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Thread: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

  1. #6561
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    Back in March there was an Alberta infectious disease specialist talking about how this wouldn't be spread by asymptomatic transmission. I linked it if anyone is interested in listening to the round table.

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    Calgary: High elevation, strong sun, strong UV-C, now summer climate, moist-ish.

    Heck, we might have this thing licked - at least until fall.
    Combustion engine cars - Bwahaha.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xtrema View Post
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    Well initial tests shows that infected will show no symptoms. So it may spread without symptoms which prompted the asymptomatic spread call.

    Now there is enough data to show that's very rare. And they are calling it.

    People shouldn't associate continuation uncovering of the truth as failures.
    When this outbreak started in Europe why wasn't this determined in the weeks leading up to the outbreak in NA? What were the infectious disease researchers in Europe looking in to during that time? That's my point. Why make a bunch of public health orders based on unproven research?

    A lot of people are now realizing this was no big deal unless you're 70+ or pre-existing health conditions. I just don't understand why knowledge learned in the early days from other parts of the world was not taken in to account with the decision making process here. Parts of Europe had it over a month before we got anything here. I truly don't understand, even more now that the US has had 10+ days of rioting and protests. Should there not have a massive explosion of COVID cases? We are at the symptomatic threshold now.

    I believe people making bad decisions based on bad data is a failure. I'm not sure how that's a positive otherwise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ca_Silvia13 View Post
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    When this outbreak started in Europe why wasn't this determined in the weeks leading up to the outbreak in NA? What were the infectious disease researchers in Europe looking in to during that time? That's my point. Why make a bunch of public health orders based on unproven research?

    A lot of people are now realizing this was no big deal unless you're 70+ or pre-existing health conditions. I just don't understand why knowledge learned in the early days from other parts of the world was not involved in the decision making process here. Parts of Europe had it over a month before we got anything here. I truly don't understand, even more now that the US has had 10+ days of rioting and protests. Should the not have a massive explosion of COVID cases? We are at the symptomatic threshold now.

    I believe people making bad decisions based on bad data is a failure. I'm not sure how that's a positive otherwise.
    You do realize how hard that would be to research without forcefully subjecting patients to covid exposure? Like when you don't know who is affected and/or symptoms you can't necessarily always track where infections came from.

    Take the cargill outbreak, how do you know which worker infected other workers? There's so many sick that you could've caught it from someone with symptoms, someone without symptoms, or even caught it elsewhere at the grocery store.

    Short of getting a asymptomatic person in a enclosure environment and exposing non-infected people ... it's really hard to track everything.
    Nolan

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ca_Silvia13 View Post
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    When this outbreak started in Europe why wasn't this determined in the weeks leading up to the outbreak in NA? What were the infectious disease researchers in Europe looking in to during that time? That's my point. Why make a bunch of public health orders based on unproven research?

    A lot of people are now realizing this was no big deal unless you're 70+ or pre-existing health conditions. I just don't understand why knowledge learned in the early days from other parts of the world was not taken in to account with the decision making process here. Parts of Europe had it over a month before we got anything here. I truly don't understand, even more now that the US has had 10+ days of rioting and protests. Should there not have a massive explosion of COVID cases? We are at the symptomatic threshold now.

    I believe people making bad decisions based on bad data is a failure. I'm not sure how that's a positive otherwise.
    You have to be careful judging people in hindsight. We didn't have good data then - we probably still dont have good data. I suspect we will be learning a lot about this disease in terms of long term morbidity and mortality for an equally long period of time in the future. There is a difference between making imprefect decisions based on imperfect data and making imperfect decisions based on bad data. We didn't have bad data. We just didn't really have data at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    You have to be careful judging people in hindsight. We didn't have good data then - we probably still dont have good data. I suspect we will be learning a lot about this disease in terms of long term morbidity and mortality for an equally long period of time in the future. There is a difference between making imprefect decisions based on imperfect data and making imperfect decisions based on bad data. We didn't have bad data. We just didn't really have data at all.
    I absolutely agree but I feel that NA should have had a jump start on "proper" measures based on the fact it was in Europe and Asia much sooner then here. Was it not apparent to the countries hit early that certain measures worked better then others?

    If we have measures in place now after what we know 3 months in to exposure in NA. Why are we no better off then other European countries who are 4+ months in to exposure? Maybe it's just me and perhaps i put way to much faith in the health system on this one.

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    Calgary under 200 active cases, happy to see things falling. Edmonton is starting to see a uptick though with 103 active cases now.
    Nolan

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    64 new ones in Alberta today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    64 new ones in Alberta today.
    In the last 48 hours tho since numbers weren't updated on Sunday
    Nolan

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ca_Silvia13 View Post
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    I absolutely agree but I feel that NA should have had a jump start on "proper" measures based on the fact it was in Europe and Asia much sooner then here. Was it not apparent to the countries hit early that certain measures worked better then others?

    If we have measures in place now after what we know 3 months in to exposure in NA. Why are we no better off then other European countries who are 4+ months in to exposure? Maybe it's just me and perhaps i put way to much faith in the health system on this one.
    We think the time difference was a lot, but it really wasn't. We are STILL trying to figure out many of the important aspects to this. I think a lot of the decisions were as good as they could have been given the information available. The biggest learning from this is that our overall modelling has to be taken a lot more seriosuly. Insofar as mistakes were made, we put too much faith in idiots like the IHME.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ca_Silvia13 View Post
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    When this outbreak started in Europe why wasn't this determined in the weeks leading up to the outbreak in NA? What were the infectious disease researchers in Europe looking in to during that time? That's my point. Why make a bunch of public health orders based on unproven research?

    A lot of people are now realizing this was no big deal unless you're 70+ or pre-existing health conditions. I just don't understand why knowledge learned in the early days from other parts of the world was not taken in to account with the decision making process here. Parts of Europe had it over a month before we got anything here. I truly don't understand, even more now that the US has had 10+ days of rioting and protests. Should there not have a massive explosion of COVID cases? We are at the symptomatic threshold now.

    I believe people making bad decisions based on bad data is a failure. I'm not sure how that's a positive otherwise.
    Here some real stats on mask use:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/world/unit...s-most-chinese

    Richmond BC is 54% Chinese where mask wearing rate is much higher. Community spread is only 1/3 of Canadian average.

    So while jury is still out asymptomatic spread happens or not, masks helps. So may be asymptomatic spread isn't fake news?

    Also, COVID may mutate enough that it could be moving target.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 06-08-2020 at 05:33 PM.

  12. #6572
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    There is a difference between making imprefect decisions based on imperfect data and making imperfect decisions based on bad data. We didn't have bad data. We just didn't really have data at all.
    Absolutely this. Doing the best with what you have isn't a failure.

    Interestingly some disease experts have suggested that asymptomatic transmission is looking to be very low, but patients who haven't yet fully developed typical symptoms, pre-symptomatic, are still likely to be transmitters.
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  13. #6573
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    Some stats:




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    It obviously spreads asymptomatically or 15% of NY couldn’t have got it without knowing...

    What we do know is that it does not spread to large groups of people as long as they are holding signs or are down on one knee.

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    I think people in this thread are talking about two different things.
    -catching it from someone who never feels any symptoms
    -catching it from someone who is not yet showing symptoms, but who will.

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    Presymptomatic vs asymptomatic vs analymptomatic. Not that difficult folks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kertejud2 View Post
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    Some stats:



    I wonder if this guy realizes all the context missing from these? Anyone without symptoms could have had the virus already, and no longer be testing positive. Without knowing who already had the virus(which we suspect is a lot of them), the positive rates being quoted don't really mean anything.

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    and now the WHO is walking back that claim of asymptomatic transmission being rare:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/w...#link-452d2061

  19. #6579
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    Who are morons

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    Who are morons
    They (W.H.O.) need to be gutted, top to bottom. Incompetence, faulty decisions and politically motivated decisions have cost lives.

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