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Thread: Do People Actually Believe The World No Longer Needs Oil?

  1. #121
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    Pretty hard to quantify the outcome of near pure anarchy and the collapse of society as we know it.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power_Of_Rotary View Post
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    I am using a very extreme case of Immediate loss of oil. My point is humans find ways to live and to adapt to the environment even if oil were completely depleted today. And I am asking you guys to elaborate why lots of deaths would happen and define "lots/enormous/etc". These words mean nothing without a quantifiable figure. What I can see is some third world countries are less effected given they are somewhat less reliant on technology in the first place. Lots of villages around the globe dont even have roads or clean water to start with. They still farm with traditional means without heavy machinery. Its first world cities that are very spoiled and will not be able to cope quickly with less luxuries and convenience. That said, third world countries are not "transitioning" into new renewable energy, they are merely surviving the changes.

    I said before, oil is still feasible and relevant today and for the next few decades (at least). Dont confuse my hypothetical scenario with bias to oil.
    If we did end using oil for energy, it will make oil price even more attractive for the other 50% to stay on and avoid the alternatives. Especially peak oil is no longer a thing.

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    Oh.. maybe I should ask a different question to weigh the significance of oil "need".

    Oil and the internet is very similar. It is great to have but it is not a basic human need (however, I would probably suicide without the internet). Which would be more impactful to the world, no oil or no internet?
    Originally posted by beyond_ban
    Yo Kanye, ima let you finish, but 50 Cent had the best concert cancellation of all time.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by Power_Of_Rotary View Post
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    I am using a very extreme case of Immediate loss of oil. My point is humans find ways to live and to adapt to the environment even if oil were completely depleted today. And I am asking you guys to elaborate why lots of deaths would happen and define "lots/enormous/etc". These words mean nothing without a quantifiable figure. What I can see is some third world countries are less effected given they are somewhat less reliant on technology in the first place. Lots of villages around the globe dont even have roads or clean water to start with. They still farm with traditional means without heavy machinery. Its first world cities that are very spoiled and will not be able to cope quickly with less luxuries and convenience. That said, third world countries are not "transitioning" into new renewable energy, they are merely surviving the changes.

    I said before, oil is still feasible and relevant today and for the next few decades (at least). Dont confuse my hypothetical scenario with bias to oil.
    Well we have given you examples of why a lot of people would die, you don't seem like you're accepting that reality.

    Of course humankind will find a way, we always do, it's just that there's millions(maybe billions) of people that won't be along for the ride. And life as we know it would not exist any longer. Without oil, we basically just exist to survive. Like you said, it's an extreme example, but that example nets extreme results.

    A more realistic question, is what adaptations can we make to decrease oil consumption? As I mentioned before, going nuclear on everything possible would be the step we need to take. And then we have to cross our fingers, hope and pray, that someone smart figures something out to replace oil before it runs out.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Power_Of_Rotary View Post
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    Oh.. maybe I should ask a different question to weigh the significance of oil "need".

    Oil and the internet is very similar. It is great to have but it is not a basic human need (however, I would probably suicide without the internet). Which would be more impactful to the world, no oil or no internet?
    Hands down, no question about it, losing oil would be more impactful than internet. not even a close comparison there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misterman View Post
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    Well we have given you examples of why a lot of people would die, you don't seem like you're accepting that reality.

    Of course humankind will find a way, we always do, it's just that there's millions(maybe billions) of people that won't be along for the ride. And life as we know it would not exist any longer. Without oil, we basically just exist to survive. Like you said, it's an extreme example, but that example nets extreme results.

    A more realistic question, is what adaptations can we make to decrease oil consumption? As I mentioned before, going nuclear on everything possible would be the step we need to take. And then we have to cross our fingers, hope and pray, that someone smart figures something out to replace oil before it runs out.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Hands down, no question about it, losing oil would be more impactful than internet. not even a close comparison there.
    Clearly, lives would be impacted and I am just trying to grasp magnitude of the impact. 1000 or 1billion people dying? Is it by direct impact or just population shrinkage (lower birthrates).

    Interesting view on oil vs internet, how come it isnt even a close comparison? Wouldnt most companies and jobs be lost without the internet? First world people with no manual labor knowledge can even cope with reverse digitalization?
    Originally posted by beyond_ban
    Yo Kanye, ima let you finish, but 50 Cent had the best concert cancellation of all time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power_Of_Rotary View Post
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    Clearly, lives would be impacted and I am just trying to grasp magnitude of the impact. 1000 or 1billion people dying? Is it by direct impact or just population shrinkage (lower birthrates). 19
    Pre oil world of 1918 flu infected 1/3 of the world's population and killed 10%

    Without plastics, N95, ventilators and other PPEs are gone. So applying the same stats, 280M would die today.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 07-02-2020 at 09:53 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xtrema View Post
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    1918 flu infected 1/3 of the world's population and killed 10%

    Without plastics, N95, ventilators and other PPEs are gone. So applying the same stats, 280M would die today.
    Based on that number, the impact is low. Considering the population has grown way more than 280M (4% of global population) since the technological advancements thanks to oil.

    For reference: oil started going mainstream since 1800s. The population at the time was 1 billion. Meaning our population growth since is 700%. Besides the virus, any other direct life/death impacts we can foresee?

    This does mean, majority of the world will carry on and find alternatives (better or worse) to live. Again, this is an IF all oil evaporated today scenario.
    Originally posted by beyond_ban
    Yo Kanye, ima let you finish, but 50 Cent had the best concert cancellation of all time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power_Of_Rotary View Post
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    Clearly, lives would be impacted and I am just trying to grasp magnitude of the impact. 1000 or 1billion people dying? Is it by direct impact or just population shrinkage (lower birthrates).

    Interesting view on oil vs internet, how come it isnt even a close comparison? Wouldnt most companies and jobs be lost without the internet? First world people with no manual labor knowledge can even cope with reverse digitalization?
    It still seems like you really don't have a grasp on how many things in our life are controlled by/or possible in part due to oil. If you lose internet, you're back to pre 1990 communication methods, it's not the end of the world. It's definitely harder to find information and file permits or applications, etc. But without oil you can no longer transport things across the ocean, hell you can't get things transported across the country. So if business with China disappears, we now have to live with what we can produce locally, which means like 1000% inflation. How many jobs that currently exist, could remain in existence without power? Then consider that 90% of the shit you use on a day to day basis is just gone. We could all go back to wearing leather shoes I suppose if anyone still knows how to make shoes.

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    I do believe there is a beyond member who knows how to make leather shoes/boots and in fact, I've purchased a few pairs of keather boots from his business in the past.

  10. #130
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    In my opinion the largest impact of the petroleum industry is the affordable inexpensive energy. We can replace nearly any feature of petroleum these days with some alternative, either an older or newer one. However they are in some way vastly more expensive.

    Right now if 50% of the cost of your delicious gala apple is energy for growing, processing and transporting, then without oil, that cost would be 5x or more.

    Same with everything made in China. The inexpensive transport is the foundation of global trade.

    If you want to learn to buy local, for truly everything, then I guess you'd have your chance. The thing is, the wealth of the modern world, and our standard of living is based on the fact that these "things" are relatively inexpensive to purchase. A toaster costs something like 1 hours wages. In a world without oil, that same toaster would cost several days wages. And the power to toast your morning bread might be an hours wages itself.
    Last edited by ExtraSlow; 07-02-2020 at 10:35 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misterman View Post
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    It still seems like you really don't have a grasp on how many things in our life are controlled by/or possible in part due to oil. If you lose internet, you're back to pre 1990 communication methods, it's not the end of the world. It's definitely harder to find information and file permits or applications, etc. But without oil you can no longer transport things across the ocean, hell you can't get things transported across the country. So if business with China disappears, we now have to live with what we can produce locally, which means like 1000% inflation. How many jobs that currently exist, could remain in existence without power? Then consider that 90% of the shit you use on a day to day basis is just gone. We could all go back to wearing leather shoes I suppose if anyone still knows how to make shoes.
    I think you are part of the first world problems demographics lol. I am still referring to severe impacts. Hell, if we stopped trade with China, we get less cheaper goodies. We can still survive. I already mentioned luxuries and wants will be diminished but basic human needs will still be feasible. God. Spoiled. Princesses. are dumb.ah.
    Originally posted by beyond_ban
    Yo Kanye, ima let you finish, but 50 Cent had the best concert cancellation of all time.

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    Living in a world without internet and oil lol oh hell no. Ppl dunno what they want and that’s why CHOP/CHAZ disbanded so fast lol
    max_boost is a name known to all

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power_Of_Rotary View Post
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    I think you are part of the first world problems demographics lol. I am still referring to severe impacts. Hell, if we stopped trade with China, we get less cheaper goodies. We can still survive. I already mentioned luxuries and wants will be diminished but basic human needs will still be feasible. God. Spoiled. Princesses. are dumb.ah.
    Whatever you say man. Brushing your teeth, now a first world luxury. lol If you don't think suddenly having to procure and grow your own food, 80% unemployment, mass inflation, etc are "severe impacts" then there definitely isn't any sense having this conversation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misterman View Post
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    Whatever you say man. Brushing your teeth, now a first world luxury. lol If you don't think suddenly having to procure and grow your own food, 80% unemployment, mass inflation, etc are "severe impacts" then there definitely isn't any sense having this conversation.
    The OP asked "do people actually believe the world no longer NEEDS oil?". Humans can still survive with basic human NEEDS. Obviously impacted and obviously for a long time. Severity is again subjective and we cannot quite quantify the true figure. Majority (96%+) of people will still be alive with a shittier lifestyle. This number should be higher if Covid19 was not around. Natural illnesses and diseases will still be the main cause of death. Without oil we may have less travels, work less or do manual labor, change of diet/food (less junk food), etc. Which all in turn leads to healthier lives. Some people will be forced to do more manual labor (exercise?). Maybe there is a silver lining to this hypothetical scenario......

    As for money, if 80% unemployment and locally grown food would not equate to inflation. If anything, this may stop inflation. Inflation is a whole other topic I do not want to get into right now lol.
    Originally posted by beyond_ban
    Yo Kanye, ima let you finish, but 50 Cent had the best concert cancellation of all time.

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    turns out eating is a need.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power_Of_Rotary View Post
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    The OP asked "do people actually believe the world no longer NEEDS oil?". Humans can still survive with basic human NEEDS. Obviously impacted and obviously for a long time. Severity is again subjective and we cannot quite quantify the true figure. Majority (96%+) of people will still be alive with a shittier lifestyle. This number should be higher if Covid19 was not around. Natural illnesses and diseases will still be the main cause of death. Without oil we may have less travels, work less or do manual labor, change of diet/food (less junk food), etc. Which all in turn leads to healthier lives. Some people will be forced to do more manual labor (exercise?). Maybe there is a silver lining to this hypothetical scenario......

    As for money, if 80% unemployment and locally grown food would not equate to inflation. If anything, this may stop inflation. Inflation is a whole other topic I do not want to get into right now lol.
    Are you a mod at r/Alberta?

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidI View Post
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    Are you a mod at r/Alberta?
    relax guys. I am all for O&G. Ever watched "what if" show? These are the type of things that could happen and im being unbiased about the outcome.
    Originally posted by beyond_ban
    Yo Kanye, ima let you finish, but 50 Cent had the best concert cancellation of all time.

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    To continue eating on earth, you need a way to convert sun into energy. If oil starts to become scarce, it simply means no more every weekend flights to Cabo and no carbon based flights to the moon. Arguably, oil is not whats important in a future situation - the ability to convert sunlight to a useable form (whether edible or electricity) is. Literally a Billion year long fusion generator that requires zero maintainance for as long as the sky is blue.

    Soak up the sun.
    Elon needs Nickel

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    BTW: By my estimation. Improving a PV solar cell 0.5% is more beneficial to humankind in the long run - than 1,000 different enhancements on a combustion engine to get it to be 0.5% more efficient.

    In 50 to 150 years from now - when no one has a combustion engine, history will be kind to solar.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 07-03-2020 at 04:50 AM.
    Elon needs Nickel

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    ^ It's going to be a long time and trillions of dollars in spending until mining, smelting, shipping/freight, farming, and other energy-intensive activities are feasible through solar/wind - not to mention the land-use to provide adequate levels of electricity to support such industries/practices.

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