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Thread: $6.66/$4.44 barrel oil?

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    2) $35 WTI is creating shale drilling activity. $45 is the new break even (so say 35-40).

    Things adapt and evolve. If $50/bbl is the new $100, so be it. The corporations will adapt, and make $$!!
    I don't belive USA companies have gotten that much more efficient to have full-cycle profits at $45, although I think they'll drill even for half-cycle economics.

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    Recession is over, December WTI is over $40.
    Oil prices.jpg

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    WCS was trading 35-40$ from Oct-Feb (give or take) and now its at 34$ USD. I know production is down for a lot of companies but it does seem like things will bounce back quicker than expected if demand continues to pick up as more and more of north america reopens.
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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    WCS was trading 35-40$ from Oct-Feb (give or take) and now its at 34$ USD. I know production is down for a lot of companies but it does seem like things will bounce back quicker than expected if demand continues to pick up as more and more of north america reopens.
    When are those curtailments supposed to end?

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    EIA weekly report. US total production down to 11,100,000 bbl/d. SPR jammed in 2,219,000 barrels last week, significantly less than the week before. Still a big ~7 million barrels of "adjustment" which I guess is unreported field storage?
    EIA weekly petrolum report 2020-06-05.PNG

    I'm hearing rumours of rigs firing back up in Colorado, although it's from a guy who has every reason to be over-enthusiastic. I think companies want over $40 WTI for year-end 2020 and a clear path to $45+ in 2021. Prices not yet showing that.
    Oil prices 2020-06-10.jpg

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    I don't claim to know exactly what the "correct" price of oil is, but i do think it's substantially less than $40 for the remainder of 2020. today the market agrees.
    CME Oil Futures 2020-06-11.jpg

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    weely EIA report. USA domestic production down to 10,500,000 bbl/day. I think being under 10 million is a psychological signal to the markets, which may prop up prices, or prompt well re-starts, or both, for a while. It will be interesting to see how much of the natural decline can be offset by restarts once they start becoming widespread.
    EIA weekly petroleum 2020-06-12.PNG

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    weely EIA report. USA domestic production down to 10,500,000 bbl/day. I think being under 10 million is a psychological signal to the markets, which may prop up prices, or prompt well re-starts, or both, for a while. It will be interesting to see how much of the natural decline can be offset by restarts once they start becoming widespread.
    EIA weekly petroleum 2020-06-12.PNG
    Isn’t that a 600k drop W/W? Impressive.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Yes it is, that's what the -600 means, lol. I wish there was a clear way to tease out how much of that was shut-ins and how much was declines finally hitting. Shaleprofile will be interesting, but thier public data lags about 3 months, so maybe in September.

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    Well, we are over $40 for all the contracts for the next year. Good/bad/indifferent?
    CME Oil Futures 2020-06-19.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Well, we are over $40 for all the contracts for the next year. Good/bad/indifferent?
    CME Oil Futures 2020-06-19.jpg
    Will it stop the bleeding downtown?
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    Quote Originally Posted by benyl View Post
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    Will it stop the bleeding downtown?
    If you mean the job losses, then my response is a loud "Oh hell no." Calgary oil and gas employment will decline regardless of oil price for another couple years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    If you mean the job losses, then my response is a loud "Oh hell no." Calgary oil and gas employment will decline regardless of oil price for another couple years.
    Still projects side? Were we that fat from the good times?

    Read an article today - $190/bbl possible by 2025.

    Better preorder some triple meat party subs.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    DRW HTOD is worth a follow.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Still projects side? Were we that fat from the good times?
    well, it's less about us being "fat" previously, and the fact that we simply don't need to grow production the way we were before. and when I say "we", I mean all of north america's producers. It's an integrated market. Headcount in Denver/Houston/Calgary all works toward putting barels into the same tanks and refineries in the end.

    That and, I don't see and major Canadian heavy oil projects being built from scratch, potenitally ever. The amount of EPC work that was done in Calgary between 1990 and 2015 or so was massive. That's gone forever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    well, it's less about us being "fat" previously, and the fact that we simply don't need to grow production the way we were before. and when I say "we", I mean all of north america's producers. It's an integrated market. Headcount in Denver/Houston/Calgary all works toward putting barels into the same tanks and refineries in the end.

    That and, I don't see and major Canadian heavy oil projects being built from scratch, potenitally ever. The amount of EPC work that was done in Calgary between 1990 and 2015 or so was massive. That's gone forever.
    Yeah, you bet.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Better preorder some triple meat party subs.
    Meat prices spiked. Better lock in those prices.

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    Hedge those subs

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    Meat prices spiked. Better lock in those prices.
    50/50 plant based?
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    If you mean the job losses, then my response is a loud "Oh hell no." Calgary oil and gas employment will decline regardless of oil price for another couple years.
    Only a couple more years and then .... ?
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