Aston Martin DB12

[ganesh]

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This is awkward…

Should I get the Popcorn ?

[killramos]

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Should I get the Popcorn ?

I don’t think SSO is that kind of guy

[davidI]

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This is awkward…

Are you Karen?

If so, why the hate for AM and why do you have such a shitty dictionary?

[arcticcat522]

@SSO is Karen

[davidI]

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@SSO is Karen

Oops. I would have been more polite in my response had I known it was a Beyonder but my comment regarding blatant bias and a shitty dictionary stand.

[Buster]

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Karen is so biased it hurts. I wonder if he had a lemon AM or dated a sales chick who cheated on him or something?

I mean, he chose the wrong definition of fulsome to try and make some sort of weird point...

Seems weird to focus on DBX sales if the DB12 has a full order book out 3 quarters but anyway, I haven't invested in AM myself yet so I'll need to dig into the financials myself rather than rely on some butthurt dude's opinion.

@SSO knows what he is talking about. The fulsome thing was him being cheeky. Otherwise the rest of the analysis is solid and I don't see any bias or butthurt in there anywhere. If anything, I think he is genuinely pulling for Mclaren and AM and similar manufacturers to do well.

[davidI]

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The fulsome thing was him being cheeky.

Really? Weird humour.

[Buster]

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Really? Weird humour.

I'm saying that it is not something to be focused on either way.

[SSO]

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@SSO is Karen

Yes, Karen is my wife and karenable is our website. Karenable a terms our kids came up with years ago.

[SSO]

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Karen is so biased it hurts. I wonder if he had a lemon AM or dated a sales chick who cheated on him or something?

I mean, he chose the wrong definition of fulsome to try and make some sort of weird point...

Seems weird to focus on DBX sales if the DB12 has a full order book out 3 quarters but anyway, I haven't invested in AM myself yet so I'll need to dig into the financials myself rather than rely on some butthurt dude's opinion.

Speaking as the "butthurt dude", please do dig into the numbers and cross reference with managements statements (See: https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/i...-presentations. After that then suggest you decide if I am biased or not.

- - - Updated - - -

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@SSO knows what he is talking about. The fulsome thing was him being cheeky. Otherwise the rest of the analysis is solid and I don't see any bias or butthurt in there anywhere. If anything, I think he is genuinely pulling for Mclaren and AM and similar manufacturers to do well.

Much appreciated.

[davidI]

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Speaking as the "butthurt dude", please do dig into the numbers and cross reference with managements statements (See: https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/i...-presentations. After that then suggest you decide if I am biased or not.

Good to know that the blog was named after your wife - I had assumed it was named after the modern usage of "karen" and thus you took an overly negative view and were writing about everything in a "butthurt" manner intentionally. After reading more of the blog and understanding the name meaning, you do have some good content on there and it seems this post was an exception in its exceptionally negative outlook.

Had I known you were a Beyonder I would have been more polite in my comment but I still do think your AM post is a bit bizarre.

That said, I'm by no means bullish on the stock and agree that it's disingenuous to call the turnaround "complete" but the way you presented the negative to contradict the highlights seems misrepresentative. You appear to have cherry picked every negative number you could find rather than take a holistic view. Why choose to highlight the Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022 for comparison where it's negative rather than the YTD 2023 vs YTD 2022 which is positive?

From your blog:

• Vehicle wholesales down in 3 of the 4 regions in Q3 2023 vs. Q2 2023
• Free Cash Flow in Q3 2023 of -£78.5 mil.
• Cash end Q3 2023 down by £228 mil. (vs. Q3 2022) to £543.8 mil. which includes £311 mil. in proceeds from 2023 share sales (ex the share sales cash would be £232.8 mil.).
• Net Debt of £750 mil. ex a non cash FX revaluation it is flat vs. year end 2022
• There will be another equity raise in 1st half 2024
• DBX wholesales were down 7% in Q3 2023

Wholesales were up 8% YTD vs 2022 and 4% Q3 2023 vs Q2 2023. Only APAC was down YTD which is expected given what's going on in the Chinese economy. Not positive for AM but hardly their fault, either. Your concerns about dealer inventory may be correct but it also makes sense that old models are harder to move when there's a new, more desirable, DB12 now available and dealer inventories have been a mess ever since COVID. I just looked at a few dealer websites in the US and they're showing inventories of <20 new vehicles. I haven't followed their historical inventories so not sure how this compares to usual but it doesn't seem excessive relative to other luxury brands (Bentley Long Island has double the new vehicle inventory of AM Long Island, for example).

FCF is down yes, but less so than in 2022. They're still targeting positive FCF in 2024 and I'd imagine a lot of the spending has been attributable to the DB12 and future model development which, as this thread suggests, looks to be a winner. I'd expect cash to go down when ramping up for the DB12. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't as far as investing in model changes goes if simply looking at present cash balances. The fact they investment looks to have paid off in a sexy desirable car is a net positive to me.

DBX wholesales are up 23% in 2023 (despite your Q3 comparable).

Debt is ~£80 mil. lower than this time last year, though the equity raise obviously helped that. Their primary ownership base (Stroll, Shu Fu Li, Saudi PIF, Mercedes) can only be seen as a positive, especially if they need a fulsome (/ˈfʊls(ə)m/ of large size or quantity; generous or abundant) capital raise.

Like I said, I'm not yet bullish on the stock or auto stocks in general but the model releases look good, the publicity they're getting from F1 and soon WEC seem positive, and metrics are improving. Biggest headwinds are probably the overall economy and pushback on the rich overtly flashing wealth in many countries. Tough to know if the UK's economic issues will end up being a net positive or net negative for them.

Only time will tell whether they can continue on an uptrend long enough to call it a turnaround or not - especially with economic forces potentially turning sharply against them.

Hope you keep writing on your blog but preferably with a little less bias than Aaron Wherry.

[SSO]

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Good to know that the blog was named after your wife - I had assumed it was named after the modern usage of "karen" and thus you took an overly negative view and were writing about everything in a "butthurt" manner intentionally. After reading more of the blog and understanding the name meaning, you do have some good content on there and it seems this post was an exception in its exceptionally negative outlook.
.

Here's one that just a bit more positive: https://karenable.com/ferrari-q32023/

[SSO]

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@SSO knows what he is talking about. The fulsome thing was him being cheeky. Otherwise the rest of the analysis is solid and I don't see any bias or butthurt in there anywhere. If anything, I think he is genuinely pulling for Mclaren and AM and similar manufacturers to do well.

Thanks. Just did the analysis of Aston Martin's 2023 results: https://karenable.com/astonmartins-fy-2023/ DB12 start up has been a bit of a mess and DBX sales were down 50% in Q4.