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Thread: Oil Price MEGA THREAD - Yeah baby it's MEGA

  1. #121
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    I'm a big fan of everything the biden administration has been doing with the SPR. Really super. A+ grade.

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    Those who like to talk about the permian, some discussion of what's going on with the private companies there.
    https://www.oilystuffblog.com/news-stuff
    Now the "why" is disputed, but the "what" is not. Private drillers are slowing down, and they fed a fair bit of the recent growth in that basin. Consolidation is going to continue, capital discipline will continue, and at some point, it will be come obvious how correct MS is when he says the best locations have all been drilled. Tier 2 locations decline harder, and cost more to complete. Problem is it only becomes obvious in the rearview mirror, about 6-12 months after the wells have been drilled, as the public production data makes it all obvious.

    When the permian can't grow production, that's going to be a huge psychological tipping point. Biden better fill the SPR before that happens...

  3. #123
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    MS = Mr suntan yes.

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    Once SPR outflows stop, it’s better for Canada. The US refiners will buy more Canadian Crude which means smaller WTI/WCS differentials.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Those who like to talk about the permian, some discussion of what's going on with the private companies there.
    https://www.oilystuffblog.com/news-stuff
    Now the "why" is disputed, but the "what" is not. Private drillers are slowing down, and they fed a fair bit of the recent growth in that basin. Consolidation is going to continue, capital discipline will continue, and at some point, it will be come obvious how correct MS is when he says the best locations have all been drilled. Tier 2 locations decline harder, and cost more to complete. Problem is it only becomes obvious in the rearview mirror, about 6-12 months after the wells have been drilled, as the public production data makes it all obvious.

    When the permian can't grow production, that's going to be a huge psychological tipping point. Biden better fill the SPR before that happens...
    That probably won't happen till after the midterms, can't go into midterms with oil above $100. Better load up on your O&G companies now.

  6. #126
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    Accurate

  7. #127
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    Further discussion this weekend with oil people has convinced me that we are going to see some big prices by year-end.
    Probably for all energy commodities, but if I was looking for an investment I'd likely want oil over canandian natural gas for any short or medium term thesis.

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    I took a heloc and bought HOU.

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    That seems reasonable.

  10. #130
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    Stonks to the moon!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Further discussion this weekend with oil people has convinced me that we are going to see some big prices by year-end.
    Probably for all energy commodities, but if I was looking for an investment I'd likely want oil over canandian natural gas for any short or medium term thesis.
    What was said that convinced you we are going to the moon?

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    Nah I think prices coming down. That war coming to an end.
    Originally posted by rage2
    Shit, there's only 49 users here, I doubt we'll even break 100
    I am user #49

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    I hope you are right from a humanitarian perspective, but that may not fix the supply constraints worldwide. Even if Russia is under zero sanctions, they have spent a period of time without western companies investing in drilling and maintenance in their projects. Many of those companies will not be able to come back quickly, or at all, so there won't be capital to invest. I think Russia's export capacity will take many years to return to what it was prior to the war with Ukraine.

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    Let’s put it this way. If people are paying 120k for a Hyundai.

    What does that tell you about consumer demand for transportation fuel?

    Hint: Supply is not going up.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

  15. #135
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    Yeah the other side of that is demand for sure. I know the news outlets talk about demand destruction but I think that's a total red herring. Demand isn't going down is in any meaningful global way for liquid fuels.

    So, my thesis on price is this: Demand Flat or up. Supply flat or down. Price cannot go down, probably goes up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by max_boost View Post
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    Nah I think prices coming down. That war coming to an end.
    @89coupe is waiting for those 2020 prices still. SU to $5.

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    Prices are likely coming down because the USD is going up due to the rate hikes.

    Demand is dropping, because people have to pay for oil in USD. GBP is near par with the USD. CAD is now $0.72 USD and will likely drop into the 60s before the end of the year. We were near 80cents at the start of this year.

    Can't wait to hear the crying south of the border when exports drop. Looks like food cost is going up even more due to exchange rates which means higher rates here... viscous cycle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr2mike View Post
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    @89coupe is waiting for those 2020 prices still. SU to $5.
    Fingers crossed

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    It’ll happen probably around 2035
    Originally posted by rage2
    Shit, there's only 49 users here, I doubt we'll even break 100
    I am user #49

  20. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by max_boost View Post
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    It’ll happen probably around 2035
    Wanna bet a lunch?

    Watch this, yeh it’s a TikTok video, but he’s spot on.

    https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMF869uKB/

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