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Thread: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

  1. #7201
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    In other fun news, Vox is running a story saying a doctor is reporting that his patients have been reinfected after 3 months. Vox is trash, so I’m waiting to see who else reports this, but that will be very disappointing if true.

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    Florida!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yeah but.. You can get infected twice with the flu in one year. Different strains.
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    Quote Originally Posted by googe View Post
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    In other fun news, Vox is running a story saying a doctor is reporting that his patients have been reinfected after 3 months. Vox is trash, so I’m waiting to see who else reports this, but that will be very disappointing if true.
    There were many reports from China of people getting reinfected since the assumption is once you recover you’re good to go, which they have now confirmed isn’t the case
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    Florida with 15k cases today... Just keeps climbing. I wonder if the US will hit 100k in a day by the end of the month. It's pretty crazy to think the US could confirm more cases in one day than Canada has in total. We're not far off (their peak of 71k vs our ~100k)
    Nolan

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    USA are adventurers. They have the pschye to handle the unknown. I say let them go ahead and see how bad it can get first.
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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    Florida with 15k cases today... Just keeps climbing. I wonder if the US will hit 100k in a day by the end of the month. It's pretty crazy to think the US could confirm more cases in one day than Canada has in total. We're not far off (their peak of 71k vs our ~100k)
    Florida compared to Alberta ~today:
    (15,000/21,480,000)/(77/4,371,000) = 40x more cases per capita in one single day.
    If I recall from my previous maths, I think that's about 11x more daily cases than the very worst day Alberta has had.
    Florida's response is to open Disney World....

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    I mean. Keeping total cases low isn't thier primary goal. How's thier deaths/day/capita doing?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    I mean. Keeping total cases low isn't thier primary goal. How's thier deaths/day/capita doing?
    That’s what people aren’t using as a metric because it’s not nearly as bad.

    In a week we have to see. But that’s also what we said last week and deaths have been fairly flat.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    At least we know now that heat is not a factor. Influenza would absolutely have slowed at these temperatures.
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    I’m sure if you put Alberta where Florida is geographical with beaches and their amenities, our cases would be a lot higher
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    Florida daily deaths. You can fit this data to nearly any narrative. But I think data matters.
    Screenshot_20200712-132643.jpg

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    USA daily deaths and Canada daily deaths. Not so different on a per capita basis.
    Screenshot_20200712-133039.jpg
    Screenshot_20200712-133153.jpg

    Of course, the trends may be diverging now the same way the daily cases are. We shall see.

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    Oh man with Florida being the hot spot I hope the NBA pulls off their playoffs. I have a feeling some bro is gonna sneak some hoe into the quarantine quarters and infect a bunch lol
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    Or the max boost portfolio lol xqq/hmmj/arkk/xgro/strathmore/Chinese food lol
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    This is diversification in a nut shell. Equity, Fixed Income, Tech, Stoner, Real Estate, and Steady Income.

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    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...S-recover.html

    Long term symptoms. A scant tenth seem to be "normal" after two months.
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    Quote Originally Posted by googe View Post
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    In other fun news, Vox is running a story saying a doctor is reporting that his patients have been reinfected after 3 months. Vox is trash, so I’m waiting to see who else reports this, but that will be very disappointing if true.
    A few pages back, for the Spanish study that Buster and I posted. Antibody wears off after 12 weeks for 95%. Confirmed Chinese finding but the Chinese is sample size of 37 while Spanish study is around ~70k.

    So if we let it spread like US, it will never ends and may mutate to something else quicker.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    USA daily deaths and Canada daily deaths. Not so different on a per capita basis.
    Screenshot_20200712-133039.jpg
    Screenshot_20200712-133153.jpg

    Of course, the trends may be diverging now the same way the daily cases are. We shall see.
    Isn't Canada around 25/day and trending down and US is 750/day and trending up?

    So isn't that 3x more deaths as US should hover around 250/day?

    Death vs infection rate, if its lags, is around 1.5% which is better than the 4% total so far.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 07-12-2020 at 09:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xtrema View Post
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    A few pages back, for the Spanish study that Buster and I posted. Antibody wears off after 12 weeks for 95%. Confirmed Chinese finding but the Chinese is sample size of 37 while Spanish study is around ~70k.

    So if we let it spread like US, it will never ends and may mutate to something else quicker.
    So basically we should be trying to spread this as quick as possible to have it pass through before there is a chance for mutation. With all the controls in place we are likely to be looking at another year or 2 for this to make its rounds. That's a tad bit outside the 12 week window.

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    What I think they are hoping for is a less deadly mutation. Given odds, a viral outbreak should be much closer to 0.5% mortality instead of 5%. Along with no lingering long term or permanent damage side effects. Noone wants to even mention permanent long term damage (lungs, brain, heart) yet but it will be a thing.

    The flu existed before the 1918 flu, its just that year was a particularily bad, lethal strain that killed young people.

    If the USA actually had a functioning health system, we might have been able to stave off and maybe get a much milder mutation as most peoples first encounter. That being said, there is always a small chance with a new virus that a mutation will be worse. Much like anything else, time gives you options - and sometimes luck as well.

    Best to think of virus mutations as growing mushrooms. If you can slow the spread of the poisonous one, eventually a Shitake will takeover the spot where the poisonous one would have taken over first. If you can't stop the growth of the mushrooms (which you can't) at least you can re-roll for a chance at a benevolent strain.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 07-13-2020 at 04:23 AM.
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    Except spreading it is when the mutation happens. A mutation is an imperfect copy. More copies mean more mutations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misterman View Post
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    So basically we should be trying to spread this as quick as possible to have it pass through before there is a chance for mutation. With all the controls in place we are likely to be looking at another year or 2 for this to make its rounds. That's a tad bit outside the 12 week window.
    Getting every single person on earth infected in 12 weeks or less is ambitious. Time to test that out in Plauge Inc.

    And remember that it already mutated once out of Wuhan. We are just waiting on what the US may give us next at their rate of infection.

    The viruses without this mutation—the D lineage—include the one that first emerged in Wuhan, China. The viruses with the mutation—the G lineage—appeared sometime in February. Worldwide, the G’s were relatively uncommon in early March, but by April, they had become dominant in much of Europe, North America, and Australia.

    But this pattern is hard to interpret. The D614G mutation might make the coronavirus more transmissible, and G-viruses might have become more common because they outcompeted the D-viruses. But it’s also possible that the mutation might do nothing, and G-viruses have become more common because of dumb luck.



    Meanwhile in Sweden.
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/swedish-...erns-1.1461700

    Sounds like that's the only way to keep this at bay until vaccine is out.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 07-13-2020 at 08:16 AM.

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