It is difficult to predict what the final logistic function will look like.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
It is difficult to predict what the final logistic function will look like.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Right, but the nature of exponential growth means that "massive overnight jump" we saw several days ago would have looked like small potatoes by now.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
You need to integrate the quant with the qual right. We can observe if number of confirmed cases is accelerating or decelerating, and then think about the narrative of detection and quarantine measures.
Last edited by themack89; 01-29-2020 at 09:13 PM.
On Sabbatical
China’s known for being very accurate with their reporting too, so we know that number is solid.
Don't forget the cures we're seeing now is from the early January patients... Over 1/4 are needing ICU care - so likely ventilator. Pretty sure if you're on life support in that manner you're not getting out quick.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
WHO I think is putting it in that 3% range still
Last edited by AndyL; 01-29-2020 at 09:19 PM.
I think there is enough complexity within the system to not assume that any outbreak will follow a smooth logistic curve. It may. It may notThis quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Honestly I don't care if it turns into a global apocalypse provided it waits till after my trip to St. Kitts in March.
Originally posted by SJW
Once again another useless post by JRSCOOLDUDE.
Originally posted by snowcat
Don't let the e-thugs and faggots get to you when they quote your posts and write stupid shit.^^ Fact CheckedOriginally posted by JRSC00LUDE
I say stupid shit all the time.
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Stats are stats, I still take into account that the people who are confirmed could either be cured or die, however the hard true numbers we have to go with are those who have beaten it and those who haven’t
Sig nuked by mod.
All this smart people talk did was remind me to switch on the Flames-Euler's game.
Everything I say is satire.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Like, yeah we can debate complexity, and how to parameterize the exact function, but that's not what modelling is for. It is a representation of what we would expect to see in the world, with some level of error. So, with new information we update our priors and re-evaluate our guesses. Every moment that ticks by without another explosion in the number of cases is evidence against accelerating growth. If growth is not accelerating, then what is it doing? Does it still fit with being on the accelerating part of the curve? Etc.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
On Sabbatical
What is the buckethead actually accomplishing? I'm so confused. Moreso than usual even.
Originally posted by SJW
Once again another useless post by JRSCOOLDUDE.
Originally posted by snowcat
Don't let the e-thugs and faggots get to you when they quote your posts and write stupid shit.^^ Fact CheckedOriginally posted by JRSC00LUDE
I say stupid shit all the time.
Also how do they build a 1000 bed hospital in like 10 days. How long did the south hospital take ? 5+ years?
Z32 TT
1996 Integra - winter beater with studs - RIP (deer)
2002 WRX - to be sold
2010 sti - winter
Confirmation will only follow a log curve if China keep ramping up testing capacity. Probably not a good indication of true infection.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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Atco trailers or similar prefab building.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
- - - Updated - - -
Sneeze/spit shield if you get sneezed on.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Pre-fabs and lots of workers/machines. North America seems to handle construction much more slowly than a lot of other countries. Go on YouTube and watch some timelapse constructions in other countries, it's amazing. Last one I remember was this one - look what can be done in a weekend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btOE0rcKDC0This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Not to mention, China probably doesn't have to deal with unions....
The GF was briefed on all this at the hospital today. From what they were told:
- Overwhelming majority of deaths have been the elderly, very young children, and the immuno-compromised. For people with a normal immune system, the risk of anything more than a bad flu is quite low.
- It's not airborne, you need to breathe it in, so stay away from people sneezing, keep your hands away from your face, and wash your hands lots
- Masks are effective until they get wet/moist, do not reuse them
- Get your flu shots, because the normal flu is still a much greater health risk to people in Canada than Coronavirus
Basically they aren't too concerned about it, at least right now. People who might have it were tested and then sent home to "self quarantine" while they wait for results.
What’s the difference between communists and union?This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Or safety.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Originally posted by SJW
Once again another useless post by JRSCOOLDUDE.
Originally posted by snowcat
Don't let the e-thugs and faggots get to you when they quote your posts and write stupid shit.^^ Fact CheckedOriginally posted by JRSC00LUDE
I say stupid shit all the time.
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.
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Or building codesThis quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote