2020 US Election mega thread

[Mitsu3000gt]

IMO there is no way Trump wins at this point assuming a fair election - just my prediction. Trump is being judged on a botched prior term (in most people's eyes, anyway) and Biden has the inherit benefit of being the 'newcomer' and VP to one of the most well liked presidents in US history. The data also shows that Trump doesn't really get many new voters, his base is significant and fiercely loyal but doesn't really grow, so his struggle is more about not losing voters rather than gaining new ones. 2016 was such a unique year because so few people came out to vote, and this time they have record numbers showing up (same with 2018 for the midterm elections, which flipped the House blue), and people don't usually don't do that because they're happy.

Neither candidate is amazing but that seems to be a theme with US elections haha.

[Buster]

I learned in 2016 that election predictions are dangerous. I'm just riding this one out as an observer.

[ExtraSlow]

the 538 forecast had the 2016 election MUCH closer for most of the time. It ended with Trump willing 1/3 of thier simulations roughly.

[2Legit2Quit]

[pheoxs]

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I learned in 2016 that election predictions are dangerous. I'm just riding this one out as an observer.

It's important to note that after the 2016 election a lot of the pollsters adjusted their weighing to better account for the way districts were drawn as well as the electoral college. Obviously all polls are just guestimates but a 70/30 estimate for 2016 is different than a 70/30 estimate for this election for many of the pollsters. Since 538 includes those, their current predictions should be more accurate (keyword: should).

[revelations]

One thing is for sure, had HRC been running this year - any negative mass media/social coverage of her would not have been allowed like it was in 2016 - for eg. her health and the email debacle.

It would have been much more suppressed in the same manner as the biden debacle has been. Much more controlled now.

[Tik-Tok]

Looking forward to President Harris in a year or so.

[SJW]

Does anyone wanna place bets on how long Melania will take to leave Donald after he loses the election?

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Does anyone wanna place bets on how long Melania will take to leave Donald after he loses the election?

What's a few more years of crippling unhappiness? She didn't leave him when her life got even worse after he became president (look at her face when she found out lol), she isn't going to leave after. Also she's 25 years younger than him so she doesn't have to wait long to be alone and get everything vs be alone and get half.

[SJW]

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What's a few more years of crippling unhappiness? She didn't leave him when her life got even worse after he became president (look at her face when she found out lol), she isn't going to leave after. Also she's 25 years younger than him so she doesn't have to wait long to be alone and get everything vs be alone and get half.

Shes so disgusted with him. You can see it in her face every time shes beside him. Why does this look, look so familiar.

[sabad66]

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Does anyone wanna place bets on how long Melania will take to leave Donald after he loses the election?

Within a year is my guess. She allegedly renegotiated her prenup before she moved into the WH so she has clearly given it a lot of thought.

[lasimmon]

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What's a few more years of crippling unhappiness? She didn't leave him when her life got even worse after he became president (look at her face when she found out lol), she isn't going to leave after. Also she's 25 years younger than him so she doesn't have to wait long to be alone and get everything vs be alone and get half.

Does he even have any money?

[sabad66]

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What's a few more years of crippling unhappiness? She didn't leave him when her life got even worse after he became president (look at her face when she found out lol), she isn't going to leave after. Also she's 25 years younger than him so she doesn't have to wait long to be alone and get everything vs be alone and get half.

That's an interesting angle, i guess its worth it to hold out til he dies and get everything. Can't be that much longer really.

[pheoxs]

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Does anyone wanna place bets on how long Melania will take to leave Donald after he loses the election?

I wonder how their 1B in debt would be split. Would be kinda hilarious of Trump's prenup says everything is his and she walks away debt free.

I doubt they'll stay together to the end of 2021. 100% she splits if he gets booted out.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Does he even have any money?

Apparently he is over $1B in debt, $900M of that due within the next 4 years. He is actually a horrible business man, which is ironic. He even managed to have casino's that were not profitable lol.

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That's an interesting angle, i guess its worth it to hold out til he dies and get everything. Can't be that much longer really.

She waited this long, I can't see her leaving so close to the end. It was clearly a transactional relationship from the start, so I doubt she would leave that much money on the table (assuming he has anything left after his debt calls). Broke or not, he still lives like he's rich, so as long as Melania is married to him she shares in that.

The stress of all the law suits waiting for him the instant his presidency is over will probably take another few years off.

[Buster]

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Apparently he is over $1B in debt, $900M of that due within the next 4 years. He is actually a horrible business man, which is ironic.

What do you mean by "due"?

[Mitsu3000gt]

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What do you mean by "due"?

What isn't clear about it? When he borrowed that money he agreed beforehand to pay it back by X date. He runs most business into the ground including his golf and hotel resorts, and now he can't repay the loans. His towers are by far his most valuable assets, and the debt collectors or banks will seize them if he doesn't pay. Most likely he will have to give up those properties or sell his few profitable ones just to pay off the debts on the ones he ran into the ground.

The concerning part is that nobody knows who some of that money is owed to - imagine having that kind of leverage over an ex president, especially one who openly shares National Security info and gives family members with zero experience intelligence clearance that nobody in those positions has ever received before.

[Disoblige]

It's hilarious how one person can just read an online article and base it off like it's clear facts or a well articulated thought.
Everyone is an expert these days with Netflix and news articles from Google headlines
Fuck off.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1375290.html

[FraserB]

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What isn't clear about it? When he borrowed that money he agreed beforehand to pay it back by X date. He runs most business into the ground including his golf and hotel resorts, and now he can't repay the loans. His towers are by far his most valuable assets, and the debt collectors or banks will seize them if he doesn't pay. Most likely he will have to give up those properties or sell his few profitable ones just to pay off the debts on the ones he ran into the ground.

The concerning part is that nobody knows who some of that money is owed to - imagine having that kind of leverage over an ex president, especially one who openly shares National Security info and gives family members with zero experience intelligence clearance that nobody in those positions has ever received before.

I’m sure there is a source for this. And not the usual “google it”

[Xtrema]

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get half.

Half of what? His half billion dollar debt?