Official Short-term Investments Thread

[BigMass]

our dollar going down and gold going up. It's about the only bright spot in my financial portfolio right now. Should have gone %100 into gold a year ago when i knew this shit was coming.

Should have also sold my house 1 year ago instead of waiting. My procrastinating probably cost me 200k overall. How's that for stupid losses. It's one thing to just not know and get cought, it's another to talk about it and know it's coming and just being all talk and no action.

[Inzane]

I bought another 1000 HOU at 6.30 today.

Call me stupid but I was hoping to cover my other position at 7.50 from a couple weeks back. D'oh.

[Z_Fan]

I think it is a good idea. I think HOU is going to open with a gap up. And I think ANYONE, and I mean ANYONE who has a chance to get the fuck out of HOU near even because of an average down last minute purchase...they should BAIL as fast as they possibly can.

Solid advice for day traders IMO.

[broken_legs]

Anyone looking at the VIX lately?

The VIX is setting lower highs, and lower lows. It's still super high, but to me the trend is obvious from here. The fear level is going down, thus the markets should be bottoming here.

If you draw a trend line from all the tops on the VIX you see that tomorrow is kind of a key day, if it goes higher, say above 50 then we are breaking the trend. If not, i think it will be rejected again and the volatility will continue to drop leading to some sort of rally in the markets.

I believe we'll see financials rally when more details are slowly released about this new treasury plan, and perhaps we will see oil and other commodities come along for the ride.

[BigMass]

Funny thing is with all the negativity around oil lately, I think oil, along with other commodities, is one of the most fundamentally strong long term investments at this point.

But i know you guys are mostly worried about trading and not investing. Short term, who knows. Might as well go to a Casino if i was going to do that.

[max_boost]

It'll be a few more weeks before the financial rescue plan is revealed. If today's conference was any indication, there's no faith in Treasury Tim lol

The most dangerous of all this is, the banks still have yet to reveal what exactly is on their balance sheets. Now that's fucking scary. We have no idea exactly how much bad debt they have. $1 trillion could just be a drop in the bucket.

There's a lot of time to invest and go long imo. The markets aren't going anywhere for awhile. With that said, everyone should have some sort of gold/precious metals exposure in their portfolio. I'm very bullish on gold and like SilverRex, will be buying every time the gold spot pulls back 2-3%. $1200 gold would be great, $1500 would be OMG, $2000, well I would like to see it in my life time lol

Oil is a safe long term investment, as long as you aren't buying HOU lol The problem with the commodity itself, it's biggest customer is in the midst of a deep recession. It's demand destruction right now. Short of the USD devaluing or Middle East conflicts, oil is going to be stuck in the ranges of $40-50 for the rest of 2009.

Many pages back I was calling for $30 oil this quarter and I still believe in it. HOU is going to trend lower and HOD is going to trend higher. Trade with caution.

Lastly, until the TSX/DJI retest its November lows and go below it, I remain unconvinced that we have reached the bottom. When that happens, I will shift my focus to going long on the index.

[Canmorite]

I want to see what these banks are holding, and how the Fed is handing out money (loaning).

It's interesting how the Fed is owned by the same banks that they're lending too. Bailing themselves out with themselves, and tax payer dollars.

Tax payers don't want to pay for this fucking mess. $9-10 TRILLION and counting

[civic_rida]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt...43918620090210


HIGHLIGHTS FROM API REPORT (In million barrels): - Crude -1.996 (forecast +3.1) - Distillate +0.853 (forecast -1.5) - Gasoline -2.923 (forecast +0.6)


rally tomorrow?

[aklalani]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
What did you get in to HOU at Aklalani?

That's a lot of shares. Do you still have some of your original shares?

yea man. im sitting at 25000 shares now. hopefully the 10000 from today will be sold tomorrow at my target of $7. i got in today at $6.50

[SilverRex]

ok this is indeeding turning out to be one of the most interesting week EVER.

right now the market shit the bed BUT, whats the deal, could it be a fake? I mean for long investor you just have to screen out the noise and tell yourself, phuck, if this is bottom then its time to load up.

Right now oil in the 37, considering it held around 40 for so long and so well tells me that if the market suddenly Rallies, I think oil will rise sharply

beginning with the inventory numbers. and the finalization of the bailout, if you think again what has change in the last few weeks? not much, other than the fact the market wasnt happy with the details of the bank bailout, but once that is absorbed and people realize, hey money is there, like broken_legs mention, the fear factor is deminishing.

but with your worried, look for oil to pop its head to test the 39 area and get out. or reduce your position. or if your lucky to have gotten at the low, I'll set a stop and see if oil does indeed pick up and go.

as for gold, im sad to see 910 didnt hold, neither did 920, which we are now in a VERY critical zone, if gold gets above 930, it could be serious, meaning, a burst of 20-30 dollars upward. But I think when its too obvious we do the opposit, because if its true that gold short term only can go down from here, then the 926 right now is a gods gift for bears, thus im adding to my short (of course with a tight stop above 931. right now its trying to put in a top, lets hope im forecase is correct. death to gold short term.


edit: gold is moving down moving my stops to break even and see where it goes from there, shorted at 926.

on the oil front, the API report usually ignored by the media, however last week the report did manage to come in close to the EIA data. (7+ million vs 8+ million)

therefore, if the API forecast a drop in crude inventory and this is actually confirmed with the report this morning, then boy, is oil in for a big rally (of course it would fuel it even more if the DOW was to rebound in a big way)

it will be a big day today, because technically if DOw was to move lower, it would set a very bearish tone for another few hundred points, however if the 7800 level is actually a hold, then the only way it can go is up. I hope for a huge day in the market, big drop in gold, big rally in oil, and everyone is happy.

I hope yesterday was simply a way to shake out weak hands from the big players.

[DarthHonda]

I hope you're right Rex, I'm holding my breath for oil big time

[LBG]

hey question guys, I have shares in oil.to.. what happens when they get "delisted"? should I GTFO? lol thx

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by LBG
hey question guys, I have shares in oil.to.. what happens when they get "delisted"? should I GTFO? lol thx

delisted = value goes to $0.00. Should you get out? why did you buy it initially? where do you think it'll go?

[DarthHonda]

you'll still own the shares, but will have no way to get out, so yeah, GTFO if you can break even or even just a small acceptable loss after your selling commission.

[max_boost]

I'm helping you guys out.

I'm in HOD.

Taking one for the team.

Thank me later.

[Nova316]

http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...IL-947391.html

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by Nova316
http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...IL-947391.html

lol death sentence extention for LBG? better GTFO while you can...

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Nova316
http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...IL-947391.html

Guess they are trying to find some other place to list their shares. It might not be completely useless after all!

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm helping you guys out.

I'm in HOD.

Taking one for the team.

Thank me later.

YEAHHH I would be forever grateful if oil gets a big rally today.

[DarthHonda]

oil just shot up 20 cents after max got into HOD