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Thread: $6.66/$4.44 barrel oil?

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Tc woukd gave to spend decades and hundreds of millions of dollars to sue the US government. They are smarter than that.
    They already filed a $15B NAFTA suit the last time the US rescinded the previously-granted permit, why wouldn't they do it again?

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    Biden won't back down on this. It is a Democrat mission to block KXL. Remember that the Montana judge was appointed by Obama.

  3. #183
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    Big time inventory draws this week.

    Price responding.

    5 million crude draw, and 4.5million gas draw. But total reserves up 5 million. So a transfer or product perhaps.

    Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending May 15, 2020
    U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 12.9 million barrels per day during the week ending May 15, 2020 which was 0.5 million barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 69.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 7.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.
    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.2 million barrels per day last week, down by 194,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.4 million barrels per day, 24.6% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 526,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 322,000 barrels per day.
    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 526.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 10% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels last week and are about 10% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week and are about 19% above the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week and are about 14% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 5.0 million barrels last week.
    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 16.1 million barrels a day, down by 19.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 6.7 million barrels a day, down by 29.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.4 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 13.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 66.9%
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Screenshot_20200520-090440.jpg
    Still a "missing" seven million barrels this week. That's larger than the inventory draw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BerserkerCatSplat View Post
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    They already filed a $15B NAFTA suit the last time the US rescinded the previously-granted permit, why wouldn't they do it again?
    I'm not sure if we have the same trade protections under the new agreement.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gestalt View Post
    Im the one with a learning disability....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    Yup. Trump's a fucking prick and I hope he doesn't win. This is a shit move by Biden.

    No matter what happens in the USA, we lose.

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    If crude stays under $20, I can imagine that China will take the opportunity to burn some to create more solar panels. Seriously, if it was a carbon "price" 1:1 ratio at $35 it just plain makes sense to convert excess unstorable oil into an alternate commodity that can also create energy, but does not need to be stored in an abandoned salt mine. There is no way to store it, so you might as well burn it and melt some million tons of silicon ingots for storage or immediate use.

    The world produces 700 million tons of steel every year. To melt sand into silicon could be scaled up to 1 million tons per year with one factory. 1 million tons of silicon shaved into the wafer thin slices of a solar panel - well, the math is stagerring how quickly oil could be supplanted. I can imagine that it would be more expensive to create the aluminum frame of a solar panel, than the active energy creating components of the panel itself.

    I propose that China create the worlds first SSIR. Several hundred thousand tons of monocrystalline silicon ingots as a Strategic Silicon Ingot Reserve, which will be of much greater importance and value than the US SPR, which is basically just pumping it out of the ground to put it back into the ground (not even in finished form, like gasoline) which is just plain retarded if you really look at it from a mile high.

    Yup, this glut may ultimately be the knell for oil from this day forward. Prepare the cute kitten videos, its just about done. Negative interest rates, negative oil price.

    https://www.alibaba.com/product-deta...038842187.html Give me my smexy shiny ingots, 10 tons at a time.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 05-21-2020 at 07:19 AM.
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    Last edited by msommers; 05-21-2020 at 11:46 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BerserkerCatSplat View Post
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    They already filed a $15B NAFTA suit the last time the US rescinded the previously-granted permit, why wouldn't they do it again?
    Because the mechanism by which NAFTA allowed them to file such a suit was removed in the USMCA.

    Quote Originally Posted by dirtsniffer View Post
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    I'm not sure if we have the same trade protections under the new agreement.
    Turns out not wanting to be sued by foreign interests was one of the few things that could get bipartisan support in the U.S.
    Last edited by kertejud2; 05-21-2020 at 11:27 PM.

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    Canada is always last, why couldn't we be 2nd at least? USCAM

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    Tablets should have three speakers.

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    Greta vs Sonya

    Greta Thunberg Mocks Alberta Minister Who Said COVID-19 Is a ‘Great Time’ For Pipelines
    https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/b...rce=reddit.com

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    Greta vs Sonya

    Greta Thunberg Mocks Alberta Minister Who Said COVID-19 Is a ‘Great Time’ For Pipelines
    https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/b...rce=reddit.com
    Old people and botox. Gross.

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    Fun little dashboard to play with oil production projections. ShaleProfile is probably my favourite source of data, although it's always got a long lag.
    https://shaleprofile.com/us-tight-oil-gas-projection/
    Texas is the most important state, and it's instructive to look at that state by itself.
    Shaleprofile Texas from 2020-06-01.jpg

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    Clipped the end dates to get a better zoom.
    What this shows to me is that between 200 and 250 rigs in Texas keeps production pretty flat. I personally think USA onshore needs under 500 rigs total to prevent a supply glut.
    Shaleprofile Texas from 2020-06-01 V2.jpg

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    I guess my philosophy isn't compelling to "the market". Oil goes up every day it seems.
    I feel like this could prolong the death of a few shitcos and that's bad for everyone else.

    Oil below $30 would help separate wheat from chaff.

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    SPR is now jamming in the oil, which took longer than I anticipated. half a million barrels a day. Still an unaccounted for million barrels a day in the "adjustment" line. Maybe that really is field storage, but that can't last, can it?

    USA production down every week, but not as much as I predicted it would have to be to prevent catastrophic storage overflow. Market doesn't seem worried. I can't argue with that.
    EIA weekly petroleum 2020-06-03.PNG
    https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

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    Pre-covid WCS was hovering around 35-40$ in early 2020 and now it's sitting at 33$. Not great but surprised its rebounded so quickly. With alot of the OPEC+ cuts being through 2021/2022 do you think we'll see a further increase in our oil price as the US continues its reopening and brings demand back up? Or would it likely take until flights are happening moreso and consuming a lot more travel fuel.
    Nolan

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    My view, which is continually show to be wrong, is that supply reduction will have more impact on oil price than any improvement in demand. USA supply under 10 million barrels a day, plus OPEC+ etc cuts, for the remainder of 2020 would help a lot.

    I'm terrified, from a pricing standpoint, that USA will ramp up again and increase production back to 12 million or higher. I mean, that's going to be good for my work, but not (I claim) good for the health of the industry longer term.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    Pre-covid WCS was hovering around 35-40$ in early 2020 and now it's sitting at 33$. Not great but surprised its rebounded so quickly. With alot of the OPEC+ cuts being through 2021/2022 do you think we'll see a further increase in our oil price as the US continues its reopening and brings demand back up? Or would it likely take until flights are happening moreso and consuming a lot more travel fuel.
    WCS at $33 with our dollar where it is - a lot of producers (majority) are hitting budget. I’m confident on that!

    I read two interesting articles recently

    1) Mark Little (suncor) sees a bitumen future in carbon fibre

    2) $35 WTI is creating shale drilling activity. $45 is the new break even (so say 35-40).

    Things adapt and evolve. If $50/bbl is the new $100, so be it. The corporations will adapt, and make $$!!

    Edit: forgot to add, also read that when the saudis caused the big crash pre-Covid in early March, they quietly bought almost a billion dollar of Suncor and CNRL.

    So who would we prefer to be owned by? The Middle East? Or the Far East? Writing may be on the wall here.
    Last edited by Darkane; 06-03-2020 at 10:26 AM.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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