Canada Federal Election 2021

[ThePenIsMightier]

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Pretty dramatic drop for Justin. Lot of different reasons, but all moving things the same direction.
Attachment 101420

"Somewhere between 123 and 173 for the Liberals and 25-52 for the NDP"? They can be accurate within 40-100%!?!

A Millennial with crayons could create these predictions and graphs. Oh wait - that's what this is!

Let me try:
"I, The Great TPiM, hereby declare that tomorrow's weather high temp will be somewhere between 15° and 30°. All will bow to me when this turns out to be 'accurate' and I will publish my future predictions in the nation's broadcast centre (for a modest stipend)!"

[killramos]

The width just indicates uncertainty in the model.

Pretty much anything can happen right now, aside from a CPC majority that is lol

[ExtraSlow]

@ThePenIsMightier , so that isn't anyones prediction or the result of a single poll. It's a way to show the range or results likely based on a large number of polls.

The wide bands of likely results is the way they show how much uncertainty there is based on the fact that polls rarely agree exactly, and many don't even use the same methods.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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@ThePenIsMightier , so that isn't anyones prediction or the result of a single poll. It's a way to show the range or results likely based on a large number of polls.

The wide bands of likely results is the way they show how much uncertainty there is based on the fact that polls rarely agree exactly, and many don't even use the same methods.

Ok, so I'm not too far off. My argument is that with a range that large, the results are statistically insignificant. When the error bars exceed the measured value, then by definition, the value you've obtained is not valid.

It's interesting to notice somewhat of a trend, but to call it "news" seems irresponsible.
*Not saying you are irresponsible.

[ExtraSlow]

Well, what I find interesting is how it changes over time. They uidate it basically daily during the campaign.

Agree looking at it once is pretty useless. Although there's other visualizations that make it look more certain.

[ExtraSlow]

There's probably a better way to explain all of this.

[vengie]

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There's probably a better way to explain all of this.

[SportEL]

Turdeau gets called out for the Tyrant he is

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[ExtraSlow]

Buddy sent me a video of some kid swearing at Justin. Kid and my buddy seemed pretty impressed. I don't know, would be nice to keep political discussion polite at least.

[dirtsniffer]

[ExtraSlow]

Not sure what is up with 338 , but I can't get it to load for me.

[killramos]

Their website has been screwed up for a few weeks. Hit or miss if it works.

Wonder if it’s too much traffic?

[ExtraSlow]

Could be. If I get a slow day at work I'd like to dig into the methodology a bit. But that'll take a lot more time than my normal shitposting.

[Turkey99]

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As someone hoping to vote from overseas for anyone but Liberals, I'd be surprised if I receive a ballot and can submit it in time for it to be counted given the snap announcement... So there's that.

When I lived in Houston I was told to take it/mail it to the consulate as soon as possible and they would get it there in time.

[dirtsniffer]

mobile version of 338 seems to be working better than the desktop version

[killramos]

See I found it completely unusable on mobile. It’s just very variable right now ( I have a feeling a few of their charts have a memory leak or something )

[JRSC00LUDE]

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( I have a feeling a few of their charts have a memory leak or something )

You'll be saying that about the voters come Trujority time.

[davidI]

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When I lived in Houston I was told to take it/mail it to the consulate as soon as possible and they would get it there in time.

Thanks for the suggestion. When I receive the instructions I'll consider that option... I'm not paying $60 to courier it myself. Given my last address was in Alberta having a Liberal elected in my former riding probably isn't a huge concern.

[zechs]

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Buddy sent me a video of some kid swearing at Justin. Kid and my buddy seemed pretty impressed. I don't know, would be nice to keep political discussion polite at least.

Ah yes, keep discussion polite with the person who has shown you no politeness and actively seeks to ruin your livelihood.

[heavyD]

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I’m convince these models are manipulated to show CPC leading to light a fire and ensure all the liberal supporters in Ontario and Quebec to come out the ballots in full force. I hope nobody is getting overly excited as the Liberals will win the election. They may have squandered their opportunity for a majority but Ontario and Quebec will vote them back in. It’s what makes Canada Canada.