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    Default #ShutDownCanada - Build Nothing

    I wanted to separate this from the #IdleNoMore discussion, because this really isn't about indigenous issues, or, they are a very small part of the puzzle anyway. We seem to be headed down a path where no major infrastructure project of any type can be built anywhere in Canada. The people who shout "NO!" have more power, leeway and control than any project proponent. A usual, an opinion piece says it better than I can:

    Diane Francis - The Beginning of the end of Canada's High Living Standards
    Quote Originally Posted by Diane Francis in the National Post
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    This week a tragedy happened. It was not about Teck. It was about the future of Alberta and Saskatchewan within Canada
    ...
    Teck pulled the plug because Canada is now an untenable political risk. It no longer matters who does or doesn’t approve resource and infrastructure projects. They simply cannot be finished. Canada, in other words, is not worth the risk.
    What an incredible situation, where businesses consider Canada to be an unreasonably risky jurisdiction.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Excellent column by Diane.

    I've been vocally pro separatist over the last while because I thought I had another 10-15 years in Canada. But I'm thinking it will be more like 5, max, so I'm off the separatist bandwagon at the moment. As the country's revenue streams dry up, the government will turn to the assets held by the upper-middle class to continue to fund the country. That will mean aggressive and punitive tax policies on high earners and those with capital. They may even make it difficult to move money out of the country at some point, who knows.

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    My best guess is there will need to be "an additional blow" to the West before any action of sorts starts happening.
    Ultracrepidarian

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    Excellent column by Diane.

    I've been vocally pro separatist over the last while because I thought I had another 10-15 years in Canada. But I'm thinking it will be more like 5, max, so I'm off the separatist bandwagon at the moment. As the country's revenue streams dry up, the government will turn to the assets held by the upper-middle class to continue to fund the country. That will mean aggressive and punitive tax policies on high earners and those with capital. They may even make it difficult to move money out of the country at some point, who knows.

    I'm starting to rethink my plan of going back to T4 employment. I should consider just relocating my business "HQ" to Cayman Islands, and start paying myself as an employee of the company for 30k/yr in Canada. Let the business income/revenue go through Caymans and quit paying tax on it.

    At the very least I am highly motivated to get my other ventures to a sustainable enough point that I can vacate this useless country.

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    Teck didn’t pull out for political reasons, they pulled out because the project wasn’t economical.

    People are so dumb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misterman View Post
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    I'm starting to rethink my plan of going back to T4 employment. I should consider just relocating my business "HQ" to Cayman Islands, and start paying myself as an employee of the company for 30k/yr in Canada. Let the business income/revenue go through Caymans and quit paying tax on it.

    At the very least I am highly motivated to get my other ventures to a sustainable enough point that I can vacate this useless country.
    You should just move to the Caymans while you are at it. Bar on the beach has always been my fuck it strategy.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
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    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You should just move to the Caymans while you are at it. Bar on the beach has always been my fuck it strategy.
    I'm thinking Vegas. All I need is a craps table at a casino to make a living.

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You should just move to the Caymans while you are at it. Bar on the beach has always been my fuck it strategy.
    This 100%, surf shop by day, bar on the beach by night.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misterman View Post
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    I'm thinking Vegas. All I need is a craps table at a casino to make a living.
    Yea this - i know a few people who could make on something specific like this (poker) alone..... but they dont want to do 'it' for a living.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    Yea this - i know a few people who could make on something specific like this (poker) alone..... but they dont want to do 'it' for a living.
    Takes a lot of balls and bankroll, especially when you have kids and family to worry about. And the pension and benefits are shit. But it's a way to say Fuck You to the government.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Teck didn’t pull out for political reasons, they pulled out because the project wasn’t economical.

    People are so dumb.
    And the economics suck because of politics. You aren't any smarter bro.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Teck didn’t pull out for political reasons, they pulled out because the project wasn’t economical.

    People are so dumb.
    Boosted life tip #329
    Girlfriends cost money
    Turbos cost money
    Both make whining noises
    Make the smart choice.

    Originally posted by Mibz
    Always a fucking awful experience seeing spikers. Extra awful when he laps me.

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    I love empty threats when it comes to how Canada is going. “Ohh Alberta should separate or I’ll leave” “I’m a doc the cuts a suck so I’ll leave”

    Meanwhile no material number of people do anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lasimmon View Post
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    I love empty threats when it comes to how Canada is going. “Ohh Alberta should separate or I’ll leave” “I’m a doc the cuts a suck so I’ll leave”

    Meanwhile no material number of people do anything.
    watch me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Teck didn’t pull out for political reasons, they pulled out because the project wasn’t economical.

    People are so dumb.
    And just why do you think it’s not economical? What do you think the foundational cause is?

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    Dare to live the dream. Solar powered Tiki hut in the tropics, enough power for a bar fridge and a PS5 hooked up to a projection phone. Eat abalone all day.
    0.5 gram microsd delivered by 12,000 pound combustion vehicle and driver.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cjblair View Post
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    And just why do you think it’s not economical? What do you think the foundational cause is?

    Lol. I don’t think he’s that dense, I’m sure he knows this.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Teck didn’t pull out for political reasons, they pulled out because the project wasn’t economical.

    People are so dumb.
    This actually made me lol.

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    I tend to agree with what 89coupe said. The only way it’s economical is if you consider the entire life of the mine at an average price of $95 US WTI price
    https://www.nationalobserver.com/202...-frontier-mine

    They would be operating a loss for multiple years until the price recovers (if it ever does at all). And that’s only IF they found a partner willing to invest in a brand new mine knowing they won’t see a profit for a long time.

    You have to remember they started this thing in 2010 when mines were still economical at $100+ oil. They kept going with the project even after the 2014 price crash because they thought it would recover, and then 5 years later it still hasn’t and they realized it was not going to make sense. I think deep down they wanted liberals to deny it and then when it looked like it might happen, they withdrew to save face.

    Edit: I will say that politics was definitely a contributing factor, but i still think economics was ultimately the biggest reason
    Last edited by sabad66; 02-29-2020 at 12:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabad66 View Post
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    I tend to agree with what 89coupe said. The only way it’s economical is if you consider the entire life of the mine at an average price of $95 US WTI price
    https://www.nationalobserver.com/202...-frontier-mine

    They would be operating a loss for multiple years until the price recovers (if it ever does at all). And that’s only IF they found a partner willing to invest in a brand new mine knowing they won’t see a profit for a long time.

    You have to remember they started this thing in 2010 when mines were still economical at $100+ oil. They kept going with the project even after the 2014 price crash because they thought it would recover, and then 5 years later it still hasn’t and they realized it was not going to make sense. I think deep down they wanted liberals to deny it and then when it looked like it might happen, they withdrew to save face.

    Edit: I will say that politics was definitely a contributing factor, but i still think economics was ultimately the biggest reason
    100+ oil? Don’t believe this propaganda.

    Sigh, I’ll be woke and try to enlighten. This isn’t directed to you, hopefully some more people can take more form this.

    CNRL can produce For $20 CDN. And they quote this number for synthetic (probably higher than WCS net back)

    Using backyard math I found this:

    At 40billion (just a number I pulled out of my ass) of total capital to sustain the Frontier mine for 40 years at 260,000/day. No expansion.

    Now, let’s use $25USD (much HIGHER than cnrl) as op cost. That means I’m 40 years it’s approx. another $12/bbl to recoup capital costs. Shit throw another $5 on there for reclamation and incidentals.

    Putting us at $42 USD. Shit make it an even $50 because I’m generous.

    Now, let’s assume a pipeline was In place. Is it unfeasible to pretend WCS would sell for only a $5 discount to WTI and roughly $10 to Brent? Yeah I can see it.

    Is this sort of making sense now? I was very liberal with numbers and threw a bunch of extra in there. Reality would be op cost would be optimized and $15USD could be seen within 10 years.

    Long/short: it’s feasible and economical at 60WTI ALL DAY.

    And just in case, here’s some proof.

    https://www.cnrl.com/upload/media_el...-front-end.pdf

    CNRL has said they need 39WTI USD to break even with our current pipeline system.

    With TM and others, they likely be breakeven at $34. See what’s happening here?
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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