2008 US housing market and recession?

[BigMass]

Originally posted by ercchry


yeah my uncle was talking about this over christmas because i was telling him im thinking of buying a place, he said just wait a year because shit is going to hit the fan very soon, he is on the board of some public company and they are throwing around the idea of laying off 30% of the workers.... and his company had there worst quarter in 20 years.... oh and incase you haven't guessed yet he is in oil and gas

well i work in Oil and Gas and let me tell you the Alberta oil sands are the largest single deposit of oil in the world. There are projects slated for the next 50 years at least. Most of these are being engineered in Calgary and Edmonton. Currently what is exploited in the oil sands is nothing. A small fraction. The amount that can still be built and put to use is too much for Calgary to even handle.

Currently major engineering companies are hiring and looking to double if not triple their currently employee load. Companies are looking at alternative locations for offices due to no vacancy in downtown.

Calgary currently has 1,000,000 people. That is SMALL. I am confident we will hit 2,000,000 people sooner than a lot of people will think. Calgary will be the economic oil and gas hub of North America soon. House prices will stabilize for a bit but IMO we're looking at a consistent housing shortage for many years to come.

I dont know what small company your father is on the board of, but we're talking Shell, Esso, Petro, Encana, BP. These companies will cause Calgary to explode

[Graham_A_M]

^ Its funny you mention that... I've heard more then enough stories and reports to contradict that
... besides drilling up until this Jan has been extremely slow.

It doesn't surprise me the housing market has finally calmed... I think it'll stay at this reasonable pace for a while, with only mild up & downturns. 2 million people? I highly doubt it. I'm a born & bred Calgarian, I just can't for the life of me foreseeing that happen; at least within another 50 years of more.

[BigMass]

natural gas is in the shitter but the oil sands have just begun. They're talking about building 2 nuclear power plants up there to sustain the power needs of these mega plants.

[rc2002]

Originally posted by BigMass
natural gas is in the shitter but the oil sands have just begun. They're talking about building 2 nuclear power plants up there to sustain the power needs of these mega plants.

You're forgetting that if there's a recession and the demand for oil falls, the oilsands will no longer be economical. Currently the prices need to be at least $50-$60 to generate a profit.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by BigMass



Calgary currently has 1,000,000 people. That is SMALL. I am confident we will hit 2,000,000 people sooner than a lot of people will think.

OK. Better start getting all the infrastructure in place then.

[Altezza]

Originally posted by autosm



I am in AZ now . With the amount of building going on here you would never even think of using the recession word .

Hows brand new 3200+ square feet with 4 car garage for less than 300k ? 1500sq 2 car for 130k .

Phoenix has been buzzing for quite a number of years and went through a similar "boom" as Calgary. Prices have come down significantly in the last while. I miss Scottsdale...but I'd probably prefer to live in Chandler.

[civic_rida]

Talisman Output to Fall Short of Company Expectations (Update6)

By Sonja Franklin and Jim Polson

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Talisman Energy Inc., the worst performer last year among Canada's nine biggest energy companies, said 2008 oil and gas output will fall short of earlier forecasts because of asset sales, project delays and spending cuts. Its shares fell more than 5 percent.

Production this year will range from 435,000 to 460,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, compared with an estimated 452,000 barrels in 2007, the Calgary-based company said today in a statement. Talisman sold assets last year that produced 28,000 barrels a day.



whats that about then ?

[ianmcc]

I heard a rumor through the O&G grapevine that there is major trouble ahead. Even with oil at record highs we are headed for a bad year in the sector.

[modded46]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Talisman Output to Fall Short of Company Expectations (Update6)

By Sonja Franklin and Jim Polson

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Talisman Energy Inc., the worst performer last year among Canada's nine biggest energy companies, said 2008 oil and gas output will fall short of earlier forecasts because of asset sales, project delays and spending cuts. Its shares fell more than 5 percent.

Production this year will range from 435,000 to 460,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, compared with an estimated 452,000 barrels in 2007, the Calgary-based company said today in a statement. Talisman sold assets last year that produced 28,000 barrels a day.



whats that about then ?

The question is what was there production 5 years ago?? I guarantee it wasn't anywhere near 400,000/bbl.. That's the point.. yes it's down over last year but that's not saying it's down over the past 5 years..


Here are some of the examples of housing where we're looking.. Absolutely amazing if you ask me..

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...7/details.html

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...4/details.html

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...0/details.html

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...4/details.html

[autosm]

Well a sheet of drywall at home depot is 6.00$ down here .

I figure the materials to build a new house in AZ are at least half of what they are in Calgary.

We are being screwed

[Subwoofah]

Engineering companies are doing well because of the approvals and planning that goes along with the construction of almost anything up in northern Alberta. A lot of smaller oil companies went out of business but the ones that got contracts from the big companies (Encana, BP, Husky, Nexen, Shell, etc) stayed alive and are actually swamped with work (we are hiring double the amount of engineers). I can't say if the oil prices are going to stay up but I do know that projects are still in development and will become functional in a year or two.

[Maddog55]

Originally posted by modded46


The question is what was there production 5 years ago?? I guarantee it wasn't anywhere near 400,000/bbl.. That's the point.. yes it's down over last year but that's not saying it's down over the past 5 years..


Here are some of the examples of housing where we're looking.. Absolutely amazing if you ask me..

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...7/details.html

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...4/details.html

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...0/details.html

http://www.eddykicker.com/idx/reside...4/details.html

Holy CRAP those are nice!!!! God damn......I could live mortgage free and still have a couple hundred in the bank....What are you doing for work down there modded? (I might've asked you before but forget...) I wonder what kind of work I could get down there...being in construction during a recession and all....

[Subwoofah]

Originally posted by Maddog55


Holy CRAP those are nice!!!! God damn......I could live mortgage free and still have a couple hundred in the bank....What are you doing for work down there modded? (I might've asked you before but forget...) I wonder what kind of work I could get down there...being in construction during a recession and all....

Yeah those are nice houses... construction during a recession is probably going to go bad. Maybe right after the recession things would go well with a construction/reno company. Reason being that investors want to flip their houses and may not have the time or ability to renovate a house. Just my thoughts...

[Subwoofah]

In the event of a recession will gas prices go up higher?

[Subwoofah]

heres what another person had to say...

"Canada will certainly slow down, I don't think as much though. I think we're expanding our markets beyond the U.S., and with so much of the economy in energy, that segment won't be very much affected due to overseas growth."

Yay or nay?

[modded46]

Originally posted by Maddog55


Holy CRAP those are nice!!!! God damn......I could live mortgage free and still have a couple hundred in the bank....What are you doing for work down there modded? (I might've asked you before but forget...) I wonder what kind of work I could get down there...being in construction during a recession and all....

I do IT work so I can pretty much anywhere that they have computers and actual work I have over 12 years of experience and several certifications so really shouldn't have a problem getting in somewhere but the cash in the bank will be nice to fall back on if needed.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Subwoofah
heres what another person had to say...

"Canada will certainly slow down, I don't think as much though. I think we're expanding our markets beyond the U.S., and with so much of the economy in energy, that segment won't be very much affected due to overseas growth."

Yay or nay?

Possible but not necessary.

If US fall into recession, their energy need will be lowered. Then people will spend less which will cool economies who exports to US. Less activities, less energy used. Sucks for resource/energy sector.

The market runs on speculation. Chinese analysts said that if China STFU about their ambition, they would have saved billions in acquiring all the energy assets.

BP just came out today saying world oil production has now met consumption. So unless OPEC do something about it, look for oil prices to drop. The $100/barrel is mostly traded on speculation anyway. Most big wigs in the energy sector said it should be around $80/barrel.

Calgary should be cooling now. Oilsand will keep most people busy but all the buy outs, merges and canceled projects will ease the tight labor market a bit.

Why do Calgarians care so much? If you're over 20 yrs old, you have probably live through 1 or 2 major recessions and may be 2 or 3 minor ones. Everyone is worry about their jobs.

[Antonito]

Originally posted by Xtrema



Why do Calgarians care so much? If you're over 20 yrs old, you have probably live through 1 or 2 major recessions and may be 2 or 3 minor ones. Everyone is worry about their jobs.

It seems to me that unless people are actually in the working world during a recession, they don't remember anything about it. Most people my age (25) have no concept of a world where jobs aren't thrown at them and huge raises aren't the norm every 6 months. If we get a nasty recession, a lot of people, especially here on Beyond (home of the 20 year old balla), are going to start freaking the fuck out

[modded46]

Originally posted by Antonito


It seems to me that unless people are actually in the working world during a recession, they don't remember anything about it. Most people my age (25) have no concept of a world where jobs aren't thrown at them and huge raises aren't the norm every 6 months. If we get a nasty recession, a lot of people, especially here on Beyond (home of the 20 year old balla), are going to start freaking the fuck out

I don't agree with that at all.. jobs aren't thrown at them.. Maybe in the last 2 years or so but before that it was really hard to find work and it's not necessarily not being able to find work but good quality work to support your life style. There are a lot of people finding it really hard to make ends meet now and things have been really good.

My point was what is the point of freaking out in the first place.. You can't control what's going to happen so why worry about it?? Just prepare yourself as much as possible and ride it out.. Alberta is doing very well so enjoy it. period.

[Antonito]

Originally posted by modded46


I don't agree with that at all.. jobs aren't thrown at them.. Maybe in the last 2 years or so but before that it was really hard to find work

That might be true, I was in Vancouver before the really big boom, where there were tons of jobs since pretty much after the 90's. Although from what I heard it wasn't really hard to find work, just really hard to find the perfect job, which leads me to:

Originally posted by modded46

and it's not necessarily not being able to find work but good quality work to support your life style.

Yeah, this is where I start getting a bit skeptical. In a real recession, lots of people don't worry about "good quality work to support a life style", they worry about work, to support life. This is what bugs me, people aren't able to find their dream job immediately now, and they start bitching. This is as easy as it will ever get, I pity what that person is going to feel when/if they can't find any job.

Originally posted by modded46

There are a lot of people finding it really hard to make ends meet now and things have been really good.

This is complicated, so lets divide it up. Some people actually got screwed, and that's unfortunate, but that has nothing to do with the economy at the time, but just terrible luck. However, others didn't have bad luck, but were somehow simply unable to cope. These people will fail, and fail hard in the event of a major recession.

Originally posted by modded46

My point was what is the point of freaking out in the first place.. You can't control what's going to happen so why worry about it?? Just prepare yourself as much as possible and ride it out.. Alberta is doing very well so enjoy it. period.

depending on the person, it's quite justifiable to be freaking out. If you have your house and car and don't plan on making any substantial changes, well then yes, chill. But if you are trying to plan something, like purchasing a place that depends on your continued employment, or wanting to have children, or wanting to start a bussiness or whatever it may be that requires a stable economy, it is in fact a big deal