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Deep thoughts this morning. Wondering something. If the utility to an average individual of a 1 million dollar prize is roughly the same as 100 million, what's the best was to calculate and improve the odds of winning a jackpot that is "large enough"?
Maybe more of a philosophical question than a mathematical one.
Originally Posted by ThePenIsMightier
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The two most important economic principles are supply and demand, and the principle of diminishing returns. The principle of supply and demand is well understood by most people and is applied most often.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
The principle of diminishing returns is not so well understood and often applied incorrectly. The principle has many applications. In the case for lotteries, the principle is rather simple. The more money one has, the less value each incremental dollar has. Therefore, as you stated, $100 million is not 100 times "better" than $1 million. Mathematically, it is of course, 100 times larger, but not 100 times more valuable.
Over time, the large multi-state and multi-country lotteries have increased both the cost of the tickets and the odds of winning the jackpot. Therefore, jackpots that exceed $100 million have become more common. Mathematically, it is usually a good idea to buy tickets when the jackpots have rolled to over $100 million since the money represents the contributions of several draws. A players needs to overcome the odds of a single draw and not multiple draws and so, the money contributed from the previous jackpot rolls, tends to increase the value of a given draw.
But, based on the principle of diminishing returns, there is little value to an individual to buy a ticket when the jackpot is over $100 million versus buying a ticket when the jackpot is far less than $100 million.
This leads to the most important strategy when multi-state jackpots exceed $100 million and that is, buying tickets as part of a group. The utility of the win is at its optimal based on the principle of diminishing returns and one is taking advantage of the improved expected value since money from multiple draws has been added to the jackpot prize. And lastly, but also very important, playing as part of a group involves buying many more tickets and therefore making it somewhat reasonable to hope to win the jackpot at one point.
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Group S11 plans to buy 120 Euro Millions tickets for the September 15 Super Draw. The jackpot is £118 million (C$191 million). Each share in Group S11 can win C$2.2 million.
If the September 15 jackpot rolls, then Group S13 will launch to buy tickets for the next draw.
Save your money. As many as 10 new groups may launch this month.
Registered User
The 16 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 6 draw was won - one winning ticket sold in Quebec. Sales of $15.3 million were 9% lower than average and 6% lower than the previous draw. There was a 69% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 25% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 6% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was above average at 61%. The jackpot was fully funded from sales.
Slanty Gwai Lo
Registered User
The $50 million Lotto Max jackpot for the September 8 draw was not won and is fixed at $55 million plus a minimum of 4 Maxmillions for the next draw. One of the two Maxmillions was won. Sales of $43.9 million were 14% higher than average and 28% higher than the previous draw. There was a 74% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 23% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 3% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was just above average at 52%. The jackpot and Maxmillions were under funded from sales by $7.6 million.
Registered User
The 5 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 9 draw was not won and is a minimum $7 million for the next draw. Sales of $14.5 million were 14% lower than average and 6% lower than the previous draw. There was a 71% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 24% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 5% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was very low at 39%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $2 million.
Registered User
The 7 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 13 draw was not won and is a minimum $9 million for the next draw. Sales of $13.8 million were 18% lower than average and 5% lower than the previous draw. There was a 72% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 24% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 4% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was very low at 44%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $1.1 million.
Registered User
Group S13 launched to buy tickets for the September 19 Euro Millions draw. The jackpot is an estimated £122 million (C$202 million).
The S groups plan to buy at least 295 tickets for the September 19 Euro Millions draw. Each share in Group S11 can win C$2.3 million and each share in Group S13 can win C$3.3 million.
Registered User
Group M41 launched to buy tickets for the September 22 Lotto Max draw. The jackpot is fixed at $60 million plus an estimated 14 Maxmillions.
Registered User
The $55 million Lotto Max jackpot for the September 15 draw was not won and is fixed at $60 million plus an estimated of 14 Maxmillions for the next draw. One of the four Maxmillions was won. Sales of $49.8 million were 29% higher than average and 13% higher than the previous draw. There was a 71% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 25% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 4% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was above average at 56%. The jackpot and Maxmillions were under funded from sales by $1.6 million.
Registered User
Group S14 launched to buy tickets for the September 22 Euro Millions draw. The jackpot is an estimated £136 million (C$225 million).
Registered User
The 12.3 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 20 draw was won - two winning tickets sold in Quebec and Ontario. Sales of $15.1 million were 10% lower than average and 1% lower than the previous draw. There was a 70% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 25% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 5% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was just above average at 53%. The jackpot was fully funded from sales.
Registered User
More than C$300 million spread across 18 major prizes are available to be won today.
Group S14 launched to buy tickets for the September 22 Euro Millions draw. The jackpot is an estimated £134 million (C$227 million).
The S groups bought 342 Euro Millions tickets for the September 22 draw. Each share in Group S13 can win C$2.7 million and each share in Group S14 can win C$3.2 million.
Group M41 launched to buy tickets for the September 22 Lotto Max draw. The jackpot is capped at $60 million plus an estimated 14 Maxmillions.
The M groups bought 344 Lotto Max tickets for the September 22 draw.
Registered User
So the $60 Lotto Max jackpot was won in "Alberta". Does this mean it was not won in Calgary, but rural Alberta instead?
Registered User
It means not in Calgary and not in Edmonton.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Registered User
The 5 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 23 draw was won - one winning ticket sold in Ontario. Sales of $14.2 million were 16% lower than average and 7% lower than the previous draw. There was a 71% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 24% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 5% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was very low at 39%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $2.1 million placing the Guaranteed Prize Fund at a new record deficit of $66.4 million.
Registered User
Group S15 launched to buy tickets for the September 26 Euro Millions draw. The jackpot is an estimated £143 million (C$239 million).
The S groups bought 430 tickets for the September 26 Euro Millions draw. Each share in Group S14 can win C$3.2 million and each share in Group S15 can win C$3.1 million.
Registered User
Group S16 launched to buy tickets for the September 29 Euro Millions draw. The jackpot is an estimated £155 million (C$257 million). This is the largest Euro Millions jackpot in 3 years.
The S groups bought 376 Euro Millions tickets (so far) for the September 29 draw. One share in each group can win the following:
Group S14 - C$3.5 million
Group S15 - C$3.3 million
Group S16 - C$3.9 million
Registered User
Group S17 launched to buy tickets for the October 3 Euro Millions draw. The jackpot is capped at £167 million (C$279 million).
The S groups bought 345 Euro Millions tickets (so far) for the October 3 draw. Each share can win the following:
Group S14 - C$3.8 million
Group S15 - C$3.6 million
Group S16 - C$3.7 million
Group S17 - C$4.1 million
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