2020 US Election mega thread

[sabad66]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

I don't care enough to go investigate their methods. Obviously this election is going to be close, and the results will be what they will regardless what the pollsters say. But it's just weird that as Trump continues to gain ground in places like Florida, that are a must win, this graph continues to show his chances dwindling, instead of reflecting his advancements.

You're right that it's tightening in Florida which is good for Trump, but he also needs PA for most paths to 270 EVs and that race is NOT tightening:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/

The closer it gets to election day without the PA race tightening just lowers the overall win chances.

This interactive is pretty cool to play with and shows just how important PA and FL are for Trump. If he doesn't win both and instead only wins FL, then he needs to win like 10 other states including all of the Rust Belt which is a very tall order.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...den-trump.html

Even if he wins both PA and FL and all the "toss up" states like GA, IA, OH, NC, he still needs a few rust belts states like MI or WI that are polling quite blue at the moment to reach 270.

Nothing is impossible but this explains why the odds are what they are at this point.

[sabad66]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Again, you don't know how things work.

There are a variety of reasons he might have to personally guarantee debt - not all of them are obvious, not all of them are what they appear. And a guarantee is not the same as debt. A Borrower and Guarantor are distinct statuses and should not be interchanged.

Stop googling shit and then clicking on the WP or NYT links. Bad for your brain.

What happens if the borrower (Trump Corp) can't pay the debts that are due? Doesn't that mean the guarantor (Trump personally) is now responsible for the amount they guaranteed? For example if there is a $200M loan personally guaranteed for $25M that can't be paid, does that mean Trump has to give up $25M out of his personal funds?

I get that Trump has a high net worth, but if you have to come up with tens of millions in cash I would assume it's very hard to do if your wealth is tied up in RE assets only.

[Tik-Tok]

Mods, thread split please. Last few pages belong in the finance section

[Buster]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

What happens if the borrower (Trump Corp) can't pay the debts that are due? Doesn't that mean the guarantor (Trump personally) is now responsible for the amount they guaranteed? For example if there is a $200M loan personally guaranteed for $25M that can't be paid, does that mean Trump has to give up $25M out of his personal funds?

I get that Trump has a high net worth, but if you have to come up with tens of millions in cash I would assume it's very hard to do if your wealth is tied up in RE assets only.

It is highly dependent on the nature of the guarantee.

When you say they "can't pay the debts" do you mean they can't meet the payments, or they can't refinance, or they can't liquidate to cover the debt? All of these things matter. The Borrower would have pledged assets to secure the loan (a building, say), and that asset would need to be liquidated at a loss, either by Trump or through a receivership. Then his personal assets would be exposed to make up the difference. But there would be about a million better alternatives for the lenders before all of that came to pass. Trump would need to be refused by other lenders to re-finance the debt, he would need to refuse to cross-guarantee other assets to support such a re-finance. He would have to find himself in a situation where $2.5 billion in real estate and other assets are not throwing off enough cash in aggregate to service the debt on $900 million. That's possible, but then I doubt his assets would be considered to have $2.5billion in value.

[Disoblige]

Why is it so hard for Mitsu to STFU on stuff he has no idea about?
Opinions are totally fine as long as you don't present them like it's fact.

[sabad66]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

It is highly dependent on the nature of the guarantee.

When you say they "can't pay the debts" do you mean they can't meet the payments, or they can't refinance, or they can't liquidate to cover the debt? All of these things matter. The Borrower would have pledged assets to secure the loan (a building, say), and that asset would need to be liquidated at a loss, either by Trump or through a receivership. Then his personal assets would be exposed to make up the difference. But there would be about a million better alternatives for the lenders before all of that came to pass. Trump would need to be refused by other lenders to re-finance the debt, he would need to refuse to cross-guarantee other assets to support such a re-finance. He would have to find himself in a situation where $2.5 billion in real estate and other assets are not throwing off enough cash in aggregate to service the debt on $900 million. That's possible, but then I doubt his assets would be considered to have $2.5billion in value.

Very interesting, thanks for that. That is a great point that there are many steps/options that need to be exhausted before lenders to the point where they have to go after the personal guarantee. As usual the headlines don't explain these important details.

[Disoblige]

The notion I get from this is when times are good, buy the shit out of everything and deal with the consequences later when times are bad. You still "own" things for a very long time until the day you don't, which is a day that might not surface itself anyways.

[Buster]

Hard to learn lessons from people like Trump. They're too unique.

I mean the guy:

1. Built businesses with net values in the billions. Twice.
2. Married a supermodel. Twice.
3. Doesn't just own, but IS one of the most recognizable brand names in the world.
4. Became President of the United States

But ya, he's a moron and a fuckup according to half the people here.

TDS is realz.

[killramos]

Trump is only as bankrupt as pretty well all of the most secure oil and gas companies in Calgary haha.

[Mitsu3000gt]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Again, you don't know how things work.

There are a variety of reasons he might have to personally guarantee debt - not all of them are obvious, not all of them are what they appear. And a guarantee is not the same as debt. A Borrower and Guarantor are distinct statuses and should not be interchanged.

Stop googling shit and then clicking on the WP or NYT links. Bad for your brain.

Unless you have insider info, you have access to the same info as everyone else and are speculating all the same. Nobody knows the specific terms of all his loans. I don't follow the NYT or WP

All I said was some of the debt was personally guaranteed, and now you are putting words in my mouth and replying to yourself. I haven't made any speculative statements on how exactly the debt will be handled or claimed to know exactly what will happen.

We will see what happens when the time comes, until then everyone is speculating.

[The_Rural_Juror]

Breitbart says not so fast.

Trump facing devastating debt load? Experts say not so fast
https://www.breitbart.com/news/trump...y-not-so-fast/

[Buster]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Unless you have insider info, you have access to the same info as everyone else and are speculating all the same. Nobody knows the specific terms of all his loans. I don't follow the NYT or WP

All I said was some of the debt was personally guaranteed, and now you are putting words in my mouth and replying to yourself. I haven't made any speculative statements on how exactly the debt will be handled or claimed to know exactly what will happen.

We will see what happens when the time comes, until then everyone is speculating.

Last page it was he can't pay his debts, and as a result he is owned by shadowy lenders (like Deutsche Bank), and everyone has influence over him because he's insolvent.

And now it's "we're all just speculating."

Don't walk your comments back, just own them.

This is why serious people don't take TDSers seriously.

[The_Rural_Juror]

OMG are just as bad as TDS. Good people on all three sides of course.

[Mitsu3000gt]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Last page it was he can't pay his debts, and as a result he is owned by shadowy lenders (like Deutsche Bank), and everyone has influence over him because he's insolvent.

And now it's "we're all just speculating."

Don't walk your comments back, just own them.

This is why serious people don't take TDSers seriously.

What part of "apparently", "most likely", and "nobody knows" give you the idea that I am not speculating like everyone else? I thought I was making it pretty clear, along with the obvious fact that nobody knows all the details. Everyone is just hear to discuss what we read in the news, no need to take it so seriously.

[Kobe]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Hard to learn lessons from people like Trump. They're too unique.

I mean the guy:

1. Built businesses with net values in the billions. Twice.
2. Married a supermodel. Twice.
3. Doesn't just own, but IS one of the most recognizable brand names in the world.
4. Became President of the United States

But ya, he's a moron and a fuckup according to half the people here.

TDS is realz.

I'm against trump I wouldn't say he is a "moron" but more of an "egotistic lunatic" To be fair though I am also against Joe Biden and against how the US system is working, and it will not be fixed till they take it seriously and stop trying to fix leaks in the system and repair the whole system.

If you have a 20 year old car and you fix the wheels only and its barely running/low milage but now it runs again that is not fixing the car.

everyone keeps saying all of his Businesses that are net values in the billions. But I'd really like to research which ones, from what I could find are the following

Trump National Doral
Trump Old Post Office LLC
Trump Ruffin Tower
Trump Turnberry
Mar-a-logo Club LLC

I haven't researched his businesses much but I hope someone more educated on it then me can enlighten me.

Trump Doral Miami is a golf course where the secret service have been charged $17,000/month for a three-bedroom cottage. He keeps the money BTW
Trump Old Post Office LLC - This was leased to him in 2013 by the US General Services Administration. Seems he turned this into the Trump International Hotel.
Trump Ruffin Tower - (Vegas hotel) - in 2002 Phil Ruffin announced that he had partnered with Trump to build the Trump Tower. Second tower has been in talks to be built since 2008, but they wanted the first tower to be sold out first (Liquidity problem?)
Trump Turnberry - Scotland - Golf Course - Again HUGE issues about when Mike Pence went to visit and they had to stay at this hotel. Trump says he has nothing to do with the decision except the detour cost about $600,000. (Again trump profits)
Mar-a-logo Club LLC - 1.2 Million in revenue from secret service staying there. It's had over 100 MILLION in revenues since trump took office, and a big part of that is tax payers paying for trump to go there.

Now 4 out of his 5 businesses seem to be related to golf (That haven't gone under) Not only golf but the marketing of prices seems to be for the healthy.

Which would make sense as to why he needs a strong stock market, it makes the rich have money and able to spend at his resorts.

Now let's see the businesses that have failed.

1. Trump Steaks
2. GoTrump
3. Trump Airlines
4. Trump Vodka
5. Trump Mortgage
6. Trump: The Game
7. Trump Magazine
8. Trump University ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_University)
9. Trump Ice
10. The New Jersey Generals
11. Tour de Trump
12. Trump Network
13. Trumped! (Trump reading ads on the air)

Now With Trump University there has been plenty of lawsuits of people getting scammed.

The Taj Mahal had like a 9% (I need to get the actual % but it was high for a loan to buy it) clearly with such a high interest rate his profit margins would be very low, but it's the contractors that took the fault for this. Interest Rates were high since no bank actually wanted to loan him the money.

Lots of Lawsuits about the Trump University as well with not getting what people paid for becuase they signed up from the "brand recognition" and he could charge a premium (This is fair and why reputation is so important)

2. Married a supermodel. Twice.

Very good comment, again showing just how he can mis-manage money, Hopefully he did have prenups for all of them though, even with them on his second marrage Ivanka was rewarded 25million and the Greenwich mansion (or an additional 22 million if it was sold before the divorce) He also had to pay 650,000/y for 3 children.

Basically trump most likely lost around 50 million in two divorces, it would of been more but he did not have the capital

The final deal was reached after months of negotiations intended to ensure Ivana would receive the money from Donald, who was reportedly deep in debt from real estate deals and could not obtain the money through bank loans.

Now we can say "Fake news" except this is exactly what happened with his casino in Atlantic City, NOBODY WANTED TO GIVE HIM LOANS SO HE HAD TO PAY MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES.

3. Doesn't just own, but IS one of the most recognizable brand names in the world.

Correct he was one of the bigger names in the world, Becuase a lot of countries "Trump" name was big in paid him to use his name, this is called Branding and I have to give to to Trump, he has done a very good job at it, it does not mean his business is good though. For Example Lexus or Mercedes (I forget which of the two) would have parts break on purpose and offer outstanding customer service to fix them and even though the cars broke down, the service for repairs was exceptional and it increased there brand recognition.

The final deal was reached after months of negotiations intended to ensure Ivana would receive the money from Donald, who was reportedly deep in debt from real estate deals and could not obtain the money through bank loans.

Now we can say "Fake news" except this is exactly what happened with his casino in Atlantic City, NOBODY WANTED TO GIVE HIM LOANS SO HE HAD TO PAY MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES.

4. Became President of the United States

Again Branding plays a huge roll in this, when all his failed businesses are not really made public we only get half the story, Companies tend to downplay issues a lot to save their reputation. (Not just trump)

Trump in unique he used the power of branding to make it seem he has done much better then he is, I have to give this to him, expect this does not help when you know american banks did not want to borrow to Trump so he had to go to overseas banks such as Deutsche Bank

But I'll gladly listen to arguments about how the golf courses he owns

Edit: Trump Winery on the Trump Organizations website is owned by Eric Trump as of 2012, I'm sure he has more properties but you will see they are only catered to wealthier people, which means he would for personal benefit want to increase their networths to benefit himself. (Please prove me wrong, I'm willing to say sorry you were right)

Also The Trump Fundation was closed down on December 18th, 2018 for some very shady business acts, but I'll let you research exactly what the Trump Foundation did to have the DOJ shut them down while he is president, which again will most likely be a lawsuit if he isn't president and remains in America.

Now I sound harsh on trump here and I might seem like a Biden supporter but the thing is Biden can not fix the issues holding america back from "Greatness" just like Trump has shown he can't either (Creating jobs on debt which causes inflation does not make america great, but inflation increasing and more money for people holding stocks and land)

Trumps biggest downfall would be deflation, as he is extremely over leveraged (Even if he said he isn't) as most corportations are (Why they pay minimal to no taxes)

But ya, he's a moron and a fuckup according to half the people here.

I wouldn't say he is a moron I would say he abused the system, and he continues to abuse the system to benefit himself and not fix the wealth gap (This would not benefit him)

This can only be fixed if america losses the reserve currency status, and if they did separate (I think this is likely) to re-write a lot of the broken laws they currently have that will NEVER be fixed in the current situation.

[Kobe]

I just checked the data, the Taj Mahal which cost a total of 1.2billion and he started it at his peak (when he was earning millions)

So in April 1988 he purchased the building and said "The bankers are standing in line to lend me money at a friendly rate"

However this was not actually the case, there was nobody in line to loan him the money so he had to go into the Bond markets and borrowed $675 MILLION for the project with an interest rate of 14%

Yes 14% interest rate on 675 MILLION for a 1 Billion dollar investment.

Let this sink in for a second..

When he went under he owed 60 MILLION to contractors that never did get paid, but it's ok he profitted from it.

The Taj Mahal ended up selling for 4 cents on the dollar, cost him 1.2 billion to make it, they opened it when it wasn't fully complete since they didn't have the capital to wait any longer and that 14% interest rate..

The Taj Mahal also sold for 50 Million on March 1st, 2017
Let's remember there is also inflation happening from 1990 to 2017, Seems like a very good business opportunity?

It's just funny how we can justify he is worth money and he has done nothing wrong since he didn't actually lose money only everyone that worked for him did. (Or atleast a high percentage of contractors)

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Last page it was he can't pay his debts, and as a result he is owned by shadowy lenders (like Deutsche Bank), and everyone has influence over him because he's insolvent.

And now it's "we're all just speculating."

Don't walk your comments back, just own them.

This is why serious people don't take TDSers seriously.

When the non-shady lenders don't want to loan to you then you kind of need to go to shady lenders...

But this is why Taj Mahal had 14% interest rates on 675 MILLION I guess?

Taken from an article in 1990: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...935-story.html

The arrangement was reached more than 12 hours after Trump missed a $47.3-million interest payment on $675 million worth of high-yield junk bonds used to finance the gambling parlor, the biggest and ritziest in Atlantic City.

[The_Rural_Juror]

@Buster said to discredit anyone who excessively multi-quotes.
brb with some more Breitbart.

[JohnnyHockey13]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

What's a few more years of crippling unhappiness? She didn't leave him when her life got even worse after he became president (look at her face when she found out lol), she isn't going to leave after. Also she's 25 years younger than him so she doesn't have to wait long to be alone and get everything vs be alone and get half.

Wow I had to google this, she's 50?!?! WTF...compare her to Harris who is 56, I know it's not PC to talk about this but wow what a difference. I always assumed she was an old old women with lots of plastic surgery.

[Mitsu3000gt]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Wow I had to google this, she's 50?!?! WTF...compare her to Harris who is 56, I know it's not PC to talk about this but wow what a difference. I always assumed she was an old old women with lots of plastic surgery.

Central European genes vs African/Asian haha - the latter tend not to age until they hit around age 80

[01RedDX]

.