So a lot of hubbub going on about Saudi proven oil reserves of something like 268 billion barrels. Seems like a lot, right? The media sure seems to be making it out to be so, and how Saudi is going to be left with oil they can't sell 20 years from now.
But none of this makes sense to me. Some numbers:
Current worldwide daily oil use: 100mil bbl
Expected peak daily oil use: 112mil bbl year 2044 (average expected gdp growth worldwide, vs the low end case of 2036 peak at 108 and the high end case of cruising by 115 by 2050 in high gdp growth)
Lets expand this out to say that by 2060, we can expect oil to have peaked in 2044 and now be dropping, probably to 100mil bbl or less. To make the math simple, I'm saying we will average 106mil bbl/day from now until 2060.
Marth time:
106mil bbl/day x 365day/year x 41 years = 1,586,290,000,000
1.6 trillion barrels of oil. Now if Saudi is the cheapest producer of oil globally (claims of $4/bbl right now), then it stands to reason that they will sell all of their oil before anyone else does.
What possible logical reason is there to say Saudi oil will be left in the ground? Even if solar power and wind (HA!) becomes viable along with the storage requirements, it takes time to build that infrastructure. Tesla's battery arrays like they have in Australia are not even remotely close to what is really needed for a truly stable system, we're talking a minimum of a decade after the technology is figured out for investment to start putting a dent in oil assuming we find other ways to produce electricity.
So what am I missing? Or is this just typical media sensationalism?