Official Short-term Investments Thread

[ickyflex]

Does anyone own HIVE?

[Manhattan]

What's going on with Westjet? Record Q3 profit and down 5% today.

[SilverRex]

oil

looks like oil is dragging up the producers, it may have prematurely ended any correction in both bte/meg and now looking pretty bullish.

PONY

so far we got our reversal off 2.68, now it needs to make new high and turn 2.83 into a major support otherwise a lower low count remains on the table.

gold/silver

what a strong move for silver today. while I am still waiting for low 1200 gold to be 'the' bottom. no one can really tell if if metals is ready to make a major move to the upside and surprise everyone. after all as the US dollar continue to gain strength, gold has been struggling to break a new low. Could this be a divergence signaling a bullish reversal? I would love to get back on leverage if I see 1200-1220 gold, but already have enough invested and my focus is in silver mining producers. I will take a big move now over a better entry considering I am already fully invested.

[SilverRex]

silver

as mention, I am heavily invested in silver miners. with the impulsive jump to silver today I cant help but wonder if this is a bullish implication. considering the US dollar has been strong making higher highs yet gold remains unable to break below oct 6 which is a divergence imo.

so looking at silver, if the bottom is in and silver is now ready to make some big moves, then the green count is what I will see in the coming weeks. orange remains the alt count suggesting gold down to the 1220 area remains on the table. fun times ahead

[zhao]

There is another stock i'm looking at.

CJ.Tsx

I'd sum the company up as basically a small cap cenovus that didn't do a retarded deal 6 months ago and hasn't recovered yet from $4x oil. I see the company having the potential to hit 6-7 within the next 6 months+.

What I like about this company is they actually have a pretty crazy dividend right now and analysts seem to think that dividend is sustainable with oil above $50.


I haven't bought yet, but I would today if I had more than peanuts available for funds, and I probably will buy this within the next week or 2. Hopefully it stagnates or falls before than but i'm figuring its going to continue to go up for awhile.

[zhao]

my take on Pony:

aeco is up over 2 now, which is why pony spiked today IMO. I would say there is a good chance we have seen this stock bottom out.

if we see aeco hit 2.50+ i think we'll see some true magic happen with this stock.

I have some regrets not adding more when it fell to 2.6s, and this is probably the turning point for pony tracking upwards...... but pony could be pony and plummet again hard for no damn reason like it has before. I'll probably liquidate some stocks in the next week if other things go good, and if pony goes down in that time i'll probably double down again. if it goes up i'll probably add a small amount and go big into CJ.

[civicHB]

Anyone following under armour UA? their results have been horrible and the stock took a major hit in Q1 and now in Q3.
Are they are better buy at the current valuation or still room to drop?

[SilverRex]

PONY

not looking too bad, however only 3 waves up off the low. need to see a 5th wave go higher over 3.09 before I am confident in the bottom being in.

[SilverRex]

PONY

chart wise, if the bottom is in, we need to see a 5th wave above 3.08 and preferably break the 3.21 then I will be more confident the low in 2.5s was the bottom. failure to do this with a downside breach below 2.83 would jeopardize the current rally being just another larger degree counter wave iv follow by another 5 waves to a lower low.

[SilverRex]

gold big picture

just wanted to compare gold during the last major breakout back in 2009. I see similarities. a breakout of the multi month (then) and multi-year down trendline (now), follow by a back test. Ideally, would like to see gold back test this breakout trendline without breaking below 1200. And yes, price can fall below the breakout price as seen in 2009. And if this is a valid breakout pattern, price never revisited this. all the bearish outlook and negative sentiment regarding gold this year is required in order to setup the next major move.

As for the general stock market, it is in a melt up phase. you will know this when index doubles in less than 12 months once it begins to run away. Been preaching the melt up scenario since early 2016, the only question is how much and how soon. Any significant drop in the stock market at this juncture would be viewed as just another wave 2/4 correction follow by new highs.

[swak]

What do you guys think about the new MIND etf?

Artificial intelligence managing the portfolio. Could get huge. But not really interested in a long term hold in something like this either.

[zhao]

purely my view:

I'm not a huge fan of ETFs for myself. i view them as half way between a mutual fund and stocks, or a half measure. It's not exactly what i'd call diversifying and it's not exactly going to see huge growth either because you lump all the shit in with the good, and you only focus on one sector.

Take HMMJ for example; compare it to WEED, aph, or acb, and anyone buying HMMJ would have been better off just rolling the dice on any one of the big players in Canada.

acb was at 1.92, weed was at 6.80ish. they're at 3+ and 16+ respectively now, whereas HMMJ was at lowest 8.50 and at highest 10.50?

IMO if you want to go heavy in to one industry, you should probably research the heck out of that industry and pick 1-2 stocks in it.

Or if you want to diversify, go with a mutual fund.

[swak]

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purely my view:

I'm not a huge fan of ETFs for myself. i view them as half way between a mutual fund and stocks, or a half measure. It's not exactly what i'd call diversifying and it's not exactly going to see huge growth either because you lump all the shit in with the good, and you only focus on one sector.

Take HMMJ for example; compare it to WEED, aph, or acb, and anyone buying HMMJ would have been better off just rolling the dice on any one of the big players in Canada.

acb was at 1.92, weed was at 6.80ish. they're at 3+ and 16+ respectively now, whereas HMMJ was at lowest 8.50 and at highest 10.50?

IMO if you want to go heavy in to one industry, you should probably research the heck out of that industry and pick 1-2 stocks in it.

Or if you want to diversify, go with a mutual fund.

Very well worded. Good points, but while these smaller and I guess you could say more conservative ups and downs you mention would occur in an ETF... I honestly foresee MIND being set apart from the rest, and maximizing potentials in both way. Could revolutionize the industry... maybe not that far, but i think will make for a good etf. Just not willing to invest this early in it and holding money into something like this for a long term hold only to maybe see 2-3% growth. Seems silly. Might as well buy a mutual fund as you say.

EDIT:
Speaking of ETF's though, crosses my mind all the time and is probably a stupid move... But to take a $250,000 loan out and hold for 6mo. into BRK.A pay the interest and take the ~$8,000 profits (after a $10,000 gain or so).

[TomcoPDR]

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Anyone following under armour UA? their results have been horrible and the stock took a major hit in Q1 and now in Q3.
Are they are better buy at the current valuation or still room to drop?

Bought some UAA instead. Watching for over 1 year, notice on the down swing UAA and UA prices are closer; but man on some up swings the price gap is wider.

[max_boost]

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purely my view:

I'm not a huge fan of ETFs for myself. i view them as half way between a mutual fund and stocks, or a half measure. It's not exactly what i'd call diversifying and it's not exactly going to see huge growth either because you lump all the shit in with the good, and you only focus on one sector.

Take HMMJ for example; compare it to WEED, aph, or acb, and anyone buying HMMJ would have been better off just rolling the dice on any one of the big players in Canada.

acb was at 1.92, weed was at 6.80ish. they're at 3+ and 16+ respectively now, whereas HMMJ was at lowest 8.50 and at highest 10.50?

IMO if you want to go heavy in to one industry, you should probably research the heck out of that industry and pick 1-2 stocks in it.

Or if you want to diversify, go with a mutual fund.

I do ETFs because it just helps me sleep at night lol

I have HMMJ with ACB/APH/WEED and the individual stocks has exceeded the ETF for sure. The MJ part of my portfolio is about 20%, the other 20% in Bonds and 60% mixed up between the TSX (XIU), and America XQQ (Nasdaq), ZDJ (Dow), and XSP (SP500).

I'm hesitant in adding more positions to the ETFs because the Dow and TSX are both so high right now lol there is a small dividend so let it sit and collect the 3%. If things drop, buy more?

[zhao]

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Very well worded. Good points, but while these smaller and I guess you could say more conservative ups and downs you mention would occur in an ETF... I honestly foresee MIND being set apart from the rest, and maximizing potentials in both way. Could revolutionize the industry... maybe not that far, but i think will make for a good etf. Just not willing to invest this early in it and holding money into something like this for a long term hold only to maybe see 2-3% growth. Seems silly. Might as well buy a mutual fund as you say.

EDIT:
Speaking of ETF's though, crosses my mind all the time and is probably a stupid move... But to take a $250,000 loan out and hold for 6mo. into BRK.A pay the interest and take the ~$8,000 profits (after a $10,000 gain or so).

history may prove you right, but if I was investing with a loan (heloc I assume?) I'd be looking at something that I wouldn't cry if I had to hold long term and that could cover the interest. I'd be looking at dividend stocks, ones like CHR or CJ where they have quite good returns as well as good potential. Or ones like RSI or PPL which have rock solid sustainable dividends and stock prices that fluctuate only a little bit... and I'd be looking at buying these on a downturn. That way if anything happens with the market and the stock falls below my buy price, the dividend will cover the interest and probably still net me a 2% ROI.



But as Sam said, whatever makes you sleep at night is probably the correct investment. With BRK.A you have a company that has consistent growth..... but has a brilliant man at the helm that is 87. If he dies, and he will, expect confidence in the company to fall instantly. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night investing 250k into that company with a loan. Now, that doesn't mean the compnay wont be just as profitable or rebound.... just take apple when steve jobs died. I would have bailed myself, but here we are today, and I have been proven wrong, in the short term at least.

[swak]

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history may prove you right, but if I was investing with a loan (heloc I assume?) I'd be looking at something that I wouldn't cry if I had to hold long term and that could cover the interest. I'd be looking at dividend stocks, ones like CHR or CJ where they have quite good returns as well as good potential. Or ones like RSI or PPL which have rock solid sustainable dividends and stock prices that fluctuate only a little bit... and I'd be looking at buying these on a downturn. That way if anything happens with the market and the stock falls below my buy price, the dividend will cover the interest and probably still net me a 2% ROI.



But as Sam said, whatever makes you sleep at night is probably the correct investment. With BRK.A you have a company that has consistent growth..... but has a brilliant man at the helm that is 87. If he dies, and he will, expect confidence in the company to fall instantly. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night investing 250k into that company with a loan. Now, that doesn't mean the compnay wont be just as profitable or rebound.... just take apple when steve jobs died. I would have bailed myself, but here we are today, and I have been proven wrong, in the short term at least.

Regarding your comments on Buffet, he's an icon and the best of the best no debate.... But, while he is still massively involved in his company, I honestly doubt that he's doing much of the account management these days. BRK.A will drop no doubt when his day comes (this will be super unfortunate for us all), but the company and the ETF will still go strong, i have no doubt of that.

[Feruk]

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purely my view:

I'm not a huge fan of ETFs for myself. i view them as half way between a mutual fund and stocks, or a half measure. It's not exactly what i'd call diversifying and it's not exactly going to see huge growth either because you lump all the shit in with the good, and you only focus on one sector.

Take HMMJ for example; compare it to WEED, aph, or acb, and anyone buying HMMJ would have been better off just rolling the dice on any one of the big players in Canada.

acb was at 1.92, weed was at 6.80ish. they're at 3+ and 16+ respectively now, whereas HMMJ was at lowest 8.50 and at highest 10.50?

IMO if you want to go heavy in to one industry, you should probably research the heck out of that industry and pick 1-2 stocks in it.

Or if you want to diversify, go with a mutual fund.

So your argument is that because a diversified ETF in the hottest sector in Canada this year did not do as well as the top couple stocks, ETFs are a poor choice? You then suggest a mutual fund where a manager picks stocks is somehow more diversified than an ETF which holds all the stocks in that sector? Lol.

[SilverRex]

PONY

got our 5th wave higher, now I do believe the bottom is finally in. unless the waves becomes extended which could keep going up, it is now ready to make a wave 2 correction that should not break below 2.8

Natgas

still holding my Ugaz. this is probably the 4th time in the last month that is again trying to solidly break above 3.00, will see if it can finally do this.

[max_boost]

+40% on canopy now lol

This isn’t normal for me lol normal is losing money! Paper gains. Haha