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Thread: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

  1. #7101
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    We were in Invermere on the weekend. Kinsmen was pretty busy. My wife got the cough Friday night, headache and chills. Others in the family don't have ill effects at this point. She phoned this morning and said next available spot is Friday. Requested a call back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misterman View Post
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    Solid logic. It's from 8Chan, must be fake. Like I said, if you can't be bothered to read the drops, and don't even know where they came from, then your opinion is worthless on the matter. Yup, everything failed to materialize....................... except those NXIUM arrests, Obamagate trials, etc, etc, etc. But sure think whatever you want. The coincidences that would have to take place for Q to be a completely fake conspiracy theory would be almost mathematically impossible. But it would be hard to know without reading the drops and basing your info on random left wing news sources, since nothing they have written about Q is accurate at all.
    I guess you must be new to the internet. No helping some people...

    You know the difference between 4chan and 8chan, right?

    BTW, did you know Nostradamus predicted 9/11?!

  3. #7103
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    https://medcitynews.com/2020/07/span...t-be-possible/

    Spanish antibody study seems to confirm earlier Chinese findings. No herd immunity for COVID19.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 90_Shelby View Post
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    The Florida cases are high but the deaths per day don’t seem that bad, fairly constant since the end of March. No where near the proportions of Italy.

    With that being said, if the deaths aren’t rising despite the daily cases rising from 1000/day to 10,000/day, should we be concerned?

    From what I can find Florida ICU has been as high as 75-80% full but not over capacity. When coronavirus first started to spread, the biggest concern and reason for lockdown was to ensure we don’t overwhelm the health care system, from what I recall. There was a massive panic for ventilators and i’ve heard no concerns with this since.

    It seems like the amount of reopening should be based on health care capacity as opposed to number of new cases. Perhaps, this is a premature thought but until Florida’s healthcare system is overwhelmed, i don’t think the number of new cases is that relevant anymore.
    Following up on Florida and their healthcare situation despite the massive number of cases being reported:

    “I know we always have a concern about beds and what is available in the county for our residents,” said Dr. Raul Pino, health officer at the Florida Department of Health in Orange County, during a press briefing on Monday. “Although we have seen an increase in the number of hospitalizations, the systems are reporting that they are not concerned about the need for surge yet as a system. It could be that a hospital has more cases than another and things have to reshuffled on readjust[ed].”

    "Hospitals have attributed some of the reduced capacity to their return to normal operations, including restarting elective procedures that were put on hold for several weeks. Central Florida hospitals say they have enough capacity even though the COVID-19 hospitalization numbers have been steadily increasing."

    "“I think there’s a lot of misconception in the general public. When you hear that, let’s just say our Gainesville campus is 90% full, that’s a good thing, because we’re usually closer to 100% full because we need to run fully to serve our community,” said Dr. David Nelson, president of UF Health"

    "Meanwhile, DeSantis pointed out on Monday that the death rate from COVID-19 has been less than 2%, which is lower than other states. In Central Florida, Orange County’s death rate is much lower than the state average at 0.4%. The rate at Lake, Osceola and Seminole is 1%."

    Source:https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coro...4hy-story.html
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    Kinda related, saw this graphic from USA data on linkedin. I'd say when deaths and cases diverge, that's excellent news, and says either all the vulnerable people are dead (unlikely) or treatments are getting MUCH more effective.
    Covid Deaths.jpg

    More effective treatments was one of the primary goals of "flattening the curve". It wasn't intended to lower the total long-term number of infections, because at this point, it seems we will all get it. But it does reduce the total long-term number of deaths, which is a worthy goal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Kinda related, saw this graphic from USA data on linkedin. I'd say when deaths and cases diverge, that's excellent news, and says either all the vulnerable people are dead (unlikely) or treatments are getting MUCH more effective.
    Testing availability just got better, that's about it.

    https://public.tableau.com/shared/H7..._link&:embed=y

    Texas daily death rate stays in the 20-40 range throughout. Even when daily confirmation has increased 4 fold. So I think @Buster already said this early on, the virus is going thru the population very early but we just don't know the impact since there were lack of testing capacity.

    I like this chart as there is a slider over time and it's easy to see if a region getting hot again.
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/b...s?country=~USA
    Last edited by Xtrema; 07-07-2020 at 11:07 AM.

  7. #7107
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    Quote Originally Posted by 90_Shelby View Post
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    Following up on Florida and their healthcare situation despite the massive number of cases being reported:

    “I know we always have a concern about beds and what is available in the county for our residents,” said Dr. Raul Pino, health officer at the Florida Department of Health in Orange County, during a press briefing on Monday. “Although we have seen an increase in the number of hospitalizations, the systems are reporting that they are not concerned about the need for surge yet as a system. It could be that a hospital has more cases than another and things have to reshuffled on readjust[ed].”

    "Hospitals have attributed some of the reduced capacity to their return to normal operations, including restarting elective procedures that were put on hold for several weeks. Central Florida hospitals say they have enough capacity even though the COVID-19 hospitalization numbers have been steadily increasing."

    "“I think there’s a lot of misconception in the general public. When you hear that, let’s just say our Gainesville campus is 90% full, that’s a good thing, because we’re usually closer to 100% full because we need to run fully to serve our community,” said Dr. David Nelson, president of UF Health"

    "Meanwhile, DeSantis pointed out on Monday that the death rate from COVID-19 has been less than 2%, which is lower than other states. In Central Florida, Orange County’s death rate is much lower than the state average at 0.4%. The rate at Lake, Osceola and Seminole is 1%."

    Source:https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coro...4hy-story.html
    Tampa is out of ICU space:
    https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...t-of-icu-beds/

    Miami is in dire situation:
    Miami-Dade said it has more than 1,600 coronavirus patients now in the hospital, more than double from two weeks ago. Miami’s Baptist Hospital had only four of its 88 ICU beds available.

    “If we continue to increase at the pace we have been, we won’t have enough ventilators, enough rooms,” said Dr. David De La Zerda, a respiratory specialist at Miami’s Jackson Memorial Hospital.

    Miami-Dade, Florida’s largest county, is again closing its restaurants to sit-down dining, gyms and other indoor venues weeks after they reopened because the spike in coronavirus cases creating a shortage of ICU beds.

    But Orange County where Disney World is opening and is the host of the NBA bubble is doing good..... Sure.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 07-07-2020 at 10:29 AM.

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    Measuring hosptial or ICU occupancy rates is kind of difficult because because we have never looked at this before to know what is "normal" and what is "efficient". I'd argue, you want most beds being used or you built too many hospitals.

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    So who gets the beds down there? Fcfs? Cash upfront? Best insurance?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    So who gets the beds down there? Fcfs? Cash upfront? Best insurance?
    If you gagged or not on the test phase. So your wife is in.


    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    The benefit of masks is not known at this time. But we do know it is some non-trivial amount more than zero.

    We also know that the cost of mask use is, essentially, zero.

    So the cost:benefit of mask use is approaching infinity. I'll take that every time. And every time I see someone without a mask, I think they are stupid.

  11. #7111
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    We need a lot more data.

    - Mortality of patients that have been hospitalized and/or admitted to ICU
    - Average length of hospital/ICU stay

    We're much, much better at treating this thing than we were even a month ago.

  12. #7112
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    Probably no way to get this type of data reliably, but I wanted what the "all-cause mortality" is this year vs previous. It's an abnormal year for so many reasons. Maybe an insurance company would find this somehow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Probably no way to get this type of data reliably, but I wanted what the "all-cause mortality" is this year vs previous. It's an abnormal year for so many reasons. Maybe an insurance company would find this somehow.
    They are tracking this. It's up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Probably no way to get this type of data reliably, but I wanted what the "all-cause mortality" is this year vs previous. It's an abnormal year for so many reasons. Maybe an insurance company would find this somehow.
    When I looked it up a month or so ago, BC was reporting significantly less deaths between March and May. About the same amount of elderly dying, but far fewer other deaths.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    It's up.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    It's down
    Well, Yeah, so that's what I'm talking about.

  16. #7116
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Well, Yeah, so that's what I'm talking about.
    I re-read the articles. I mixed them up. Jan-Mar saw less excess deaths, March to May saw more, but almost entirely in the 85+ age group.

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    Seasonal Allergies not just seasonal allergies, anymore.
    If you thought the name said it all; think again! It's a new question females are being asked when trying to book mammograms. Answer wrong, and you're put in the same category as someone who said "I'm short of breath with a fever and exhaustion, recently".

    Fucking insanity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xtrema View Post
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    Tampa is out of ICU space:
    https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...t-of-icu-beds/

    Miami is in dire situation:



    But Orange County where Disney World is opening and is the host of the NBA bubble is doing good..... Sure.
    The article I quoted addressed that some hospitals are busier then others, but overall they can simply move patients around as needed and send patients to hospitals that have room. Overall, they're not out of ICU space and they're not turning away patients or stacking them in hallways. Until that happens, it's not an issue.

    From the article you quoted:
    "Local hospitals have said they have multi-pronged plans to expand capacity quickly if needed. Some have announced a hold on some elective surgeries, and others say they can reconfigure their facilities to accommodate more patients."

    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Measuring hosptial or ICU occupancy rates is kind of difficult because because we have never looked at this before to know what is "normal" and what is "efficient". I'd argue, you want most beds being used or you built too many hospitals.
    This makes sense to me and the article I quoted discusses this point as well. They should be close to 100% as that's typically how they would operate, pre-Covid times.
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    The great fear amongst the gov't officials, healthcare workers, and policymakers is encountering a situation where you get deaths due to triage.

    They don't mind people dying, they REALLY dont want people dying because a doctor had to choose one person over another, like in Italy.

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    Trump officially withdraws from World Health Organization.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

    $200 million owed to WHO will not be paid. Dine and dash! Last man in has to pay the bill. Liked most of Trumps moves right up until this one. Dickwad move.

    Does beg the question: If the USA develops a vaccine before Europe, will they distribute it to the rest of the world? I have my doubts.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 07-07-2020 at 02:42 PM.
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