$6.66/$4.44 barrel oil?

[vengie]

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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/...e-the-most-of/

Opinion piece from some Ontario business school dude.

#doublemeat

[Tik-Tok]

What Canada should do, and what Canada will do are at odds with each other. The same goes with Alberta.

[Xtrema]

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#doublemeat

Hopefully we have a gov that will rebuilt the heritage fund so we can live off it down the road like Norway.

[nzwasp]

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Hopefully we have a gov that will rebuilt the heritage fund so we can live off it down the road like Norway.

Thats hilarious

[ZenOps]

Agree. There could be one more oil boom. North America especially considering we have horrible latent or potential electricity production capacity along with the USA and a badly mismanaged and decaying distribution grid.

[suntan]

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Hopefully we have a gov that will rebuilt the heritage fund so we can live off it down the road like Norway.

Well I hope that’s a joke because Alberta is a province and Norway is a country. Big difference.

[ZenOps]

US pulls out of Afghanistan. This is actually a very bad sign for oil. The whole reason you have a perpetual war is to keep a foothold on the oil. If the US no longer intends or sees value in keeping oil, that would be one reason to leave.

[ExtraSlow]

Always like looking at the futures curve for oil contracts. Daily prices make good headlines, bit the futures curve is where smart decisions are made on long-term projects. Pretty significant that 36 month contracts are above $65/bb for WTi these days. That's sufficient for nearly any kind of shale oil drilling to make IRR hurdle rates. The better areas or operators make an absolute killing above $65, and even the shittier operators do okay above that.

Expect that curve to flatten a little over the next 1-3 months, and the c-suite and BOD teams to start to become believers in increased spending, which could spark a micro-mini boom in activity in some areas. Going to be very heard to find field hands this winter, it's already started in some areas. Guys like @SKR might even come back, that'd be neat.

[suntan]

All - yes all - of our service company clients are going fucking balls to the walls right now.

[ExtraSlow]

I have been working on a couple small projects with service companies that would normally be considered competitors to my employer. Right now, there are shortages of tools and manpower for even simple jobs. Service rigs are a nightmare to obtain, and people are turning down work and hiking prices. Also a few new small service companies starting up trying to take advantage. I think they are insane, but hey, it could work.

[suntan]

Li Ka-Shing: "Aw fuck."

[killramos]

If by “increased spending” you mean “return earnings to shareholders” I might start agreeing with you.

No one has any desire to be ahead of the curve on investing in growth. Which is where the double meat subs are for services.

[schurchill39]

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I have been working on a couple small projects with service companies that would normally be considered competitors to my employer. Right now, there are shortages of tools and manpower for even simple jobs. Service rigs are a nightmare to obtain, and people are turning down work and hiking prices. Also a few new small service companies starting up trying to take advantage. I think they are insane, but hey, it could work.

I've heard of several cases where work has been RFP'ed and MSAs put in place where the service company has gone back to the operator and said "sorry, we're not working for that price anymore. Here is the updated pricing or you are welcome to go back to RFP". Its a super greasy move and prices have usually been 2-2.5X the original agreed upon price but with the difficulty in getting services it puts guys in a tough spot. The pendulum goes both ways though and operators did the same to service companies when prices were falling. To me, it just seems like a shitty way of going about things even for some of the grease balls running the sales departments at these places.

[suntan]

Can't be helped, there's no available labour or equipment out there.

They're begging people to come back.

[msommers]

A lot of oil workers are "fool me once..."

Then wages go through the roof, people bite the carrot, only to be tossed aside in a year or less. Sure you'll be able to find bodies for the right price, but everyone is going to have a steep learning curve when it comes to lacking overall experience. Sounds expense too.

From a personal standpoint, I was tempted to try and weasel my way back into the industry. But I know how it ends and it's bloody, and will stunt my overall career progression.

[SKR]

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Guys like @SKR might even come back, that'd be neat.

Hard, hard, hard no. Too much 6 months of red hot, then 18 months of ice cold and layoffs. Also, too many gel haired fucks trying to run shit from town, rather than letting the guy who they specifically hired to run it, run it.

[ExtraSlow]

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Hard, hard, hard no. Too much 6 months of red hot, then 18 months of ice cold and layoffs. Also, too many gel haired fucks trying to run shit from town, rather than letting the guy who they specifically hired to run it, run it.

I know those gel haired fucks.

[redline]

They re working green jobs … fuck dirty oil and gas …

We need a lock down to save the planet … ��

[schurchill39]

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I know those gel haired fucks.

Jokes on you, I don't have enough hair left to put gel in it!

[vengie]

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I've heard of several cases where work has been RFP'ed and MSAs put in place where the service company has gone back to the operator and said "sorry, we're not working for that price anymore. Here is the updated pricing or you are welcome to go back to RFP". Its a super greasy move and prices have usually been 2-2.5X the original agreed upon price but with the difficulty in getting services it puts guys in a tough spot. The pendulum goes both ways though and operators did the same to service companies when prices were falling. To me, it just seems like a shitty way of going about things even for some of the grease balls running the sales departments at these places.

This is unfortunately the way the entire industry has gone.
Mutually beneficial agreements no longer exist.