2020 US Election mega thread

[ExtraSlow]

I didn't screenshot it, but this is fropm October 3, 2016:

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So, yep, the polls have clearly moved since that debate, and as the public called it, yes, Hillary is doing significantly better.
538.com calls it 71/29 for Clinton in the polls-only forecast and 68/32 in the polls-plus forecast as of this afternoon. They do modify these numbers several times per day.

https://forums.beyond.ca/threads/399...om#post4603940

Also, 538 DOES show how thier forecast changed over time for the 2016 election here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

[ExtraSlow]

Here's that same graph for this 2020 election.

From here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

[StupidWade]

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I wish 538 would show a comparison with what their forecast showed in 2016 with the same # of days out.

You can check this link which has stats from election day 2016. There's a section heading "How the forecast has changed" that allows you to scroll a bar across and see what the 538.com prediction was on every day leading up to the 2016 election.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

[dirtsniffer]

October 9th, 2016. 18% chance of trump winning

[pheoxs]

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I didn't screenshot it, but this is fropm October 3, 2016:

https://forums.beyond.ca/threads/399...om#post4603940

Also, 538 DOES show how thier forecast changed over time for the 2016 election here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

One thing to keep in mind is for the popular vote they were fairly close, predicting 48.5-44.9% in favor of Hiillary. In reality the popular vote was 48.2% Hillary - 46.1% Trump. So the polls were right (within their reasonable error) but the Electoral College helped sway the number of seats just enough.

In the end 60k votes in specific battleground states was the deciding victory. I do believe 538 along with many of the pollsters updated their predictions though to better estimate the battlegorund states this time around.

[sabad66]

thanks guys, clearly I didn't dig into the website enough.

If you assume pollsters learned from their mistakes in 2016 and see the odds even wider than they were in 2016, this doesn't look good for Trump. I still think there's a decent chance he could sneak out an Electoral College win but this is about the best Biden campaign could reasonably ask for.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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October 9th, 2016. 18% chance of trump winning

A huge factor in the 2016 election was people saw the odds/polling and few people went out to vote because so many assumed Hillary had a guaranteed victory (and she almost did despite that). So this year with record voters coming out I think it will be more interesting at the very least.

[killramos]

Record voters coming out? I thought they were all staying home and mailing it in because the covid

People are way more scared of the covid than the donald

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Record voters coming out? I thought they were all staying home and mailing it in because the covid

People are way more scared of the covid than the donald

Predictions are for the highest voter participation in the last ~100 years. Prior elections typically had 40-50% of people saying they cared who won, this election has 80-90%. We got a preview in 2018 when the midterm elections had the highest voter turnout since 1914. The 2016 election had a 20-year low turnout.

If people are afraid of COVID they should stop attending rallies where Trump (and probably every other politician) personally throws out hats to everyone the day before he is hospitalized haha. Amazing they don't get tested before large public events.

[ExtraSlow]

I am in favor of high voter engagement and turnout.

[pheoxs]

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Predictions are for the highest voter participation in the last ~100 years. Prior elections typically had 40-50% of people saying they cared who won, this election has 80-90%. We got a preview in 2018 when the midterm elections had the highest voter turnout since 1914. The 2016 election had a 20-year low turnout.

If people are afraid of COVID they should stop attending rallies where Trump (and probably every other politician) personally throws out hats to everyone the day before he is hospitalized haha. Amazing they don't get tested before large public events.

Even worse than that, he tested positive on thursday with a rapid test and then still went to a fundraiser after. Then got a second covid test friday and then told people about it.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Even worse than that, he tested positive on thursday with a rapid test and then still went to a fundraiser after. Then got a second covid test friday and then told people about it.

Wow, I didn't know that. Can't say I'm surprised though as he has always treated COVID like it was a joke.

[pheoxs]

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Wow, I didn't know that. Can't say I'm surprised though as he has always treated COVID like it was a joke.

Edit: err, I guess I mixed it up a bit by a few hours. He was known to be exposed by Hicks after Hicks tested positive but Trump still went to the fundraiser. Then tested positive after hours the fundraiser but didn't notify people immediately and instead went on Fox and Friends and didn't mention the positive first test.

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/02/tru...d-to-covid-19/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-d..._copyURL_share

[The_Rural_Juror]

Attempted to shake Wallace's hand at the debate as well.

[killramos]

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I am in favor of high voter engagement and turnout.

Based on the competence (tried to choose a kind word) of the average voter, I thoroughly disagree.

[The_Rural_Juror]

I identify as a below average voter. I think I should become a politician instead.

[killramos]

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I identify as a below average voter. I think I should become a politician instead.

You seem to meet the qualification list

[Mitsu3000gt]

Interestingly, there aren't even background checks on presidents. And the only age restriction is a minimum (35).

[ThePenIsMightier]

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How is 74/77 not considered old? Average life expectancy of an American is 78.54. Agreed that these 2 individuals will probably live longer than the average given backgrounds but I am comfortable in saying these 2 are fucking old.

If you're already in your 70's you didn't die of: car accident, cancer, shooting, suicide, opioids, SIDS, AIDS, Boko Haram, hippo attack, war, parachute not opening, Swine Flu, dysentery, drowning, gangrene on your toe, choking on your own vomit or drowning in pussy.
These are the things that drag the average down to 78.
Once you live to 70+, the odds are you will exceed the average.

[pheoxs]

My guess for the next debate, originally scheduled for Oct 7th. Trump claims he's all cured even though he just tested positive. Biden refuses to debate for safety and since Trump should be in isolation. All the trump sheep claim victory that Biden is scared to debate again.