2020 US Election mega thread

[01RedDX]

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[ExtraSlow]

Finally seeing more useful national polling. Biden ahead, but not by much.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ts-nationally/

Also, useful for everyone to remember:

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Polling averages are a snapshot, not a forecast.

538.com has not yet released a forecast.

[sabad66]

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Finally seeing more useful national polling. Biden ahead, but not by much.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ts-nationally/

Also, useful for everyone to remember:


538.com has not yet released a forecast.

I've been reading that 6 points nationally is the magic number to overcome the electoral college advantage of republicans (for comparison sake, Hilary was ahead by 5 points on election day 2016). If Biden can hold the 9-10 point national lead it should be in the bag.

But i still maintain Biden is risky and can bury himself unexpectedly and quickly. His team really needs to babysit him and prep him for the debates well. Oh and keep him away from COVID since he's 77

[ExtraSlow]

It's something like 6%, yes. But it's far from certain Biden can hold. I am still predicting a trump victory, as of June 19, 2020. (feel free to quote this if you want to hold me to it).

[ExtraSlow]

Biden's running-mate will be interesting. When does that get announced?

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quirks of the electoral college mean that the 6% isn't a garantee either. Those "battle" or "swing" states matter a lot. It's a quirky system that most news articles don't deal with at all. 538.com projections attempt to take that into account.

[killramos]

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It's something like 6%, yes. But it's far from certain Biden can hold. I am still predicting a trump victory, as of June 19, 2020. (feel free to quote this if you want to hold me to it).

Biden is just such a week candidate I agree. There is no way anyone truly undecided chooses to vote for Biden, and those are important votes.

Trump will get his base out to vote for sure. And while democrats really hate trump, I don’t see much in the way of enthusiasm in a get out and vote for Biden movement.

Debates won’t even be close with sleepy Joe at the wheel. I actually kindof agree it’s a long shot Biden shows up to them.

[pheoxs]

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Biden is just such a week candidate I agree. There is no way anyone truly undecided chooses to vote for Biden, and those are important votes.

Trump will get his base out to vote for sure. And while democrats really hate trump, I don’t see much in the way of enthusiasm in a get out and vote for Biden movement.

Debates won’t even be close with sleepy Joe at the wheel. I actually kindof agree it’s a long shot Biden shows up to them.

I think you are vastly under estimated how much people hate trump. 2020 will (my guess) be a record turnout for voters

[sabad66]

Former Bush and Trump administration Republicans forming a pro-Biden Super-PAC:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/for...iden-super-pac

This makes it the second group along with the Lincoln Project which are groups of conservatives who support Republicans for Congress but not Trump for the executive. Pretty unprecedented i think but totally makes sense for a disrupter like Trump. Lincoln Project is pretty interesting... they have been running really nasty ads lately and is actually run by Kellyanne Conway's husband of all people.

[killramos]

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I think you are vastly under estimated how much people hate trump. 2020 will (my guess) be a record turnout for voters

I think you are vastly overestimating the number of people who hate trump, just because the anti trumpers are loud and obnoxious and the amount of coverage the MSM provides them.

It’s super easy to live in an echo chamber where you think the vast majority of people hate Donald Trump. But it isn’t true.

Presidential elections have never been about the entrenched ends of the spectrum who will get out and vote and vote the way they decided to before ever hearing a candidates name no matter what. It’s about motivating the middle and getting demographics who usually don’t vote out to vote.

Biden is not a great candidate for that, even the die hard democrats have a hard time keeping him on a leash long enough not to alienate people.

[RawB8figure]

Best video troll of the year..

https://twitter.com/i/status/1273770669214490626

[dirtsniffer]

Hilarious twitter had to tag the post with a disclaimer that it had been modified.

[01RedDX]

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[pheoxs]

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I think you are vastly overestimating the number of people who hate trump, just because the anti trumpers are loud and obnoxious and the amount of coverage the MSM provides them.

It’s super easy to live in an echo chamber where you think the vast majority of people hate Donald Trump. But it isn’t true.

Presidential elections have never been about the entrenched ends of the spectrum who will get out and vote and vote the way they decided to before ever hearing a candidates name no matter what. It’s about motivating the middle and getting demographics who usually don’t vote out to vote.

Biden is not a great candidate for that, even the die hard democrats have a hard time keeping him on a leash long enough not to alienate people.

We shall see but I think if you compare the two far sides (far left vs far right) its the die hard trumpers that have the smaller base but are more vocal. But we'll see how the election pans out, I don't expect either side to play far so I have no idea who will win but I do think we'll start seeing the most aggressive attack ads they've done in an election before.

[max_boost]

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It's something like 6%, yes. But it's far from certain Biden can hold. I am still predicting a trump victory, as of June 19, 2020. (feel free to quote this if you want to hold me to it).

Once again, I agree with ExtraSlow.

[Buster]

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I think you are vastly overestimating the number of people who hate trump, just because the anti trumpers are loud and obnoxious and the amount of coverage the MSM provides them.

It’s super easy to live in an echo chamber where you think the vast majority of people hate Donald Trump. But it isn’t true.

Presidential elections have never been about the entrenched ends of the spectrum who will get out and vote and vote the way they decided to before ever hearing a candidates name no matter what. It’s about motivating the middle and getting demographics who usually don’t vote out to vote.

Biden is not a great candidate for that, even the die hard democrats have a hard time keeping him on a leash long enough not to alienate people.

this is the correct analysis.

[sabad66]

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this is the correct analysis.

Aren’t you a data guy? What data supports this “correct” analysis? All we have really is polling and history, and polling at the moment does not support this. Indeed independents/undecided are the ones who win elections but I haven’t seen anything indicating they are either leaning trump or planning on staying home so how do you guys draw this conclusion?

[Buster]

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Aren’t you a data guy? What data supports this “correct” analysis? All we have really is polling and history, and polling at the moment does not support this. Indeed independents/undecided are the ones who win elections but I haven’t seen anything indicating they are either leaning trump or planning on staying home so how do you guys draw this conclusion?

It's important to know when you have data that is useful or when you don't. When I don't that doesn't mean I don't have thoughts, it just means I'm expecting to change my thoughts quickly if good data does present itself.

[sabad66]

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It's important to know when you have data that is useful or when you don't. When I don't that doesn't mean I don't have thoughts, it just means I'm expecting to change my thoughts quickly if good data does present itself.

Fair enough, I was genuinely curious if there has been some sort of study on the Independents' enthusiasm/staying home factor because I totally agree that's what will decide it. I can see why both sides think they have the advantage on that (Trump side basing it on last election's 'silent majority' coming out, while Biden side basing it on recent polling/current events), but I don't think there is enough there to draw a conclusion yet.

[Buster]

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Fair enough, I was genuinely curious if there has been some sort of study on the Independents' enthusiasm/staying home factor because I totally agree that's what will decide it. I can see why both sides think they have the advantage on that (Trump side basing it on last election's 'silent majority' coming out, while Biden side basing it on recent polling/current events), but I don't think there is enough there to draw a conclusion yet.

I tend to judge these things not based on any data the polling suggests (I learned that lesson in 2016). I judge these things based on how well it appears either candidate is activating those people who would vote for them. 2016 seemed to be a bit weird as quite a few people who voted for Obama switched sides. I'm not sure that the reciprocal might happen here, as Biden is just a dopier version of Clinton in many ways.

But if Trump has enough ammunition to get his people angry enough to go to the polls, then I think he wins.

The current move towards "defund the police" and the general lawlessness in the Democratic strongholds will give him a huge stick to motivate the voters. Plus Biden falling asleep during the debates. I think the Democrats have to keep Biden out of anything risky, and hope that more people hate Trump this election than last election. Seems like a sketchy strategy. You can hate Trump all you want, I'd find little to argue against that. But the Democrats, as a party, are a bunch of losers. The people they put in front of their party are half dead (Pelosi and Biden), or AOC types, who remind me of the Alberta NDP.

Brett Weinstein had a suggestion recently that this is a perfect time for an independent ticket to come in and do some damage. His suggestion was Admiral MCraven and Andrew Yang. Centre-right and Centre-left. I think they would win.

[sabad66]

It’s hilarious seeing Trump Campaign-style attack ads coming from Republicans. Nice work Lincoln Project: