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Thread: $6.66/$4.44 barrel oil?

  1. #81
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    Interactive Brokers takes 88 million dollar loss on behalf of clients trading futures. They say it doesn't affect their financial position but I'll stick with one of the large banks as my broker.

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...-Oil-Contracts

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    Trump will swing to the federal reserves when all the tanks are corked.

    Free oil for a rainy day.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

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    If US government is looking to make a shrewd investment decision, they should wait to fill SPR. if they are looking to support the oil industry, they should start sooner. Even though I personally don't think they can store enough to really impact the physical storage situation, it's a powerful signal, and the market seems to be heavily weighted towards emotion.
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    I thought they already filled the strategic reserve?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    I thought they already filled the strategic reserve?
    They never got approval from the house is my understanding. There were some talks about leasing space in it as storage to private companies.

    To my knowledge not a drop of the 2020 glut has made it into SPR.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    They never got approval from the house is my understanding. There were some talks about leasing space in it as storage to private companies.

    To my knowledge not a drop of the 2020 glut has made it into SPR.
    That makes no sense on multiple levels.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    That makes no sense on multiple levels.
    Agreed, it seems like low hanging fruit to me.

    Timeline below which is hilarious, filling SPR was part of the initial stimulus plan in March ( 10th? ) then this happened:

    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3...-stimulus-plan

    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3...roleum-reserve

    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4...serve-capacity

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ash-2020-04-20
    Last edited by killramos; 04-22-2020 at 10:07 AM.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

  8. #88
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    the EIA publishes this data weekly. The twitterverse is not a good source of this information.
    https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
    Make the world a radder place, grow a mullet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    That makes no sense on multiple levels.
    Especially China is storing as much $10 oil from Iran as they can right now.

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    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil...nday-1.5546141
    Worlds largest crude futures ETF may have to dump June contract early as a repeat of the negative priced may contract seems imminent.

    Shits going to get crazier than last week....
    Make the world a radder place, grow a mullet.
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    Also, I don't follow Twitter to hear thoughts on filling the SPR, but I wonder if the weekly EIA report will show any storagee fill this week? Seems like easy math. Buy contracts for under $10.
    Make the world a radder place, grow a mullet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil...nday-1.5546141
    Worlds largest crude futures ETF may have to dump June contract early as a repeat of the negative priced may contract seems imminent.

    Shits going to get crazier than last week....
    Must find new etf...SCO?
    Last edited by msommers; 04-27-2020 at 10:06 PM.
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    CNQ way up today
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    Everything is green today. Nice inflection point with several of my positions net crossing back over to book profitability with some of the dip buying since the start of this mess.

    Not sure I believe it long term but it’s still nice to see.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Everything is green today. Nice inflection point with several of my positions net crossing back over to book profitability with some of the dip buying since the start of this mess.

    Not sure I believe it long term but it’s still nice to see.
    First time in months all of my positions have become net positive.
    Just keep swimming.

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    The CNQ shares I picked up for 15 bucks have certainly helped take the edge off.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    The CNQ shares I picked up for 15 bucks have certainly helped take the edge off.
    Totally, I averaged down quite a bit which is nice.

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    well, @Buster , @Darkane , the SPR has started some filling, but will it make a difference? Total USA production is remarkably resilient. 12,100,000 barrels a day as of this weeks report. 1,200,000 barrels of that went straight into storage tanks every day, but only 164,000 barrels went into SPR.
    EIA Weekly report 2020-4-24.PNG


    For funzies, the SPR holds ~797 million barrels, and the EIA says it has 636 million in it. If it's putting in 164 thousand barrels a day, then it can do this for . . . . . more than two and a half years . . . . . They have engineering limitations of something like 430,000 barrels per day, which would still take more than a year to fill.

    Knowing half battle.gif
    Last edited by ExtraSlow; 04-30-2020 at 11:42 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    well, @Buster , @Darkane , the SPR has started some filling, but will it make a difference? Total USA production is remarkably resilient. 12,100,000 barrels a day as of this weeks report. 1,200,000 barrels of that went straight into storage tanks every day, but only 164,000 barrels went into SPR.
    EIA Weekly report 2020-4-24.PNG





    For funzies, the SPR holds ~797 million barrels, and the EIA says it has 636 million in it. If it's putting in 164 thousand barrels a day, then it can do this for . . . . . more than two and a half years . . . . . They have engineering limitations of something like 430,000 barrels per day, which would still take more than a year to fill.

    Knowing half battle.gif
    Yeah. They’re not cutting as fast as I thought either.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    I feel like the storage situation is going to get totally crazy very soon. But hell, what do I know? Orderly shut-ins are one thing. Emergency shut-ins are coming, and some of those have the possibility of long term damage to equipment and reservoirs.
    Make the world a radder place, grow a mullet.
    Public Mobile is the best, just like Phil Collins' mullet.

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