WWBD for Mortgage: 2023 Q4 edition

[Disoblige]

Under 5 would be good. Hopefully by May we see this.

[Kloubek]

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I think there are many potentially pending conflicts/wars on the horizon that deserve consideration when guessing the medium term economic outlooks.
I totally agree with you on a pending recession, but... if the global superpowers keep pumping billions of dollars into these proxy wars in Ukraine, Israel and soon-to-be Taiwan, that might certainly stave off recession.

This. The world and country are in a state of flux. When interest rates rose, they did so really quickly. Naturally, they drop much slower - but I could see it going either way.

[Xtrema]

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Under 5 would be good. Hopefully by May we see this.

Didn't inflation number did not look good from Dec?

[pheoxs]

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Didn't inflation number did not look good from Dec?

It wasn't great but also feels like people overreacted. Last Dec we had -0.6% monthly inflation, this year we had -0.3%. So prices still dropped they just didn't drop as much as last year which most people expected.

Nearly all of the inflation last year was Jan-May (2.5%) while the last 7 months only amounted to 0.9%. So we'll see quickly in the next couple months as those higher months fall off.

[Tik-Tok]

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Best rate we got back from bank was 5.35% for 5-year fixed. Was definitely thinking we'd get closer to 5% given what rates I showed them last week in our appt (4.89%).

My bank called last week for early renewal and offered the same number. I said "No, it's too early and it looks like rates might come down a little more". The guy didn't push AT ALL, just said "Ok", and that didn't leave me feeling great. If he thought rates were going down more he would have pushed a little harder, but if they thought rates are going up...

BoC interest rate announcement tomorrow though, so we'll see.

[ExtraSlow]

That first call guy has no authority to do anything. Also, call your broker to at least price-check your bank.

[Tik-Tok]

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That first call guy has no authority to do anything. Also, call your broker to at least price-check your bank.

Oh always. Not calling around is foolhardy.

[ercchry]

Why does the renewals guy care what rates are doing? His commission is most likely based on how profitable the spread is between current “floor” or cost of funds and the rate you accept. Probably some sort of performance bonus on his overall success ratio too. They also usually have some discretion in the form of how many bps they can discount, they would also fully decide if it was worthwhile to escalate to management for a further discount.