2023 Alberta Provincial Election MEGA THREAD

[ExtraSlow]

I have been getting great feedback on these MEGA THREADS so I knew just what topic all y'all would love to discuss. Alberta Provincial politics!

Predictions for the next election, which is supposed to happen before May 2023.
- Will Jason Kenney stay as leader of the Alberta Conservative party?
- Will a second credible conservative party re-emerge as a legitimate contender?
- Will the Alberta Liberal party ever recover?
- Will anyone campaign on a PST?
- Will party platforms and promises matter at all or will it go fully tribal?


Rampant speculation and wild theories encouraged.

[killramos]

Yes
No
No
No
Sure?

Kenney is mostly only unpopular with people who aren’t conservatives anyway, I think a lot of UCP voters are fairly leader agnostic but that’s nothing to challenge a leadership race over.

Most voters are stupid and vote for whichever name on the ballot they recognize anyway.

Personally I would love to see Kenney stop pandering to the other side of the aisle and really gut the public sector far more deeply than he has. But that’s just my opinion.

[lasimmon]

Yes
No
No
Not directly
Unsure.


Honestly, I would be pretty surprised if the UCP can turn it around and win again. The only people I hear that still would vote for them are some O&G guys I talk to downtown and even them some I know won't be voting for them. The UCP have basically been governing as if they will win not matter what, because they are doing well at pissing all sorts of groups off.

[dirtsniffer]

I'd consider voting for someone else, heck even notely maybe... But in no way could I ever vote NDP so it really doesn't matter.

[Xtrema]

Yes
No
No
May be
Probably not.


Our creditors wants PST. Reading between the lines, UCP will implement PST but Kenney said many times it'll have to be put to a vote.

I think a lot of UCP voters are mad at Kenney right now, former PC camp is mad about MLA non-essential holidays and former WR camp is mad about lockdowns. And that coal deal that got all the ranchers riled up which UCP backed out immediately because if Corb Lund is petitioning against you, you are losing rural votes. On top we just saw $5B evaporated into XL thanks to Kenney. So I don't foresee a quick turn of fortune to give UCP capitals to drop PST into the 2023 platform.

But we are broke AF.

[kertejud2]

- Will Jason Kenney stay as leader of the Alberta Conservative party?

The party has nobody else by design, so he'll have to.

- Will a second credible conservative party re-emerge as a legitimate contender?

The Wildrose Independence Party is already gaining steam as the UCP protest vote for rural Albertans. I wouldn't call it credible, but could be enough of a disruptor, along with the Alberta Party, that it changes the voting landcape (10% of disgruntled UCP voters voting WIP, 5% voting AP, 10% staying home) creates a big threat to UCP voter numbers.

- Will the Alberta Liberal party ever recover?

Were they ever really alive?

But no.

- Will anyone campaign on a PST?

No, because saying PST will make people angry. But everybody will campaign on something that could be construed as permission to implement a PST

- Will party platforms and promises matter at all or will it go fully tribal?

The parks boondoggle (we're going to see that word a lot, whether you like it or not) and coal licenses have been such an unmitigated disaster for the UCP (https://338canada.com/alberta/) that policy will matter. I think after voting for party over substance and seeing what's happened, more people will actually pay attention to policies than they ever had before.

[Brent.ff]

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UCP will implement PST but Kenney said many times it'll have to be put to a vote.

it's required to have a referendum to implement a PST in AB.. I dont think anyone is voter-suicide enough to run on one, even if we mega in debt.

- yes
- no
- no
- no
- fully tribal.

if the AB Party cant make up votes after the cluster that the UCP is going through now, i dunno how they ever will so we'll be fully entrenched with two parties.
Not sure the NDP can get past the people who have voted conservative their whole live without actually checking if their values match to the point of a majority. Unless UCP has a miracle 2022 following vaccines, i see them out.. or at least a minority.


I think if Kenney wasnt so scared of Nixon hopping over to Wildrose 2.0, he'd be booted from cabinet after the Parks boondoggle followed swiftly by Coal. Two major swings and misses in way too short of a time frame.

[Xtrema]

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it's required to have a referendum to implement a PST in AB.. I dont think anyone is voter-suicide enough to run on one, even if we mega in debt.

- yes
- no
- no
- no
- fully tribal.

if the AB Party cant make up votes after the cluster that the UCP is going through now, i dunno how they ever will so we'll be fully entrenched with two parties.
Not sure the NDP can get past the people who have voted conservative their whole live without actually checking if their values match to the point of a majority. Unless UCP has a miracle 2022 following vaccines, i see them out.. or at least a minority

All NDP need is for a faction of UCP/right to split votes. Kind of like how they got into power from "look into the mirror" and PC voters switches to WR.

I know COVID dominated the headline for most of the last year and I think JK did an ok job on this. What else can JK runs on in 2023 that has been positive since he got elected?

[asp integra]

A second conservative party will only split votes and the ndp will win again. It's stupid and just shooting yourself in the foot.

[killramos]

I’ve always wondered why a bunch of closet dippers don’t do that.

[dirtsniffer]

definitely won't be conservative vote splitting. Took the widlrose like 10 years to build up enough support to stick us with the accidental government

[Buster]

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- Will Jason Kenney stay as leader of the Alberta Conservative party?

The party has nobody else by design, so he'll have to.

- Will a second credible conservative party re-emerge as a legitimate contender?

The Wildrose Independence Party is already gaining steam as the UCP protest vote for rural Albertans. I wouldn't call it credible, but could be enough of a disruptor, along with the Alberta Party, that it changes the voting landcape (10% of disgruntled UCP voters voting WIP, 5% voting AP, 10% staying home) creates a big threat to UCP voter numbers.

- Will the Alberta Liberal party ever recover?

Were they ever really alive?

But no.

- Will anyone campaign on a PST?

No, because saying PST will make people angry. But everybody will campaign on something that could be construed as permission to implement a PST

- Will party platforms and promises matter at all or will it go fully tribal?

The parks boondoggle (we're going to see that word a lot, whether you like it or not) and coal licenses have been such an unmitigated disaster for the UCP (https://338canada.com/alberta/) that policy will matter. I think after voting for party over substance and seeing what's happened, more people will actually pay attention to policies than they ever had before.

This sums things up nicely.

The state of talent participating in Canadian politics right now is dire. Alberta is no exception, and might be worse than most. Does the NDP have a non-embarrassing slate of MLA hopefuls this go around (I don't pay attention), or are they going to try to rely on a protest vote again?

[Pauly Boy]

- Will Jason Kenney stay as leader of the Alberta Conservative party?
Sadly, yes.

- Will a second credible conservative party re-emerge as a legitimate contender?
I can see Wildrose 2.0 gain steam. Maybe we can get some vote splitting again and get the NDP back, rofl.

- Will the Alberta Liberal party ever recover?
Who?

- Will anyone campaign on a PST?
Haha doubtful, but you never know. Taxes are generally considered political suicide. Someone might campaign on it carbon-style where you get rebates though.

- Will party platforms and promises matter at all or will it go fully tribal?
I would like to believe people will pay attention to the election platforms & in the UCP's case, performance over the past 4 years. But in the end, everyone will just tow their party lines and vote how they always do because ORANGE LADY BAD.

[Brent.ff]

A pretty solid opinion piece on the way the UCP have handled the province

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...oy5FtnvaBFbPEc

[vengie]

Opinion, from CBC, posted by @Brent.ff

Nah, I'll pass.

[Buster]

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A pretty solid opinion piece on the way the UCP have handled the province

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...oy5FtnvaBFbPEc

lol

[Xtrema]

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A pretty solid opinion piece on the way the UCP have handled the province

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...oy5FtnvaBFbPEc

You just quoted an opinion piece from CBC. Neg reps are coming.

[dirtsniffer]

In one breath saying she would leave covid out of the discussion and the next talk about how the economy is in the tank...
Ya nothing like the price of oil going fucking negative and a drastic shut down in economic output due to covid... nah that's the foolish UCP's fault.

That said, if there was an alternative to Kenney I'd probably vote for them.. Through a leadership review lol.. definitely not the NDP who cheered the demise of KXL.

[ExtraSlow]

She's not wrong. I mean, if we are comparing results achieved, it's coming up as something that rounds to zero.

All the imaginary alternate universes where someone else is in charge can't really be compared without getting far too tribal for my tastes.

[Brent.ff]

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In one breath saying she would leave covid out of the discussion and the next talk about how the economy is in the tank...
Ya nothing like the price of oil going fucking negative and a drastic shut down in economic output due to covid... nah that's the foolish UCP's fault.

I missed the part where Kenney created jobs pre-covid for those that weren't his cronies. Im so glad we're paying for Harper's kid to have a job as an 'advisor', or to be funding Allan's kid's law office..