$6.66/$4.44 barrel oil?

[ThePenIsMightier]

So, where did all the money go that the NDP provided "loan guarantees" on during the Made In Alberta initiative?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4988294

^Here was $440,000,000 from almost 2.5 years ago given to a previously bankrupt company to help them revitalize a partial upgrader project they abandoned in 2008!

Does anyone work at or near Shell Scotford? Is the former BA Energy site anything more than that snake-oil stick of a vessel on an otherwise essentially bare site? Are they bussing in thousands of workers and soon to be online producing? Already producing using "other methods that could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 16%"???

What a joke that that project received a loan guarantee!

[ExtraSlow]

He's a pretty biased guy with some pretty good points. Underinvestment will lead to price spikes. Not clear who benefits.
https://financialpost.com/commoditie...g-oil-to-us100

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Peak demand? More like a supply crisis propelling oil to US$100
OPEC will soon exhaust its spare capacity and U.S shale lacks the ability to significantly grow in the years ahead

The world stands on the cusp of an oil supply crisis. Years of insufficient investment in offshore mega-projects combined with the end of U.S. shale hyper growth and a recent shift by global supermajors to preferentially invest in alternative energy over traditional hydrocarbons have resulted in an oil industry that lacks the ability to meaningfully grow its production in the years ahead.

If you are picking winners and losers here, consumers will loose, but high oil prices are good for renewables, as it helps make the economic case for alternative energy sources. Existing oil producers will win, but I don't see massive new supply expansion plans in most areas. They'll bank the cash and invest it elsewhere. Even if we hit $100, nobody is building a new oilsands mine, for instance.

Middle East is interesting. They don't have as much spare capacity as they used to, but that's one part of the world where they can drill big wells relatively easily. The rumors I hear from my business contacts indicate that there are big plans in several countries over there.

Canada drilling will see a small uptick, but we are a natural gas basin predominantly, and remain pipeline constrained.

Ho hum.

[ExtraSlow]

More DUC talk.
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/chart-stuff

TLDR, completing the inventory of "useable DUC's" over the last 12 months has been the only thing keeping production up with such low drilling numbers, but DUC's are running out. That's an opinion that fits my narrative, but the observable facts haven't fit my narrative that well for a long time, so I don't know anymore. My predictions are looking dumber and dumber as the months go by.

[killramos]

Sorry. Is the implication that operators are mostly completing existing ducs?

Or drilling new ducs?

I don’t understand the commentary on the link.

[vengie]

What I got from it is it seems the DUC's can no longer keep up with decline curves of completed wells, thus reducing overall production from the states?

Correct me if I'm wrong ES.

[ExtraSlow]

I think he's saying that completing leftover ducs was a big thing. Not that they are drilling new ones.

[killramos]

So the takeaway is likely to be bullish on future drilling? Because they are “running out” of existing ducs and will need to fire rigs up in response?

[ZenOps]

Going to need much more carbon if 1,000 near billionaires want to take Bransons mach 2 spaceship to space.

[ZenOps]

So should I start up the $300 oil thread or what?

If a board made of glued together wood chips can hit a hundo, oil can at least hit $300.

[ExtraSlow]

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So the takeaway is likely to be bullish on future drilling? Because they are “running out” of existing ducs and will need to fire rigs up in response?

Bullish on oil price. Where's that 3x WTI ETF?

[killramos]

I don’t personally believe OPEC+ will allow price to continue to climb.

[ExtraSlow]

I'm bad at knowing things.

[nzwasp]

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I don’t personally believe OPEC+ will allow price to continue to climb.

Why wouldn’t they though? More money for their countries

[killramos]

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Why wouldn’t they though? More money for their countries

They have another reliable way to make more money for their countries.

Produce more oil.

[ExtraSlow]

The enemy of my ememy is my friend.
Now what are opec's enemies? US shale? Green economy? Alternative fuels and energy sources?

[killramos]

OPEC is OPEC’s most serious enemy

[ExtraSlow]

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OPEC is OPEC’s most serious enemy

I can relate

[ExtraSlow]

Just liked this:

https://www.oilystuffblog.com/news-stuff

[ZenOps]

Thing with a tripled in price barrel of oil is what does the consumer do? Buy the same, buy 3x less, or try to ditch oil entirely?

Ultimately high cost tends to push innovation in other areas. Hard to say how many actual dollars are left in oil.

[ExtraSlow]

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The world is set for one more oil boom. Canada should make the most of it

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/...e-the-most-of/

Opinion piece from some Ontario business school dude.