$6.66/$4.44 barrel oil?

[The_Rural_Juror]

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cracked $45 for WTI. that's a nice level according to the people I sell to.

Are you a WTI trader also?

[ExtraSlow]

Negative

[SKR]

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Are you a WTI trader also?

He's an STI trader. Swinger parties in Airdrie.

[ExtraSlow]

I have a giving soul.

[ExtraSlow]

Well, USA oil production stable and steady at 11.0 million barrels a day. I don't think there's any weather-related shut-ins, and I also think any low-price related shut-ins from the first half of the year should be back online, so this is basically "flat out" right now. I had thought / hoped it would be lower. Will be interesting (to me anyway) how the push-pull of declines and new drilling leads to continued overall production decline, or a slow rise.

[ExtraSlow]

And for fans of Comic Sans . . . .

Storage going up is confirmation that there's still far too much oil being produced.

[riander5]

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Well, USA oil production stable and steady at 11.0 million barrels a day. I don't think there's any weather-related shut-ins, and I also think any low-price related shut-ins from the first half of the year should be back online, so this is basically "flat out" right now. I had thought / hoped it would be lower. Will be interesting (to me anyway) how the push-pull of declines and new drilling leads to continued overall production decline, or a slow rise.

Keep in mind the 8000 DUCs as of late 2019. I wonder what that numbers at now. ~4k alone in the permian

[ExtraSlow]

Yeah, I'm off the DUC bandwagon. Either those wells get completed now, or they ain't ever getting completed.

Those aren't the best wells, that's for sure.

[ExtraSlow]

Found some DUC info.

[killramos]

How many of those ducs are even drilled in a configuration that they would even be useful development wells?

[ExtraSlow]

I think that some big percentage of DUC wells fall into two baskets: 1) a normal inventory of wells that are going to be completed with only minor delays and 2) wells that will NEVER be completed.

Both of those can be ignored. it's basket 3) wells that will be profitably completed, but have fallen off the normal scheduling cycle, that have the chance of impacting the market. and let me tell you, if those wells were any good, they would have never fallen off the schedule.

I used to beat the DUC drum, but I'm off that completely, and now think its a total non-issue for the market.

[riander5]

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I think that some big percentage of DUC wells fall into two baskets: 1) a normal inventory of wells that are going to be completed with only minor delays and 2) wells that will NEVER be completed.

Both of those can be ignored. it's basket 3) wells that will be profitably completed, but have fallen off the normal scheduling cycle, that have the chance of impacting the market. and let me tell you, if those wells were any good, they would have never fallen off the schedule.

I used to beat the DUC drum, but I'm off that completely, and now think its a total non-issue for the market.

I agree, theres no science to this, but likely a quarter of those ever get completed and tied in unless oil goes ripping.

It would be interesting if someone did do a deep dive on it. Split it into categories like you mentioned.

Would be pretty much impossible so I won't hold my breath

[ExtraSlow]

You don't need to do a technical analysis of the wells, you can look at the behaviour of the companies that own them. They are choosing to add new rigs to drill rather than completing them. That's pretty clear that they suck.

[Type_S1]

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You don't need to do a technical analysis of the wells, you can look at the behaviour of the companies that own them. They are choosing to add new rigs to drill rather than completing them. That's pretty clear that they suck.

You’ve come to the dark side! I remember beating this drum in a past conversation where someone (maybe you) was all high-Ho on the fictitious DUC numbers haha. US declines are going to be big next year...DUCs won’t save it.

[phreezee]

OT, but didn't want to start a thread. Crazy world views out there.
The North Face:

The outdoor wear company said it did not want to support the oil and gas industry in the same way as it did not support the porn industry or Big Tobacco.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...-Oil-Firm.html

[ExtraSlow]

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You’ve come to the dark side! I remember beating this drum in a past conversation where someone (maybe you) was all high-Ho on the fictitious DUC numbers haha. US declines are going to be big next year...DUCs won’t save it.

Don't recall if that was me, but I do change my mind a lot. I'm wrong a lot, so maybe that's a virtue?

[Darkane]

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Don't recall if that was me, but I do change my mind a lot. I'm wrong a lot, so maybe that's a virtue?

Could have been me too. Shrug, lol.

[Type_S1]

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Could have been me too. Shrug, lol.

Too lazy to use search.

I’m in the “thick” of it down south and have been basically anti-US shale, from an investment/economic standpoint, for 3 years after being in the belly of the beast. The thing I find absolutely insane is the amount of M&A happening and going to happen in 2021. The entire unconventional/shale industry has basically been a ponzi-scheme and a massive cash loser for investors yet, somehow and someway, companies think it’s a good idea to buyout/merge other shale positions that also weren’t making money and somehow tout that the “synergies” (G&A cost savings) will make it profitable. It’s absolutely insanity to me that executive teams think that if you add a wheelbarrow of someone else’s shit to your pile of shit that it will turn it to gold. The entire cost structure of the industry needs to change to make shale work and be positive cash-flow generating. Maybe I’m the idiot here because it seems like 90% of companies still believe in the ultimate hamster-wheel of shale.

[killramos]

M&A is all about doubling down on price recovery, nothing more nothing less.

[Type_S1]

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M&A is all about doubling down on price recovery, nothing more nothing less.

This isn’t true at all...much more complex then that.