Where Do You Go For Stock News/Analysis?

[themack89]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Read Chapter 20 of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow, and associated research showing that outperforming the market through stock picking is basically left to luck and chance.

Now that you've realized you're just gambling, if you still want to make picks, decide what gambling strategy you want to employ.

1. Long-term value investing? In that case, read Intelligent Investor, learn how to build DCF models and estimate Intrinsic Values, and be prepared to make reading 10Ks and understanding business fundamentals and accounting methods a full-time job.
2. Momentum bets? i.e. buying into what's popular and hoping to sell at a better price to the next guy? Start learning Option strategies, technical analysis (charting), and sentiment indicators and following the latest pump and dumps. Note, this strategy basically amounts to "buying meme stock".

If you don't feel like gambling as much but still want to try and outperform major indices (i.e. market beta) through empirically proven methods, start looking into Factor Investing. Basically, taking advantage of market factors that will increase the Sharpe Ratio of your portfolio (return/volatility). If you're into that for the long-game, check out Ben Felix's YouTube videos and the Rational Reminder podcasts and forums. As a bonus, he's Canadian so they consider the tax consequences of investing from Canada and home bias and such in developing their recommendations. Note, this strategy basically amounts to "just getting ETFs".

Mint post.

I'd like to add: learning to trade around the vol complex. There are some pretty gifted hedge fund managers who earn a living off predictable capital flows focused around options expirations--kind of like knowing what the biggest traders / dealers are doing because they must do them. Following Cem Karsan, Kris Sidial, and Benn Eifert as well as their surrounding community on FinTwit has taught me loads in this regard.

[suntan]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Today's Fed announcement should be interesting... although I don't expect much to change in their position until August. It would be nice if they'd at least start talking about reducing their purchases of MBS and such.

Another indicator of market manipulation... stocks have truly become the new household savings account.

Attachment 100092

People sure like to buy high and sell low.

[Manhattan]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Today's Fed announcement should be interesting... although I don't expect much to change in their position until August. It would be nice if they'd at least start talking about reducing their purchases of MBS and such.

Another indicator of market manipulation... stocks have truly become the new household savings account.

Attachment 100092

Seems like the fed has become much more politically influenced in recent years instead of being neutral. They're also more reactive rather than proactive so personally I don't think fed announcements mean a whole lot. They'll end up trying to stamp out inflation if it happens instead of trying to get ahead of the curve. Powell said in interviews they'll wait to see sustained inflation above 2% until they do something.

I think you might be a permabear in which case you might be familiar with Jeremy Grantham who's been calling for a bust for the past 10 years. Sooner or later he'll be right.

That's a scary looking chart at first glance but doesn't factor in near zero rates (nowhere else to be but stocks), increased wages & disposable income, and aging demographics. Not saying there's no bubble to be popped but its just inconclusive.