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Thread: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

  1. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by themack89 View Post
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    Wasn't meant to be interesting. You can use the number of confirmed cases to see roughly where it might be on the curve. Right now if we were still on the initial trajectory assuming some type of exponential growth, we would be at 10k+ as of this morning (it is tomorrow for China now).

    This isn't 2003. Global response is better, quarantine is faster, detection is better, spread of information is better. I will bet money this does not explode.
    It is difficult to predict what the final logistic function will look like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    It is difficult to predict what the final logistic function will look like.
    Right, but the nature of exponential growth means that "massive overnight jump" we saw several days ago would have looked like small potatoes by now.

    You need to integrate the quant with the qual right. We can observe if number of confirmed cases is accelerating or decelerating, and then think about the narrative of detection and quarantine measures.
    Last edited by themack89; 01-29-2020 at 09:13 PM.
    On Sabbatical

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    China’s known for being very accurate with their reporting too, so we know that number is solid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by adam c View Post
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    170 deaths
    124 cures

    I don’t see how WHO says it’s 2% mortality, with these numbers it’s almost 60% mortality
    Don't forget the cures we're seeing now is from the early January patients... Over 1/4 are needing ICU care - so likely ventilator. Pretty sure if you're on life support in that manner you're not getting out quick.

    WHO I think is putting it in that 3% range still
    Last edited by AndyL; 01-29-2020 at 09:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by themack89 View Post
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    Right, but the nature of exponential growth means that "massive overnight jump" we saw several days ago would have looked like small potatoes by now.

    You need to integrate the quant with the qual right.
    I think there is enough complexity within the system to not assume that any outbreak will follow a smooth logistic curve. It may. It may not

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    Honestly I don't care if it turns into a global apocalypse provided it waits till after my trip to St. Kitts in March.
    Originally posted by SJW
    Once again another useless post by JRSCOOLDUDE.
    Originally posted by snowcat
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    Originally posted by JRSC00LUDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    I think there is enough complexity within the system to not assume that any outbreak will follow a smooth logistic curve. It may. It may not
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    Stats are stats, I still take into account that the people who are confirmed could either be cured or die, however the hard true numbers we have to go with are those who have beaten it and those who haven’t
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    All this smart people talk did was remind me to switch on the Flames-Euler's game.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    I think there is enough complexity within the system to not assume that any outbreak will follow a smooth logistic curve. It may. It may not
    Like, yeah we can debate complexity, and how to parameterize the exact function, but that's not what modelling is for. It is a representation of what we would expect to see in the world, with some level of error. So, with new information we update our priors and re-evaluate our guesses. Every moment that ticks by without another explosion in the number of cases is evidence against accelerating growth. If growth is not accelerating, then what is it doing? Does it still fit with being on the accelerating part of the curve? Etc.
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    What is the buckethead actually accomplishing? I'm so confused. Moreso than usual even.
    Originally posted by SJW
    Once again another useless post by JRSCOOLDUDE.
    Originally posted by snowcat
    Don't let the e-thugs and faggots get to you when they quote your posts and write stupid shit.
    Originally posted by JRSC00LUDE
    I say stupid shit all the time.
    ^^ Fact Checked

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    Also how do they build a 1000 bed hospital in like 10 days. How long did the south hospital take ? 5+ years?
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    Quote Originally Posted by themack89 View Post
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    Wasn't meant to be interesting. You can use the number of confirmed cases to see roughly where it might be on the curve. Right now if we were still on the initial trajectory assuming some type of exponential growth, we would be at 10k+ as of this morning (it is tomorrow for China now).
    Confirmation will only follow a log curve if China keep ramping up testing capacity. Probably not a good indication of true infection.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by g-m View Post
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    Also how do they build a 1000 bed hospital in like 10 days. How long did the south hospital take ? 5+ years?
    Atco trailers or similar prefab building.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by JRSC00LUDE View Post
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    What is the buckethead actually accomplishing? I'm so confused. Moreso than usual even.
    Sneeze/spit shield if you get sneezed on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by g-m View Post
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    Also how do they build a 1000 bed hospital in like 10 days. How long did the south hospital take ? 5+ years?
    Pre-fabs and lots of workers/machines. North America seems to handle construction much more slowly than a lot of other countries. Go on YouTube and watch some timelapse constructions in other countries, it's amazing. Last one I remember was this one - look what can be done in a weekend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btOE0rcKDC0

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    Not to mention, China probably doesn't have to deal with unions....

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    The GF was briefed on all this at the hospital today. From what they were told:

    - Overwhelming majority of deaths have been the elderly, very young children, and the immuno-compromised. For people with a normal immune system, the risk of anything more than a bad flu is quite low.
    - It's not airborne, you need to breathe it in, so stay away from people sneezing, keep your hands away from your face, and wash your hands lots
    - Masks are effective until they get wet/moist, do not reuse them
    - Get your flu shots, because the normal flu is still a much greater health risk to people in Canada than Coronavirus

    Basically they aren't too concerned about it, at least right now. People who might have it were tested and then sent home to "self quarantine" while they wait for results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by D'z Nutz View Post
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    Not to mention, China probably doesn't have to deal with unions....
    What’s the difference between communists and union?

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    Quote Originally Posted by D'z Nutz View Post
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    Not to mention, China probably doesn't have to deal with unions....
    Or safety.
    Originally posted by SJW
    Once again another useless post by JRSCOOLDUDE.
    Originally posted by snowcat
    Don't let the e-thugs and faggots get to you when they quote your posts and write stupid shit.
    Originally posted by JRSC00LUDE
    I say stupid shit all the time.
    ^^ Fact Checked

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    Quote Originally Posted by themack89 View Post
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    ... Quant...
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JRSC00LUDE View Post
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    Or safety.
    Or building codes

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