Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Disoblige]

Let gold consolidate for a day or so before moving higher. I will be adding/averaging up my positions in JNUG during this period

Likely Friday afternoon entry or probably sometimes next week after Sept 11th.

[Disoblige]

Well, that was a short consolidation period... Gold 1349 spike!

[SilverRex]

already have 1 small position in UGAZ under 12, adding another position here with stop. if natgas breakout was real, it needs to rally from here

[SilverRex]

gold

well as posted earlier this week, gold has finally got to the 1350 area. I fully expect this to be a short term top. while dollar's sloping neckline is near 90, if there is one quick panic drop to retest that area, gold may give us a false breakout above 1350.

I have exited my leverage position to look for a better entry. if gold does make a push above 1350, depending where the miners are, I may reduce some core positions. over all not going to make the same mistake I did in early 2016 when I completely sold all my shares only to see gold/miners continue to rally hard for another 2+ months

[SilverRex]

mux (mux.to)

switching to mux USA simply it has more liquidity and the chart is easier to see.

mux.(mux.to)

I am pretty sure wave (C) bottom is in, a beautiful 5 waves off the low. sure it may be in an extended 3rd wave or 5th wave. Either count looks bullish to me. If gold does pull back from current level while the US dollar makes a strong rally just as everyone has given up. this may give mux.the wave 2 pull back then the next move up should be dandy

[SilverRex]

fcx

has copper topped and in a correction? I think so. but looking at fcx, it appears it is flagging. we may have an extended 3rd wave which means fcx can still breakout of this flag and make one more higher high above 15.70. The only alt count would be wave (i)(ii) is actually a truncated 5th wave bottom. if this is the case then we would see fcx possible back filling the gap near 13 in the coming weeks in the orange count.

[SilverRex]

Meg.to

I already have position in bte and will diversify my energy holdings trying a position here in Meg.to, if we have a 1-2, 1-2 setup off the low, this sub wave 2 should end around 4.79. the alt count in orange would imply we are part of a larger degree corrective pattern targeting down to the low 4s which only means a better buying opportunity imo

[SilverRex]

gold

so far gold did make a push above 1350 and as suspected, came crashing down. this could be a false breakout now triggering a daily cycle pull back with a chance to back test 1300 again. However following some other EW counters, the more bullish implication still pegs gold having the ability to push all the way towards the 1380 zone. Which means any pull back now could be shallow. Personally I will only get back into miners if gdx can back test the 24 area. So no harm in either direction where gold will go.

copper

looks like copper has finally made a good drop which could be just the initial leg down. I have sold fcx in the 15s, and will wait for re-entry in the 13s

natgas

natgas couldnt rebound and now looks like it wants to retest or break below the 2.86 area. I will hold onto my position a tag longer with stops under 2.75

[SilverRex]

fcx

here is an updated look at fcx big picture count. a very solid 1-2, 1-2 setup. Currently in an micro wave 4 of 5 of (i). very possible we should see a break above 15.70 to end the initial leg up before a more lengthy correction. wave (ii) to (iii) will be the one you want to be in.

[SilverRex]

gdx

big picture count on gdx. with the way gold is moving and closing strongly above key resistance area. the momentum is extremely bullish with possible big upside move (aka POR point of recognition) is coming. this will happen when gold or miner moves in such a big way that will surprise everyone and that is when the general public begins to realize the recent moves are for real.

because miner has been in correction for quite some time, the various 1-2, 1-2 setups will create multiple sub waves after sub waves. But the green count should remain the outlook as long as gdx does not break below 23.67. If it does it will be an early warning sign that something is wrong. And final bearish confirmation if price breaks under 21 would open up the very strong possibility of testing and breaking below the 2016 December low under 18.58. The orange count will be the bearish alt count. again the way things are shaping, my feeling as well as many EW counter is that gold/miners are in an early stage of a major up cycle shall price prove it wrong otherwise.

[SilverRex]

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gdx

countwise I think we are coming up to a sub micro 5th wave finish. yes it can still make a higher high but I am going to take my profit on Jnug after 20%+ run up. Sold 24.955. I will wait for a wave sub iv pull back that should be able to back test the previous trendline breakout as well as revisiting the previous wave 4 low. Since it looks like this wave 3 is extended, we should have multiple wave iv making it a bit choppy.

well reposting a previous chart. we finally saw gold pull back the way it should after producing a false breakout above 1350. I am waiting for gdx to see if it can drop into the low 24s so I can re-enter Jnug.

[SilverRex]

increasing my position size on USA.to during this pull back

[SilverRex]

bte.to

possible 1-2, 1-2 setup and backtesting

[SilverRex]

with gold coming down. if a daily cycle top has formed just like the previous reversal pattern (circled in red) then price should eventually break the red rising trendline for a sub wave 2 correction landing some where between 1260-1298

to confirm this, gold needs to break below 1324 and invalidate the current count to the upside. of course, assuming the US dollar fails to break above 92.11 (which is my land in the sand before believing a short term bottom has formed) any further new lows on the greenback would again push gold to further highs with the next target in the 1370-1380 range. If this happens it just means the next backtest will fall into the 1280-1313 range simply the blue box just moves higher.

[SilverRex]

scaling back into fcx if this is a sub 4 of 5 correction

natgas looking good again

[SilverRex]

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usas (usa.to)

stepping back, the chart looks fantastic with a huge ihns pattern at play. A breakout above this neckline would put down a price target into the 8s. I want to see if it can produce a breakout above 4.50 on volume, then a backtest before launch.

USAS backtest sucessful. looking for it to push higher

[SilverRex]

fcx

count remains valid. so far price has reached low enough to suggest a possible wave (iv) bottom. with wave 4 we should see one more wave higher than 15.70 in the coming weeks. I have scaled in one position at 14.25, since price can often retrace the prior wave iv low at 13.82, I will open another position if price does produce one more drop.

[SilverRex]

gold/miner correcting as expected.

natgas looking good

bte/meg looking good

fcx making a final move under 13.83 imo, might add another position if it can break below this

[SilverRex]

gdx

my current count on gdx. the line in the sand for me is 23.68, amazingly the 61% low lands right at 23.68 for the wave (iii) rally. hence until this breaks to the downside, I will remain in the camp this move down is corrective and looking for a wave (iv) low. it could be a sharp move or could grind out for another week.

[SilverRex]

gold vs Japanese yen ratio

this is another chart I have been paying attention too of late.

ever since gold topped in 2011 and began a 4 year correction. this pair has been pretty much in sync ever since. the moment gold out performs the Yen is when gold begins a new bull cycle. clearly we have some bullish momentum, I see the pair at least testing the upper wedge neckline which will then cause a pause for a good correction. I think this may entail that gold can still surprise which would line up well for the current count in miners taking it up for wave 5 topping. imo