2020 US Election mega thread

[Buster]

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What a dick. Although Im unsure how quickly a court would actually act on this. Michigan I think said they should be done counting by the end of the day (major cities)

I can see him wanting to ensure casting ballots is done within the window...but counting votes?

[revelations]

Im certainly no expert on the election system down there - but in WI, biden won by about 21,000 votes and with 5% to be reported still, which is roughly 100,000 votes remaining. Someone please correct me if I got this wrong.


edit - just changed to 1% reported. Thats still some 20,000 votes here or there

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Im certainly no expert on the election system down there - but in WI, biden won by less than 30,000 votes and with 5% to be reported still, which is roughly 100,000 votes remaining. Someone please correct me if I got this wrong.

AP is reporting 99% counted and ~20,000 vote margin in Biden's favor.

Both Pennsylvania and Georgia have a ton of democrat mail in ballots incoming. In Pennsylvania there is about 1.3M uncounted votes, ~70% of which were sent out to registered dems and the current spread is about 400K in Trump's favor before those votes.

[tirebob]

AP is shows 100% reporting in NC with Trump winning and GA with 99.51% but it is not being added yet for some reason...

[Mitsu3000gt]

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AP is shows 100% reporting in NC with Trump winning and GA with 99.51% but it is not being added yet for some reason...

Trump should win both of those. He has to also win Pennsylvania, Alaska plus either Nevada or Michigan to win.

His biggest problem will be Pennsylvania where there is about ~900K democrat votes expected to come in and he's only ahead by ~400K.

[Buster]

I would be surprised if he took either of Nevada or Michigan.

[HuMz]

Trump will win PA, but he needs Arizona (or Nevada), which he just might get.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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I would be surprised if he took either of Nevada or Michigan.

Both are leaning blue at the moment but Nevada still has 25% of the votes to count and has said they won't release an update until Thursday. Mail in ballots tend to be predominantly democrat votes. Michigan looks to be a slam dunk with 99% counted and ~60K in Biden's favor.

[revelations]

Since 1964, with one exception, the eventual winner has always gotten Florida.

PA is another that, for decades has also gone with the winner.

Some unlikely stats are going to be made here.

Quick math with the pending counts and likely end result - 270 biden and 268 trump ..... daaaaamn thats a close shave

From a quick glance at the map, trump basically won something like 90% of the non-urban (ie. cities with >250,000 people) votes. Rural areas are almost all trump.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Trump will win PA, but he needs Arizona, which he just might get.

PA should be quite close. Trump is ahead by ~400K and he is going to get about ~400K more, but about 900K dem votes are going to come in based on how many of the outstanding votes are registered to dem housholds.

EDIT: Apparently Arizona was mathematically a Biden victory after 80% of the votes. The last time they voted blue was Clinton in 1996

It's probably going to come down to Pennsylvania and either a 270-268 Biden victory or a 290 - 248 Biden victory of my marth is correct AND if everything else settles the direction it's leaning.

[OTown]

Nevada is going to be crazy close. Less than 8000 vote difference with 86% in.

Likewise a few data companies are reporting that Arizona will be close if not a late Trump win.

Those 2 states will be game changers if they go red

[HuMz]

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PA should be quite close. Trump is ahead by ~400K and he is going to get about ~400K more, but about 900K dem votes are going to come in based on how many of the outstanding votes are registered to dem housholds.

AP has already called Arizona a Biden victory but has it at 85% count so something may not be accurate there.

EDIT: Apparently Arizona was mathematically a Biden victory after 80% of the votes.

No, it's not a mathematical victory, a few outlets have retracted that call. There is close to 500k votes left, Trump needs 57% of those to win. Some are saying the remaining counties typically vote red. For what it's worth, one of the only pollsters who accurately predicted such a close election (data orbital), is based in AZ and is predicting a Trump win once the remaining votes come in at 7. I wouldn't be ruling it out yet. They're far more credible then the mainstream press.

Also, I don't know where you're getting 900k more Dem votes for PA and 400k for Trump. They have 86% reported, that isn't 1.3 million votes left to count.

[sabad66]

Michigan called. AZ is the one to watch now. Lots of votes left to count out of Phoenix area which so far is 52/46 Biden. Going to be tough to recover but mail in ballots in az aren’t tending as democratic as the rust belt was.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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No, it's not a mathematical victory, a few outlets have retracted that call. There is close to 500k votes left, Trump needs 57% of those to win. Some are saying the remaining counties typically vote red. For what it's worth, one of the only pollsters who accurately predicted such a close election (data orbital), is based in AZ and is predicting a Trump win once the remaining votes come in at 7. I wouldn't be ruling it out yet. They're far more credible then the mainstream press.

Also, I don't know where you're getting 900k more Dem votes for PA and 400k for Trump. They have 86% reported, that isn't 1.3 million votes left to count.

Tell that to the AP then haha, I didn't declare them victorious. They said that the remaining votes were mostly from blue areas of the state.

Everywhere I look says PA has about 1.3M votes uncounted with ~70% of those coming from registered dems.

This was updated an hour ago and says 1.25M votes outstanding: https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news...inues/2584607/

[Disoblige]

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No, it's not a mathematical victory, a few outlets have retracted that call. There is close to 500k votes left, Trump needs 57% of those to win. Some are saying the remaining counties typically vote red. For what it's worth, one of the only pollsters who accurately predicted such a close election (data orbital), is based in AZ and is predicting a Trump win once the remaining votes come in at 7. I wouldn't be ruling it out yet. They're far more credible then the mainstream press.

Also, I don't know where you're getting 900k more Dem votes for PA and 400k for Trump. They have 86% reported, that isn't 1.3 million votes left to count.

What do you expect from someone who just googles news to get surface level info without further research? Might as well just ask Alexa .. Difference is Alexa won't blame the news source due to poor comprehension of data.

"Mitsu3000, what is the capital of Arizona?"

[processing...]

Mitsu3000gt: Phoenix. In May 1864 the territory was moved to Prescott. In 1867 the territorial capital was moved to Tucson. In 1877, the capital moved back to Prescott. Finally, Phoenix was declared the permanent capital starting February 4, 1889. My grandfather lived around Phoenix shortly after it became a capital.

[pheoxs]

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Michigan called. AZ is the one to watch now. Lots of votes left to count out of Phoenix area which so far is 52/46 Biden. Going to be tough to recover but mail in ballots in az aren’t tending as democratic as the rust belt was.

No chance for AZ. 400k votes left and Trump needs 100k gain. So that'd have to 64% trump votes. The remaining votes are predominately mail in which so far have been 54% biden after 2.4 mill mail in counted... doubt it flips so hard down the stretch.

Nevada is still interesting, I think it'll shift blue with the mail in votes but we'll see.

[sabad66]

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No chance for AZ. 400k votes left and Trump needs 100k gain. So that'd have to 64% trump votes. The remaining votes are predominately mail in which so far have been 54% biden after 2.4 mill mail in counted... doubt it flips so hard down the stretch.

Nevada is still interesting, I think it'll shift blue with the mail in votes but we'll see.

I hope you’re right but there is a lot of conflicting info out of AZ. Yesterday they said it was 95% counted and this morning it went back to 80. We will see, should be done by 5 our time.

[SJW]

How's Kanye doing? Too close to call?

[killramos]

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How's Kanye doing? Too close to call?

He officially conceded lol

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/america...-run-1.5174298

Gonna regroup for 2024 tho!

[ercchry]

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He officially conceded lol

Too bad, should have at least demanded a recount or two first