs are essentially ghost towns in this country right now and people are afraid of seeking care. If ICU overcapacity was increased over the summer, which was the purpose of the first lockdowns, we wouldn’t need restrictions and curfews this fall. Instead, no one did a single fucking thing to prepare for the second wave everyone knew was coming. This is a collective failure in government and medical systems and the large majority of the population is barring the brunt of their incompetence.
    Where do you get that ER's are ghost towns? I can tell you they aren't and are overfull as ever with ambulances waiting countless hours to offload.
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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    Exactly in the same way you a) dont have data to show the fear narrative matches or coincides with the severity of C19 and b) the real effectiveness of the C19 vaccine (ie. real world results) - yet this is being spewed as more authoritative than the bible.


    So, here is a study that shows the falsehood of the narrative. Dont want to believe a peer reviewed study by Stanford PhDs? Then all studies are a joke.
    I'm not saying its a bad paper, I'm saying it has limitations, and it isn't the smoking gun you think it is.

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    AHS wait times are nothing like they were pre C19. 3-4 hours waiting at most emerg was the norm. I had a medical condition which meant I had to pay close attention to these times on a regular basis, to decide which location was best.

    Now 1/2 -1 hour seems to be the norm.

    https://www.albertahealthservices.ca...waittimes.aspx


    With regards to AHS - non c19 testing labs and clinics are empty, I see my Dr. on a regular basis (1-2x a month) and the walkins are deserted. The Alberta Lab services has severly cut back and close clinics. Its very tough to get routine blood work done unless you book 3-4 weeks in advance.

    Private medical services such as CT scans, have closed temporarily due to lack of patients.

    All this in the middle of a fucking pandemic.
    Last edited by revelations; 01-18-2021 at 06:39 PM.

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    India's been an interesting case. All their metrics (cases, deaths, ICU) are down. Localized herd immunity has apparently been reached, something like 60% in urban centers in the latest serology survey. Their lockdowns were laughable, everyone's been doing the same shit as pre-covid with a small % of people in masks. The majority of the spread today is in the more rural areas. Life has been back to normal in urban areas for months now. Flights are packed, domestic travel is nearly back to normal.

    I dunno if they're fudging their numbers or what, but even with their path to what might've been herd immunity, you'd think the deaths would be huge, but it's a fraction of US deaths. Weird shit.

    Anyways, wanted to point it out, a country where a small government mandated a harsh lockdown, then gave up but put in some restrictions, which now evolved to DGAF seemed to have worked for them. The job market is getting really hot too. Crazy shit.
    Originally posted by SEANBANERJEE
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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    , I see my Dr. on a regular basis (1-2x a month)
    This is strange, I thought psychiatrists were busier than ever?

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    Everything I’ve seen out of India indicates they don’t seem like a country that’s too keen on personal hygiene on a normal day. This probably works in their favour as their immune systems are more resistant to viruses. Meanwhile the western world basically bathes in hand sanitizer and disinfectant, kids can’t go outside and play without parents running after them with Lysol wipes in hand. Can’t give your son a PPJ sandwich for lunch because there is at least one kid with a fatal peanut allergy.

    As far as ER wait times, online searches say all the same thing, locally here anyway. Don’t care what’s happening in places like Toronto as I’m sure its always a shit show.
    Last edited by jutes; 01-18-2021 at 08:09 PM.

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    India can also afford to lose 5-10% of population and the authorities would just LOL.


    Edit: not that anyone is losing anything like that
    Most "hard hit" countries are like 1300/100,000 or ~1% cumulative deaths.
    Last edited by ExtraSlow; 01-18-2021 at 08:15 PM.
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    If there is one thing I know for sure. ES has no Aspen goals

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    Quote Originally Posted by jutes View Post
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    ... wipes in hand. Can’t give your son a PPJ...
    Doesn't sound like something you should be giving a kid.
    Is that like a Rural Reacharound, or, more like a Saskatchewan Steamer?
    *Asking for SKR.

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    *yawn*

    You guiz are funny.

    I spent the evening burning wood and drinking beer with friends who I haven’t seen in 2 months. Who haven’t met my kid.

    Haven’t seen my best friends kid in over 2 months.

    Fuck these lockdowns. Today was the best day of 2020 yet.

    256831CB-F6BB-49C3-95AC-F98791C27B94.jpg
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

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    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    *yawn*

    You guiz are funny.

    I spent the evening burning wood and drinking beer with friends who I haven’t seen in 2 months. Who haven’t met my kid.

    Haven’t seen my best friends kid in over 2 months.

    Fuck these lockdowns. Today was the best day of 2020 yet.

    256831CB-F6BB-49C3-95AC-F98791C27B94.jpg
    I thought it was 2021 now...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Twin_Cam_Turbo View Post
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    I thought it was 2021 now...
    Even better.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePenIsMightier View Post
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    Doesn't sound like something you should be giving a kid.
    Is that like a Rural Reacharound, or, more like a Saskatchewan Steamer?
    *Asking for SKR.
    Too many Pils on a Monday.

    Or not enough.

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