Canadian Exchange Rate

[funkedelic]

So lately our exchange rate has been very similar to the U.S Dollar, and i have heard rumors that as the months progress,.. that our dollar should be almost even with the american dollar by the end of the year?

My last car was purchased in the states (Last November) and i just recently sold it. I am planing on buying an e46 m3 late december/early january, and importing it into Canada. If i were to buy the car from the states, i would be saving thousands compared to buying in Canada, even with paying 6% duty and 6% tax and driving it or getting it shipped to the boarder.

Anyone know what the dollar is expected to look like at the end of the year, would it be better to just buy now then risk waiting for the rates at the end of the year?

Thanks

[Douche]

I can't see the dollar being even to the US dollar. That would hurt the Canadian economy, as your plan to purchase your car is a perfect example. It won't happen in my opinion.

[funkedelic]

perfect example of what?.. what won't happen? im confused

[Fcuk]

I also heard this was going to happen early 2008. not sure if it's true but the way the numbers look it might happen.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by funkedelic
perfect example of what?.. what won't happen? im confused

Instead of buying things in Canada people will buy them in the states thus hurting the Canadian economy

[Celica TVS3]

I'm not going to try and predict the CDN/US forex rate but you may want to hold off a bit. I think that the as a result of the subprime issues in the states and the resulting tightening of lending policies will put downward pressure on luxury used auto prices in the United States.

I suspect that used car dealers have been offloading luxury cars (M3, 911...) to people that normally wouldn't be able to afford the cars but are able to though higher risk lenders offering low rates or through home equity lines of credit. However, the cheap and easy money is currently drying up as lenders are more caution with there loans. As a result the current customer base will not be able to finance these cars. I suspect this will lead dealerships to drop prices to get their inventory off their lots.

Just my 2cents.

[adamc]

Slightly off your original question, but we need the new m3 to hit the streets as well, then hopefully people will be offloading the current generation in droves.

[funkedelic]

haha maybe if i could afford a new m3

[kaput]

.

[2EFNFAST]

Smart money is it being 1-1 shortly, baring any major events.

Originally posted by kaput
Why not buy like $20k USD now just in case. If we break even by the end of the year it will slightly reduce your savings but if it gets worse then your increasing your losses.

Hedge with future contracts if your plan is to hedge; not with cash

[kaput]

.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by 2EFNFAST
Smart money is it being 1-1 shortly, baring any major events.

Well, the subprime shit storm hit our dollar pretty hard but it seems to bounce back. So I don't know if there'll be another major event to knock the dollar down.

[483hp]

The market is in a see-saw. Nobody really has a good handle on it right now. We were expecting parity around year end....until the sub prime mess exploded. Now the outlook is the other way around.

I book forwards all the time so I get daily commentary on the direction of the USD/CAD from a number of securities houses.

Here is an exerpt of today's commentary from TD.
--
The Canadian dollar has been one of the stronger performers overnight on M&A news that US Steel has reached an agreement to take over Canada's Stelco for US$1.16bn, and that Rio Tinto received US anti-trust approval for its $38.1bn purchase of Canada's Alcan.

The market continues to be driven by speculation that the US Fed will cut interest rates three times by June 2008, and at least once by the BoC by the end of the 2007. The question however is how realistic are these expectations. The US Fed has reiterated several times over the past week that interest rate cuts will be determined by the needs of the real economy, not the need to bail out over zealous financial speculators. As for the BoC, inflation remains over the Bank's 2% target suggesting that they will remain on hold rather than cut.

This week is full of data and speeches to keep the market busy and volatile starting with BoC Deputy Governor Duguay's speech tonight (last official communiqué before the Sept. 5 rate decision), and ending on Friday with US Fed Governor Bernanke's comments on Friday. Our bias remains that we have seen a medium-term top in the Canadian dollar, and suggest USD buyers take advantage of current levels should interest rate expectations above prove unfounded.

[2EFNFAST]

Originally posted by Xtrema


Well, the subprime shit storm hit our dollar pretty hard but it seems to bounce back. So I don't know if there'll be another major event to knock the dollar down.

?

Doesn't look hard hit to me

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert

[Canmorite]

What hit out dollar is the BoC hinting they won't raise interest rates again, due to the subprime mess.

[ashee]

When I went to Montana last weekend I bought for 1.06 and some places were accepting Canadian at par.

[Gorilla]

Originally posted by Douche
I can't see the dollar being even to the US dollar. That would hurt the Canadian economy, as your plan to purchase your car is a perfect example. It won't happen in my opinion.

Its at 99c right now, still think it wont get to par?

[Phlav]

any speculations on how high the canadian dollar will go as compared to the US?

[Gorilla]

Where is the best place to exchange CDN for the American Green Back? Is it worth going down to Montana and just exchanging it there?

Bank?
Exchanges?
FOREX?
Banks in America?

[The Cosworth]

Originally posted by Phlav
any speculations on how high the canadian dollar will go as compared to the US?

I bet 1.25 then something major will happen. Some major economic shift, not really sure what though

Probably US collaps