$19.97 barrel oil?

[Brent.ff]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tc-...line-1.5515850

"TC Energy Corp. said on Tuesday it would proceed with the construction of the long-delayed $8 billion US Keystone XL pipeline project after getting a $1.1 billion US equity investment from the Alberta government."

Can this government just admit that they're a bunch of oil-based socialists?

[Darkane]

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tc-...line-1.5515850

"TC Energy Corp. said on Tuesday it would proceed with the construction of the long-delayed $8 billion US Keystone XL pipeline project after getting a $1.1 billion US equity investment from the Alberta government."

Can this government just admit that they're a bunch of oil-based socialists?

This was in the works and I think it’s direct agreements with Trump/Kenney govt to help get off foreign oil dependency.

Another 800+ down to the states would definitely help.

[ExtraSlow]

The timing is really gross, cutting teaching assistants and other government employees while spending 1.6 Billion CAD (according to XE.com this morning), HOWEVER, I think it's a smart move. Probably recoup the investment in increased royalties due to increased local oil price, plus a share of the profits of the line. It's like buying PPL, a real shrewd move.
I will not be able to say that on social media however. I expect pitchforks and torches over this by lunchtime today.

[killramos]

At least it’s an equity investment, rather than the 0% interest loans that will never be repaid staple of the Trudeau government.

Can’t say I agree with it, but as far as evils go this one is relatively mild.

It’s also about alignment, with skin in the game if we ever have another regime change who wants to cancel the project they are acknowledging flushing the 1.1B down the toilet to do it.

[Supa Dexta]

I can't remember what year it was, a handful of years ago now.. That rich guys were said to be buying oil and holding it in tankers off shore, when there was a slide in price. Can't imagine boats sitting offshore are too cheap by the day.

here's a current article on the same thing though:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...quick-profits/

[ThePenIsMightier]

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I can't remember what year it was, a handful of years ago now.. That rich guys were said to be buying oil and holding it in tankers off shore, when there was a slide in price. Can't imagine boats sitting offshore are too cheap by the day.

here's a current article on the same thing though:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...quick-profits/

I heard that too. I think it was maybe 2016?

[dirtsniffer]

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You are wrong, stupid and a poor businessman, like everyone who works in oil and gas.

I'm liking the dark mode extra slow!

[ExtraSlow]

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I'm liking the dark mode extra slow!

ExtraSlow is dealing with some dark things. I hope to be back on the sunny side of the street soon, but until then, watch out!

[killramos]

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ExtraSlow is dealing with some dark things. I hope to be back on the sunny side of the street soon, but until then, watch out!

Can I ubereats you some beer? Haha

[ExtraSlow]

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Can I ubereats you some beer? Haha

I will never say no to beer, but I have been stress-drinking a lot lately, so I'm trying to take two days in a row off.

[Tik-Tok]

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Can this government just admit that they're a bunch of oil-based socialists?

I don't think socialist is the correct word here.

[sabad66]

Buying equity in O&G projects is only bad when Liberals do it

[The_Rural_Juror]

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Can I ubereats you some beer? Haha

I want to ubereats ExtraSlow some prostitutes as well to cheer him up. Boobereats.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6729303/b...us-strip-club/

[killramos]

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Buying equity in O&G projects is only bad when Liberals do it

Buying equity in businesses is bad government policy across the board, and I don’t think Kenney should have done it, however this deal doesn’t seem to cock up the math nearly as much as the TMX deal.

IMO Neither investment is likely to result in true returns to the government ( if you think so I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn), we will be lucky to get our money back on either case of corporate welfare.

So what these “investments” are really buying is tipping the company over the edge on a Go or No-Go decision. What we are buying is incremental egress capacity.

Let’s do the math on how much extra egress capacity Kenney’s equity investment bought us versus Trudeau’s. KXL 890Mbbl/d for Kenney’s 1.1 Billion: 1,235/flowing barrel of incremental egress. TMX 590 Mbbl/d of incremental capacity for 12.6B (let’s just ignore the cost Trudeau bought the stupid company for and just go with the amount the government is on the hook for to build the thing): 21,356/flowing barrel.

This is just 5 seconds of finding numbers, feel free to tweak them if I’m wrong as I’m not intimately familiar with either project, even if I am way off on either side though this deal is far better for Albertans, and Canada, than the Liberal cock up, though I don’t think either government should have done it.

But yea, the different reception to each is purely political.

[sabad66]

FWIW i'm the opposite and support both purchases. My view is that we are too far gone now with corporate socialism that there is no point in pretending/advocating otherwise, so if these things can save jobs i'm generally for it. I was just being a dickhead and pointing out the outrage differences between the two.

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So what these “investments” are really buying is tipping the company over the edge on a Go or No-Go decision. What we are buying is incremental egress capacity.

we are buying capacity but also assets. there is value in the equity of KXL or the complete ownership of TMX.

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Let’s do the math on how much extra egress capacity Kenney’s equity investment bought us versus Trudeau’s. KXL 890Mbbl/d for Kenney’s 1.1 Billion: 1,235/flowing barrel of incremental egress. TMX 590 Mbbl/d of incremental capacity for 12.6B (let’s just ignore the cost Trudeau bought the stupid company for and just go with the amount the government is on the hook for to build the thing): 21,356/flowing barrel.

your "invested $/additional flowing barrel" numbers are sound i think, but again missing a major part which is that there is more to it than just the extra capacity. I believe the overall strategy is to sell TMX out to a buyer once its built and in theory that would make up a lot of value that is missing in your point. And if they can't sell it then no big deal, they now have a profitable business that generates cashflow in addition to the extra capacity it provided benefit other producers.

also, there is another benefit to TMX compared to KXL which is that it opens up new markets where in theory producers could fetch higher prices. So just looking at volume doesn't paint the whole picture.

i'm not even going to bother with trying to calculate the full final value of either of these because someone who does this for a living will probably do it and would do a much better analysis than any back of the napkin calculation anyways.

[killramos]

Time will tell as to how these equity purchases will pay out, but I’m far less optimistic than you are I guess.

I don’t know how to decouple market prices of oil with the obvious geopolitical side of all this. I feel like we need to solve this craziness with policy rather than these private investments. I half wonder whether we are inevitably heading toward cleaving the world oil market in two, with a coalition of countries choosing collectively to no longer do business with OPEC+ over what will likely be stated as humanitarian and ethical reasons but with the backdrop of removing their power over world commodity markets.

“Shithole” countries of the world can continue buying their blood barrels from OPEC, but more developed economies can transition to only sourcing energy from countries that give two fucks about human rights and the environment. Which would be a perfect storm for Canada’s energy industry to prosper as the supplier of petroleum to the “woke” countries of the world.

Except the US runs on cheap energy way more than they do on stable oil markets so really nothing will ever change.

[Xtrema]

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I can't remember what year it was, a handful of years ago now.. That rich guys were said to be buying oil and holding it in tankers off shore, when there was a slide in price. Can't imagine boats sitting offshore are too cheap by the day.

here's a current article on the same thing though:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...quick-profits/

I have been hearing this since my career started in the 90s.

[mr2mike]

Boobereats!
Won't someone please think of the Strippers?

[Tik-Tok]

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Boobereats!
Won't someone please think of the Strippers?

I don't think I want to see them in the daylight... strip clubs are dark for a reason.

[ExtraSlow]

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I don't think I want to see them in the daylight... strip clubs are dark for a reason.

Alberta strippers are so so awful.