Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[pheoxs]

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UK tried the herd immunity thing. Sweden just moved some patients into an old folks home...they cray.

Some doctors have said that if you are intubated, it's like 50/50 that you live or die. It ain't fun.

0.5% is still a very low estimate. Lowest we have seen is 1%.

If we want to know what happens when there are no restrictions, look at Spain (restrictions started very late), Brazil, Equador. Follow up on Indonesia, Pakistan, India in a week or two.

If we had 100x the hospital beds, ICU beds, staff, and ventilators the it'd be fine to just let it blast through the population. But we don't, as soon as it picks up you end up with a situation where hospitals are overloaded and they have to start prioritizing patients and rationing ppe.

[The_Rural_Juror]

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Fun theoretical-maybe-fact: you might be better off getting the covid today then in a couple weeks, because the local health care system is not busy, but we'll prepared.

Only works if being infected confers some long term benefit reducing your likelihood of getting it again or reducing it's severity the second time.

I would be tempted if that central nervous system invasion wasn't discovered. Then again. I am a straight C- student, loud and proud.

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If we had 100x the hospital beds, ICU beds, staff, and ventilators the it'd be fine to just let it blast through the population. But we don't, as soon as it picks up you end up with a situation where hospitals are overloaded and they have to start prioritizing patients and rationing ppe.

I still wouldn't be comfortable with the vast majority of population being infected for the pure reason that we still don't know much about the long term effects of this disease.

Hospitalizations also cost taxpayers money yo. People are already complaining about having to buy school supplies to home school their kids.

[pheoxs]

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I would be tempted if that central nervous system invasion wasn't discovered. Then again. I am a straight C- student, loud and proud.

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I still wouldn't be comfortable with the vast majority of population being infected for the pure reason that we still don't know much about the long term effects of this disease.

Very true. Some articles (though not necessarily peer reviewed/detailed) do show long term respiratory effects in those recovered that got hit hard by it. Might make people more susceptible to the next virus that comes around in a decade or two.

[The_Rural_Juror]

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Very true. Some articles (though not necessarily peer reviewed/detailed) do show long term respiratory effects in those recovered that got hit hard by it. Might make people more susceptible to the next virus that comes around in a decade or two.

No need for peer review when CT scans and autopsies show lesions and scar tissue development in the lungs. I can dig up some research that estimated around 20-30% lung capacity loss even after recovery.

[dirtsniffer]

How is india not falling apart by now

[ExtraSlow]

But didn't we all agree earlier that like 80% of the population WOULD be getting the virus at some point? IF that's legit, and IF the local heath care system is currently highly prepared but mostly not busy, and IF you believe your household is at a higher risk of contracting all types of illnesses due to demographics (filthy children), than 100% serious, aren't your better off getting it now?

Not that I'm doing anything to increase my risk, I'm still distancing/isolating or whatever the hell we call it where we don't go anywhere. Just having a theoretical discussion and hoping to understand the situation better.

[The_Rural_Juror]

Everyone else can be in the 80%. I did my part getting flu shots every year when y'all bitches who are afraid of a weeny needle back out.

My family is hanging out until they get reliable treatment or this thing mutates itself away.

[flipstah]

You the man @The_Rural_Juror

That is all.

[Xtrema]

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How is india not falling apart by now

They are still fighting H1N1 from 2015.

They also spend the least in health care.

Life is cheap there.

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But didn't we all agree earlier that like 80% of the population WOULD be getting the virus at some point? IF that's legit, and IF the local heath care system is currently highly prepared but mostly not busy, and IF you believe your household is at a higher risk of contracting all types of illnesses due to demographics (filthy children), than 100% serious, aren't your better off getting it now?

I think that was some Netherland politician pitched early on. But death rate isn't 0 for less at risk class. And the most important part is nobody know what kind of permanent damage you survive with. Some say reduce lung capacity etc.

If some 30yr old fat but otherwise healthy guy can die, I got as much chance as he does

[ThePenIsMightier]

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But didn't we all agree earlier that like 80% of the population WOULD be getting the virus at some point? IF that's legit, and IF the local heath care system is currently highly prepared but mostly not busy, and IF you believe your household is at a higher risk of contracting all types of illnesses due to demographics (filthy children), than 100% serious, aren't your better off getting it now?

Not that I'm doing anything to increase my risk, I'm still distancing/isolating or whatever the hell we call it where we don't go anywhere. Just having a theoretical discussion and hoping to understand the situation better.

You're not wrong...


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As long as you and none of your family are part of that group where it decides to kill you even though you're reasonably healthy...
What are the acceptable odds - for your life?
Eat better than 70/30 I hope. 90/10???
98/2??! I'd take a 2/98 on a few hundred bucks without sweating too much... Maybe a grand?
But my life is going to need some better odds!
Just me. Just sayin

[The_Rural_Juror]

Summary from JRE with Dr Peter Hotez.

https://podcastnotes.org/joe-rogan-e...r-peter-hotez/

He is a double doctor (MD and PhD), or as I like to call it double d, so you know he would have been accepted into Westmount unlike yours truly.

Basically this is affecting younger people. Ebola vaccine took 5 years. Don't bank on unproven treatments just yet. Don't smoke, drink. Stay healthy. Worst is yet to come. Possible peak in May and bottoming out in June. 10% mortality rate in Spain. 5% in New Orleans.

[OTown]

A pattern I'm seeing is that countries/cultures that are very 'close contact' (italians, french, spanish) seem to get way more cases than others. Look at Quebec for example compared to the rest of Canada. The greeting with kisses etc seems to be pretty common in those countries/areas. New York for example has a large amount of Italian-Americans who follow in those traditions

[ExtraSlow]

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As long as you and none of your family are part of that group where it decides to kill you even though you're reasonably healthy...
What are the acceptable odds - for your life?
Eat better than 70/30 I hope. 90/10???
98/2??! I'd take a 2/98 on a few hundred bucks without sweating too much... Maybe a grand?
But my life is going to need some better odds!
Just me. Just sayin

Maybe I'm just feeling more fatalistic about this than most because I know how many colds etc my kids brought home in "normal" times, so when we go back to not social distancing, I'm assuming my family will get this virus eventually. I guess there's a chance we've have better treatments or a vaccine before that. I'm not about to have a coronaparty or anything guys, don't freak out.

[ExtraSlow]

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A pattern I'm seeing is that countries/cultures that are very 'close contact' (italians, french, spanish) seem to get way more cases than others. Look at Quebec for example compared to the rest of Canada. The greeting with kisses etc seems to be pretty common in those countries/areas. New York for example has a large amount of Italian-Americans who follow in those traditions

I don't think that's correct. Trajectories in these countries all seem to be just less than the "doubling every three days" line pretty closely. Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Germany all shown. (From CBC interactive)

[ZenOps]

There are even reports of some deterioration of the lining of the heart and liver. The lung damage is of course first, if you happen to have complications in heart of liver - it can show up as it is "exiting" your system hitting the bloodstream later. So far just rumored, but something to be wary of if you can mitigate some complications.

I need my brain, its got all the best conspiracy theories.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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Maybe I'm just feeling more fatalistic about this than most because I know how many colds etc my kids brought home in "normal" times, so when we go back to not social distancing, I'm assuming my family will get this virus eventually. I guess there's a chance we've have better treatments or a vaccine before that. I'm not about to have a coronaparty or anything guys, don't freak out.

Oh, I know you're not and I'm certainly not freaking out.
We cool. We cool.

[tirebob]

Before I even say what I am going to say, please read this bit first before losing your shit on me... I AM NOT ARgUING FOR NO COVID PROTECTION MEASURERS!!!

Okay, now that is out of the way... All this talk of the numbers of death etc got me thinking of what things that we as humans accept on a daily basis that kills us off as a species in great numbers but do not cause to send the world into an economic spiral. Seeing the post in the mask thread about someone terrified about the virus so much they pretty much were in full hazmat attire when going out to buy their cigarettes made me want to start there. Apparently the WHO states that there are over 8,000,000 deaths worldwide every year directly related to smoking. Why does the world not lose it’s shit and do something extreme about this if it is truly concerned with the human life aspect? Now many people will say that is different than this pandemic because they are only doing it to themselves, but they also say that 1,200,000 of those smoking related deaths are from second hand smoke. So if non-smokers can be killed by smokers in such vast and regular numbers, why is the government not going full lockdown trying to figure this out? I mean they are absolutely trying to get these numbers down slowly and surely with education and conversation, but they don’t seem to be losing their shit like they are with the pandemic.
This makes me want to ask why? Is it because the government can tax the shit out of cigarette smokers but haven’t figured out a way to make money on people sick with covid? Is it because they are just blind to parallels? Is it a master global world domination strategy? (Please laugh... That was intentional tin foil hat fun!) Seriously though, I am sitting here wondering what makes this form of human destruction so much more important than other forms of human destruction? We all have to admit there are many, many things out there that we humans accept as acceptable risk that still kills in numbers and percentages close to or greater than what we are seeing right now. Is it as simple as the fear and idea of the lack of personal control over as virus or the indiscriminate way it chooses its victims?

Please answer if you are interested in this as a theoretical discussion because it is just where my mind went this morning thinking about all this but it was not meant as an attack on anyone’s fear of what is going down with all this.

[Xtrema]

Smoking death is by choice. COVID death is akin to death by mandatory 2nd hand smoke. Also smoking death comes slowly and won't overwhelm health systems. I think we are lucky we didn't turn into NY or Milan so far. Doctors are wrecked in those cities.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/2/21...ostic-covid-19

Antibody test is approved. Early rumor is only 4-5% infected shows antibody. Hence reports of positive test soon after recovery. This will prove it once and for all.

If antibody is short lived, the herd immunity theory is out.

This will become seasonal/forever.

[jutes]

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Before I even say what I am going to say, please read this bit first before losing your shit on me... I AM NOT ARgUING FOR NO COVID PROTECTION MEASURERS!!!

Okay, now that is out of the way... All this talk of the numbers of death etc got me thinking of what things that we as humans accept on a daily basis that kills us off as a species in great numbers but do not cause to send the world into an economic spiral. Seeing the post in the mask thread about someone terrified about the virus so much they pretty much were in full hazmat attire when going out to buy their cigarettes made me want to start there. Apparently the WHO states that there are over 8,000,000 deaths worldwide every year directly related to smoking. Why does the world not lose it’s shit and do something extreme about this if it is truly concerned with the human life aspect? Now many people will say that is different than this pandemic because they are only doing it to themselves, but they also say that 1,200,000 of those smoking related deaths are from second hand smoke. So if non-smokers can be killed by smokers in such vast and regular numbers, why is the government not going full lockdown trying to figure this out? I mean they are absolutely trying to get these numbers down slowly and surely with education and conversation, but they don’t seem to be losing their shit like they are with the pandemic.
This makes me want to ask why? Is it because the government can tax the shit out of cigarette smokers but haven’t figured out a way to make money on people sick with covid? Is it because they are just blind to parallels? Is it a master global world domination strategy? (Please laugh... That was intentional tin foil hat fun!) Seriously though, I am sitting here wondering what makes this form of human destruction so much more important than other forms of human destruction? We all have to admit there are many, many things out there that we humans accept as acceptable risk that still kills in numbers and percentages close to or greater than what we are seeing right now. Is it as simple as the fear and idea of the lack of personal control over as virus or the indiscriminate way it chooses its victims?

Please answer if you are interested in this as a theoretical discussion because it is just where my mind went this morning thinking about all this but it was not meant as an attack on anyone’s fear of what is going down with all this.

The China Flu does two things that seems to trigger people/governments that smoking does not. It kills very quickly and it can overwhelm hospitals. I don't know why we can't set-up a massive China flu ICU zone in each major city where the people are taken out of our hospitals for mass-infected care. Or do the opposite, identify certain hospitals as Rona' care centers only.

We STILL have daily flights coming in from China and other parts of the world, limiting them to paper Canadians and telling them to 'pretty please with sugar on top' self-quarantine. This is all just a lazy bullshit approach and come mid-summer we will still be in this mess.

[JfuckinC]

Dallas, Chicago, Seattle, Minneapolis and Amsterdam is all I see? Yesterday today and tomorrow.. are they not posting other international flights so people don’t get pissed?

Edit: I guess YVR has one from Beijing and one from Hong Kong today, easy enough for those people to just jump wherever.