Here’s How Canada’s Oil Sands Could Collapse by 2030

[ipeefreely]

Alberta's bitumen may be obsolete much sooner than you think.

According to the oil industry our society will keep burning oil for a long time. The low oil prices that have wreaked havoc in Alberta and other oil-producing jurisdictions for the past several years are just a temporary slump. Prices will soon rise. Global demand will grow. Canada's oil sands will expand by 53 percent. Any talk of the industry soon collapsing is "greatly exaggerated," argues the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

But more and more evidence suggests sunny predictions such as these are dead wrong. The global oil industry could be on the brink of a rapid and irreversible decline. If and when it begins, Canada's oil sands would be one of the first major casualties.

Good thing we have lots of natural gas to sell for all those power plants they'll need (and will have to build) to power all those electric vehicles!

Alberta also has a bunch of rare earth metals that they'll need for those fancy batteries too!


Predicts on how quickly we'll see the giant change?

[g-m]

lol vice.

[msommers]

I believe that our oil demand will drop but never go away completely. It will get to a point of not making financial sense though

Instead we should invest in geothermal energy, sell electricity. Look further into diamonds in Alberta.

[dirtsniffer]

Hahaha fuck vice . How about here is 1000 ways where the oil sands doesn't collapse.

[A790]

It's funny watching people respond to these articles wit the typical "fuck this" attitude. It's also funny that we live in a world where such an outcome is a possibility.

3 years now the patch has been struggling with oil at over $40 a barrel. So, what happens if it does drop?

[Tik-Tok]

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It's funny watching people respond to these articles wit the typical "fuck this" attitude. It's also funny that we live in a world where such an outcome is a possibility.

My bet is there will be a point in time where someone in the middle east does something really stupid in retaliation to the west doing something equally dumb, and we won't have access to their oil anymore. Whether it be because it's an oil embargo, blockade, or sanctions.

[dirtsniffer]

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It's funny watching people respond to these articles wit the typical "fuck this" attitude. It's also funny that we live in a world where such an outcome is a possibility.

3 years now the patch has been struggling with oil at over $40 a barrel. So, what happens if it does drop?

I was referring to the journalistic quality of the article. Vice quotes two prominent economists but doesn't name either. I wonder why.

[suntan]

A long period of $50 oil will be very good for Alberta. Wages will readjust eventually.

[ExtraSlow]

My opinion is that the rapid expansion of oil sands that we saw in the recent past and that is just finishing now and the next few years will never be required again.

Total global oil demand is still increasing, but that can't last too much longer. Once demand growth stops and turns to demand contraction, it's very hard to predict where price will go. Supply growth is only possible with massive capital expenditures, so as the capital flows reduce, will supply drop faster than demand or the opposite??

Much has been written on the topic, but nothing I find credible and evidence based.

Me, I'm betting on strong prices for another two decades, but what do I know?

[Xtrema]

Most oilsand development has been written down. It's all about operations going forward. As long as we stay at 80c dollar and oil stay at $50, we will keep going with 0 growth.

The problem is access to pacific shore to get products out, fuck BC NDP. If anybody need more oil, it's China, even with green energy offset.

They have no problem with conflict minerals in batteries but oil is the evil.

[J-hop]

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I was referring to the journalistic quality of the article. Vice quotes two prominent economists but doesn't name either. I wonder why.

This, hey I found two economists in North America that agree with me, let's write an article.

[Gestalt]

Oil industry will uust create another war.

We've seen it many times.

[tonytiger55]

World population hit 7 billion in 2011. It is expected to hit 9 billion by 2040.

So with two billion extra people ...where is the energy, plastics, fuel, electricity, machinery going to come from to produce more food, infrastructure, smart products with complex plastics, and ipad's..?

Energy has become diverse. Its interesting when I was in the Uk there is always a big discussion about oil and energy and access to resources. There was talk about north sea oil, but its not heavy enough.
Yet in Canada we have heavy oil and yet we write it off. Alberta needs access to markets.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Gestalt]

We have the meens we just lack will.

Cold turkey is often best.

[dirtsniffer]

You really meen that? Turn off the gas to your house.

[RealJimmyJames]

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Oil industry will uust create another war.

We've seen it many times.

I wish they would hurry the hell up with this big war.

[HiTempguy1]

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but it won't be as attractive as it used to be.

Coal and wood are still used even if considered legacy products (as a fuel and as a building material).

Attractive is all relative. The mines will run until the companies go bankrupt, its how it always has and always will be.

KEARL has the capacity to expand not once, but two more times over the completed KID and KEP projects. So double the output of the current combined plant capacity. The amount of oil in that mine must be staggering if it was supposed to run for 50+ years at that capacity. Eventually the jobs will become like coal or logging, good enough pay for the work, but it won't be like in its hayday. It's always the same with resource industries.

Syncrude was originally designed with a 50 year lifespan was my understanding. It's now been stretched to 70+ and again, will be ran into the ground by the time any really negative changes occur in O&G. Albian feeds Scottford, so they don't give a flying shit about price of a barrel of oil.

So yea, I think it'll be like logging in BC. Just another industry to the bitter end, instead of a never ending behemoth like people once imagined. The only constant is change, it was bound to end eventually

[J-hop]

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We have the meens we just lack will.

Cold turkey is often best.

This is why anti oil groups never get any true traction (not because some big oil conspiracy is quashing them). The idea that we can stop all oil use tomorrow is naive at best. Will be interesting to see you type out a response on your hemp laptop tomorrow.

It is almost hilarious how the cold turkey people don't get it. You tell them that tomorrow they should stop using anything that requires or was made with petroleum products. Like their car, computer, cell phone, tooth brush, furnace, power, etc. Their response is always "that is an absurd thing to suggest". Then you stare at them waiting for it to click, but it never does.

The demand will only significantly decrease if new technologies outpace population growth which they haven't. According to people on here the idea that ~10 billion is the breaking point for world population is a myth. I think someone in this thread even said the earth could sustain 30+ billion "no problem". So no the demand won't drop significantly for a long time.

[Gestalt]

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This is why anti oil groups never get any true traction (not because some big oil conspiracy is quashing them). The idea that we can stop all oil use tomorrow is naive at best. Will be interesting to see you type out a response on your hemp laptop tomorrow.

It is almost hilarious how the cold turkey people don't get it. You tell them that tomorrow they should stop using anything that requires or was made with petroleum products. Like their car, computer, cell phone, tooth brush, furnace, power, etc. Their response is always "that is an absurd thing to suggest". Then you stare at them waiting for it to click, but it never does.

The demand will only significantly decrease if new technologies outpace population growth which they haven't. According to people on here the idea that ~10 billion is the breaking point for world population is a myth. I think someone in this thread even said the earth could sustain 30+ billion "no problem". So no the demand won't drop significantly for a long time.

Dont build straw hiuses or strawmen.

It doesnt have to be all or nothing. And it wont work as individuals giving up. It had to be policy and society wide.

First declaration should be something like alll new energy must be alternstove. No more new dirty energy under any circumstance (including the inevetable war they will start) We can do that easily. You fear ridiculous outcome lack of vision people need not be consulted.

The rest will fall in place as prioritees shift.