Trudeau has to go?

[suntan]

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Can anyone with a more objective lens see what has changed to cause the Liberals to fall like this? To me, it's just another day. What key thing is suddenly making previous Liberal supporters go "alright, I've had enough of this clown" when they've been gobbling his wand for the last 8 years?
I don't see anything different. How do I pretend to be a retarded Laurentian so I can gain some insight into their views?

Inflation.

It's always about money.

We're not even at the nadir. Millions of mortgages coming up for renewal, for a lot of people this will add thousands of dollars to their payment.

[ExtraSlow]

Affordability is very important to voters. They don't like when they feel like politicians impact thier quality of life.

The carbon tax exemption thing was a bad look too. Made them look unprincipled on the one issue they may have had moral authority on.

[pheoxs]

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Can anyone with a more objective lens see what has changed to cause the Liberals to fall like this? To me, it's just another day. What key thing is suddenly making previous Liberal supporters go "alright, I've had enough of this clown" when they've been gobbling his wand for the last 8 years?
I don't see anything different. How do I pretend to be a retarded Laurentian so I can gain some insight into their views?

Affordability is a big one on people's mind right now. Real estate has been skyrocketing in Van/Tor for a decade and is also spreading elsewhere now too. People with good careers are being priced out of even basic accommodations in many cities. When you mix that with high levels of inflation causing basic necessities to also start creeping out of reach you'll end up with a lot of unhappy people.

I think a lot of people are wising up to the fact that the Liberals have spent and spent and spent while we've gotten basically nothing to show long term for it. We haven't improved any significant infrastructure, they haven't done anything to address the housing situation. Healthcare across all provinces is in shambles. The rampant rise in immigration is making lots of Canadians understand the effects of gentrification as they're being priced out of their own lives.

On a personal view it's really remarkable how terrible our country is being managed when you think about it in dollars. Federal interest payments was 20B in 2019, next year it's 45B, and in 2028 it'll be 60B. That's 40B a year wiped away that could be going to significant capital projects. The green line is 5B, the Coquihalla was only 400M (granted many decades ago), talk of highspeed rail between Banff or Edmonton would be 2-6B. Toronto - Montreal is 2-12B. We could be pouring funds into mega infrastructure improvements year over year to actually grow our country but we haven't. We spent so much and manage to do so little with it. It's truly remarkable.

[94boosted]

Does any of this really matter? The next election isn't scheduled until October 2025. By then the BoC will have cut rates a handful of times and the affordability crisis won't seem so bad anymore. Liberal supporters will have quickly forgotten, like they always seem to do, just how incompetent this government really is. He can continue being as tone deaf and out of touch with reality as he wants in 2024. There's no way, even Trudeau is dumb enough to call an early election when he and his shitty party are doing so poorly in the polls

[tirebob]

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Does any of this really matter? The next election isn't scheduled until October 2025. By then the BoC will have cut rates a handful of times and the affordability crisis won't seem so bad anymore. Liberal supporters will have quickly forgotten, like they always seem to do, just how incompetent this government really is. He can continue being as tone deaf and out of touch with reality as he wants in 2024. There's no way, even Trudeau is dumb enough to call an early election when he and his shitty party are doing so poorly in the polls

The only way I can see it happening is if the Libs keep sliding so much that the NDP decides they can take votes away from the Libs and have a shot at becoming the official opposition so they stop propping them up, but I still don't see that as having a good shot.

[msommers]

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Does any of this really matter? The next election isn't scheduled until October 2025. By then the BoC will have cut rates a handful of times and the affordability crisis won't seem so bad anymore. Liberal supporters will have quickly forgotten, like they always seem to do, just how incompetent this government really is. He can continue being as tone deaf and out of touch with reality as he wants in 2024. There's no way, even Trudeau is dumb enough to call an early election when he and his shitty party are doing so poorly in the polls

Sad but true.

Plenty of time for their new PR machine to spin how PP is the devil incarnate.

"Remember how Canada was a wasteland *cough* from our majority government *cough*, but the Liberals gave you all this money to make your lives seem better?! Something something about PP never having a real job"

"Oh ya totally, at least you taught Drama for a while! You guys really spun things around for Canada. Thanks Bruh!"

[pheoxs]

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The only way I can see it happening is if the Libs keep sliding so much that the NDP decides they can take votes away from the Libs and have a shot at becoming the official opposition so they stop propping them up, but I still don't see that as having a good shot.

I wish but sadly I think the NDP’s incompetence prevents that. Their party doesn’t have the financial assets to call an election. They barely paid off their debt ahead of the 2021 election and then basically had to finance the whole election campaign. The party is broke as shit and can’t afford to campaign right now. They’ll just be a liberal lapdog as long as they can. They really need to fire Singh.

[ExtraSlow]

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Does any of this really matter? The next election isn't scheduled until October 2025.

Very important point. NDP cannot afford an election, so they pretty much have no choice but to prop up the liberals. So early election seems unlikely. What this could do, back to the title of the thread, is encourage the liberal party into a change in leadership in 2024, and they can use that as a chance to adjust the messaging before the election.

Current projection is liberal party getting like 75 seats. I'd bet they can improve that over the next 23 months.

[suntan]

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Does any of this really matter? The next election isn't scheduled until October 2025. By then the BoC will have cut rates a handful of times and the affordability crisis won't seem so bad anymore. Liberal supporters will have quickly forgotten, like they always seem to do, just how incompetent this government really is. He can continue being as tone deaf and out of touch with reality as he wants in 2024. There's no way, even Trudeau is dumb enough to call an early election when he and his shitty party are doing so poorly in the polls

Inflation is not going away any time soon.

Just the notion of future lower inflation keeps inflation high.

Food inflation is still nuts. 5.8% last report.

[killramos]

Trudeau’s got some legendary strategy. Now if you vote conservative you hate Christmas!

https://x.com/trudeaus_ego/status/17...tkURJZQ2Wtc1cw

[ThePenIsMightier]

I like the mortgage theory.
Someone should study the numbers that have come due and are coming due along with %'s and find out what the tipping point is.

[suntan]

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I like the mortgage theory.
Someone should study the numbers that have come due and are coming due along with %'s and find out what the tipping point is.

I dunno, but I've seen some curiously priced houses for sale recently.

[max_boost]

Don’t be poor
Yet make things affordable
Don’t we have lots of land
Build build build

[94boosted]

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I like the mortgage theory.
Someone should study the numbers that have come due and are coming due along with %'s and find out what the tipping point is.

There is something like 70,000 mortgages being renewed every month and that number will grow to over 100,000 mortgages every month by 2025. Some of the people renewing are seeing a 45% increase in monthly payments.

"As you know there are a few million mortgages coming to term in the next 24 months. A third of them have variable rates as low as 1.2%. The rest are 2% and 3% five-year mortgages. All will be renewing (likely) in the 5-6% range. Maybe a bit more or less. But payments on average will increase about 45% – with a much bigger hit for the VRM folks.

“Peak Renewal Pain is coming,” says veteran mortgage broker and former CIBC executive Vince Gaetano. “The trend is not our friend.”

Indeed. Research done by the busy little beavers at WOWA.ca shows that every month until August of 2024 about 70,000 households will face renewal. Then it gets worse. From that point until the late summer of 2025, renewal numbers surge to an average of 105,000 monthly."

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2023/10/page/11/

[max_boost]

Oh man Garth turner been calling for boom bust forever

[suntan]

It's okay, the banks will work with customers.

[jutes]

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Trudeau’s got some legendary strategy. Now if you vote conservative you hate Christmas!

https://x.com/trudeaus_ego/status/17...tkURJZQ2Wtc1cw

I’d be embarrassed to stand and clap for that. The entirety of the LPC is mentally ill.

[msommers]

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There is something like 70,000 mortgages being renewed every month and that number will grow to over 100,000 mortgages every month by 2025. Some of the people renewing are seeing a 45% increase in monthly payments.

"As you know there are a few million mortgages coming to term in the next 24 months. A third of them have variable rates as low as 1.2%. The rest are 2% and 3% five-year mortgages. All will be renewing (likely) in the 5-6% range. Maybe a bit more or less. But payments on average will increase about 45% – with a much bigger hit for the VRM folks.

“Peak Renewal Pain is coming,” says veteran mortgage broker and former CIBC executive Vince Gaetano. “The trend is not our friend.”

Indeed. Research done by the busy little beavers at WOWA.ca shows that every month until August of 2024 about 70,000 households will face renewal. Then it gets worse. From that point until the late summer of 2025, renewal numbers surge to an average of 105,000 monthly."

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2023/10/page/11/

Sounds like time to start plunking more money into RBC stock

[suntan]

Too big to fail.

[Misterman]

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Can anyone with a more objective lens see what has changed to cause the Liberals to fall like this? To me, it's just another day. What key thing is suddenly making previous Liberal supporters go "alright, I've had enough of this clown" when they've been gobbling his wand for the last 8 years?
I don't see anything different. How do I pretend to be a retarded Laurentian so I can gain some insight into their views?

I don't think anyone was ever gobbling his wand. His first term he got voted in by the losers because he promised to legalize weed. After that it was minority government ever since. Based on voting numbers he is the least popular PM we've ever had. He has been been hanging on to power by a fine balance. Out of control inflation and housing affordability is just the straw that broke the camels back, the very few people that were supporting him in key regions, are flipping sides.