$6.66/$4.44 barrel oil?

[Disoblige]

Hmmm...

It would be cool if you could buy beef and pork contracts. Like for example, pork rib contacts at $2.99/lb for 1000 lb worth with a expiry date. Payment all at once. You could sell that contract to someone else if you wish if prices go higher, or just buy at market price if prices go lower.

[ExtraSlow]

Well kiddies, some of the shut-ins have been brought back on. We are UP to an even 11 million barrels a day. This is the real test for prices:

Inventories are still building by half a million barrels a day, domestic supply is increasing and wow, WTI is going down. No surprises in any of this, but here it is.

[roopi]

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Hmmm...

It would be cool if you could buy beef and pork contracts. Like for example, pork rib contacts at $2.99/lb for 1000 lb worth with a expiry date. Payment all at once. You could sell that contract to someone else if you wish if prices go higher, or just buy at market price if prices go lower.

So cattle and pork futures?
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agr...lean-hogs.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agr...ve-cattle.html

[ExtraSlow]

For the folks who hate to read, these primary vision dudes do a good youtube series on oil price/production/storage. It's really long, which is annoying, but whatever.

[ExtraSlow]

Well, I've said before I don't know the "right" price of oil, but the price today ($38) at least makes some sense to me in the "at least it's below $40" sense. I remain extremely conflicted abotu oil prices. I think for the long term health of the north american industry, we really shouldnt' start up drilling with any volume in 2020. However, obviously, professionally, things go better for me when people drill new wells.

[SKR]

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However, obviously, professionally, things go better for me when people drill new wells.

Now you're starting to make some sense. All this "shouldn't start up drilling" talk is absurd. It's critically important that I have a well-paying job that allows me to waste money at the rate I have been for the last 15 years. Any deviance from that is unappealing to me. Financial restraint and responsibility is not something I'm interested in at all.

[killramos]

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Now you're starting to make some sense. All this "shouldn't start up drilling" talk is absurd. It's critically important that I have a well-paying job that allows me to waste money at the rate I have been for the last 15 years. Any deviance from that is unappealing to me. Financial restraint and responsibility is not something I'm interested in at all.

ES just hates capitalism

[SKR]

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ES just hates capitalism

Well I hope his radical ideas don't catch on.

[ExtraSlow]

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Well I hope his radical ideas don't catch on.

I'm trying to make you rich in 2022 not 2020 brother. Think long term.

EIA report shows flat production at 11,000,000 bbl/day Sometimes no change is more interesting than an increase or decrease. Does this fit that? Does this mean anything?

Stock draw too.

[sabad66]

I don't think we have a thread for Trans Mountain so posting this excellent news here:
https://calgaryherald.com/commoditie...-6e20591d6ef2/

OTTAWA — The Supreme Court of Canada will not hear a new appeal from British Columbia First Nations over the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

The court dismissed the appeal this morning from the Squamish Nation, Tsleil-Waututh Nation, the Ts’elxweyeqw Tribes and Coldwater Indian Band, effectively ending the years-long legal battle over the project.

I think that's it now? Are there any other (legal) ways for this to be blocked now?

[ExtraSlow]

Always ways to block.

[ExtraSlow]

Let's see how much curtailed production can come back in the next few weeks compared to declines:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN2412PS
Interesting to note the order that they Conoco chooses to restart. 1) Alaska, 2) Lower 48, 3) Canada Oilsands

[ExtraSlow]

Just a snapshot of one companies strategy and opinion. One of my favourite private equity backed USA operating companies. They are still running 1 drilling rig in Colorado, but they have shut down drilling entirely in the permian. They are not completing the wells that they drill, and have no plans to do so until Q4 at the earliest. They won't tell me their price threshold for restarting completions, but admit it is "much higher than current levels". I suspect they are waiting to see what production restart from competitors does to the price through the next couple of months. Or that's my guess.

[SkiBum5.0]

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Just a snapshot of one companies strategy and opinion. One of my favourite private equity backed USA operating companies. They are still running 1 drilling rig in Colorado, but they have shut down drilling entirely in the permian. They are not completing the wells that they drill, and have no plans to do so until Q4 at the earliest. They won't tell me their price threshold for restarting completions, but admit it is "much higher than current levels". I suspect they are waiting to see what production restart from competitors does to the price through the next couple of months. Or that's my guess.

Parsley or Extraction?

[ExtraSlow]

Neither, but similar.

[ExtraSlow]

Suspiciously flat USA production numbers was 11,000,000 bbl/day for weeks ending 06/19, 06/26, and same again for week ending 07/03.

I'm not smart enough to tell you what it means when the SPR is building stocks more slowly, or when commercial stocks seem to be building quicker, and there's s till a mysterious "adjustment" number that probably means something big. Really really interested to see which way this breaks. Do companies turning back on shut-in wells make supply go up, or do natural declines start to dominate? I think declines will win by Q4, but it would be very bullish for pricing if that became obvious earlier. Pricing is rangebound, and so not sending strong signals either way for companies to deviate from whatever status-quo has meant for them.

[ExtraSlow]

Had a chat with one of my Oklahoma customers today, and their quote was "we aren't starting any drilling rigs here in 2020, regardless of price. We will start thinking about early 2021, but it's too early to consider that."

Now that sounds like sensible and reasonable business strategy. Why rush back into a market that feels like it has more downside than upside?

[ExtraSlow]

Any oil bears, time to buy the shorts? OPEC is (probably) going to let the cuts taper off as scheduled, bringing ~2 million barrels back into the global market through August. USA market is at a tipping point, and could be pushed into retreat pretty easily by any strong downward pricing moves.

[ExtraSlow]

I don't bet on oil price with my own money. Just with my words. I have enough riding on that anyway.

[ExtraSlow]

the EIA weekly report is getting kind of boring. I mean, if numbers could ever be boring, which obviously they can't.
11 million barrels a day. steady, stable, boring.