Official Short-term Investments Thread [Archive] - Page 128 - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

SilverRex

04-16-2009, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by KleanCord
Isn't AIG effectively bankrupt? Not trying to fear monger or anything, but I don't understand why AIG would ever be up with exception of day trading it. Wasn't the plan to let it fail and let funds flow through AIG to the other banks?

Where is SR today? I am missing the oil charts :(

sorry not much change for oil, hence no need to post the same chart every day.

DOW closed above the important 8087, this could be interesting for the next day or two if it is indeed a break out. even then the next resistance is right around the corner 8450 follow by 9250. The way I see, the market is rallying way too fast and too soon, which is approaching a very risky territory. My thoughts would be, follow your stops and dont leave any position open in this rally.

gold share is another story. I already stated few days back that it would be nice for gold to continue to jump higher, but it can quickly fall to 840 in a heart beat. That would be my cup of tea as far as entry. With many gold miners report within weeks, they should be reporting strong earnings, I suspect gold share and gold price has been over sold for awhile now, a good rally should be around the corner.

lots of interesting things coming up, april 19 turn date (if anything shall happen) the bank stress test result next week, chart wise, gold still looking good. It is truely not easy to invest when your watching the price daily. As buffet puts it, if you investment in something you believe in, you rather see a low price, not high. so risk reward now, with the market already pull a fast one 30% in such a short time, it will only get more dangerous going long expecially the ecomomy hasnt recover one bit, its reeling on the heels of hope, and some good news. All it take is one big negative sentiment and the trend changes immediately. Since expectation are much higher now if the market is to sustain higher prices.

yoda124

04-16-2009, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by max_boost

Just got in 100 shares at $388.

The most expensive stock I've ever bought. This is the first time I've bought into Google.

:drama:

bought another 100 at the close also

CONGRATS

yoda124

04-16-2009, 03:03 PM

SHYT...ceo farted during CC.Google lost back all a/h gains.

Dinan

04-16-2009, 03:10 PM

^^^ what happened?

why is it still trading? it's 5:20 :dunno:

max_boost

04-16-2009, 03:26 PM

Alright. FML

Update me please. Exactly WTF just happened?

yoda124

04-16-2009, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by max_boost
Alright. FML

Update me please. Exactly WTF just happened?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Google-growth-slows-apf-14950752.html

Dinan

04-16-2009, 04:55 PM

why is there still trading?? who trades now? when does it stop ??:dunno:

KleanCord

04-16-2009, 04:56 PM

Dinan,

sorry I didn't know I had a pm.

I was going to post the answer in the forum if you don't mind. Your questions are ones typically asked, so hopefully some others will get some use out of the answers.

Yield is basically the dividend / share price purchased at. Yield will change daily as the stock price changes. When I said 4.5% on Husky that was based on:
$0.30 dividend received x by 4 (number of times this company usually pays out the dividend (quarterly)) / price purchased the stock at. In my case I purchased the stock at $27.23. In your case the yield would be a bit different.

I sold Husky today at $29.44, but my yield would have still been 4.5% because that is based on the original purchase price, which is simply more shares per dollar paid.

How dividend payments work:
They declare the dividend. This just means they announce how much they are going to pay.
Then the have an ex-dividend date. You must own the stock before this date. This is usually 2 days before the date of record.
Then they record the dividend. They note who owns the stock.
Then finally they have the pay date. If you own the stock before the ex-dividend date you receive payment.

The tricky part about this is the stock actually falls by the amount of the dividend after payment. If it doesn't then you could buy the stock before the ex-dividend date and receive the dividend and sell the day after effectively getting the dividend for free.

KleanCord

04-16-2009, 05:03 PM

Max were you talking about Google and why they went down despite a surprise to the upside?

I have the simple answer. Their guidance for Q2 was not so rosey, saying that they do not have cash burning their pockets, and that they are feeling the negative effects of the economy. Don't forget these guys are essentially and advertising business, all of which have been bad. I think if there is an overreaction and they are sold off too much, this makes them a buy.

How much is too much? I would start to consider thinking about them if the P/E was in the low 20s, not high 20s. But that is just me.

I think this is starting to make RIM look even better. There are not many companies out there that are true growth at this point. Google was considered as much and hence why you see some trepidation in after hours trading when the CEO announces they are feeling the heat. When a company is getting a P/E of 28 you expect a lot of growth, not just a little. For the first time ever Google's did not add to their workforce.

But rest assured, it is not like Google is struggling.

Dinan

04-16-2009, 06:00 PM

^^ thanks for the info :thumbsup:

you got out of HSE too......i still cant believe it went in the mid 29's just like that, what happened?

you looking to get back into it again? in the low 27's. it should get back down there.

Euro_Trash

04-16-2009, 07:31 PM

Alright I am finally in a position where I can start keeping an eye on this thread.

With Total trying to buy out UTS, what does everyone think of the UTS stock?

Inzane

04-16-2009, 08:16 PM

WTF happened to gold today?? Why the drop now?

I logged in this morning to a nasty surprise on HGU.

Dinan

04-17-2009, 05:36 AM

^^^ then you shouldn't log in today.

:facepalm:

SilverRex

04-17-2009, 06:37 AM

well with the close above 8087 DOW yeserday we will see just how further this rally can go

so far so good and that should set oil to advance

looking at the chart which hadnt really changed, remember HOU is trading June contract price which sits at around 52.40 as I write this, I would use that as guage as that puts price right at the red circle area, which means if june oil can keep above 52 I will say oil is ready to push up.

as long as 52 holds, one can try to enter with a tight stop below 52. range I would suggest between 52-55 then I will have to see how oil does at 55, perhaps wait for a pull back or it may break and wait for a retest of 55 for re-entry.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil41.jpg

gold is testing its previous bottom, either this will hold or we could see our 840-850 :) alot of people are calling gold to turn up next week so we should hopefully see a bottom either today or monday.

Dinan

04-17-2009, 07:39 AM

^ nice update!

lets wait for 850 gold, to buy in some more :nut:

let us know when you buying hou and specialy HGU :D

e36bmw///

04-17-2009, 07:42 AM

KleanCord

04-17-2009, 07:47 AM

Citi already released. Beat expectations but still posted loss.

This whole beating expectations and no reaction on the market is becoming a common thing on the financials.

e36bmw///

04-17-2009, 07:52 AM

Jlude

04-17-2009, 07:54 AM

AIG didn't go down yet!!!

Spoke too soon... one second it was up and then down.

Dinan

04-17-2009, 07:54 AM

anyone looked into CLL-T ??? it has gone up nicely in the past week!

Jlude

04-17-2009, 07:56 AM

lulu is up... still... I love it.

Jlude

04-17-2009, 07:57 AM

HWD is seeing steady climbs. They've gone from 1.70 to 4.98 in 3 weeks.

I never pulled the trigger, but they're doing quite well.

e36bmw///

04-17-2009, 07:57 AM

e36bmw///

04-17-2009, 07:58 AM

Jlude

04-17-2009, 08:07 AM

WTF is going on with AIG..

just dropped 6%!!!

e36bmw///

04-17-2009, 08:14 AM

Z_Fan

04-17-2009, 08:15 AM

I was going to sell my AIG at $1.70 and see about flipping it all day. But then I fed my kid came back and it was $1.54. LOL Piss me off.

HGU about to hit $8 territory. Gold looking weak IMO. Fuck. I need $12.00 HGU to get out even. :facepalm:

This is starting to get ugly (again) for me. I should have stayed out.

Dinan

04-17-2009, 08:23 AM

^ ^^^^

you got alot of share? like me

ahhhh, it's under 9 now :facepalm: :(

997TT

04-17-2009, 08:24 AM

Well i've just done everyone a big favour and sold my HGU for a nice fat loss. 2nd time i've taken it a hit on that stock ... portfolio is declining fast. lol

I'm gonna take a shot at BAC ...report earnings monday. Bought in at $10.50.

bought HGD at $9.90 ... can't wait to take a loss on this one too.

Z_Fan

04-17-2009, 08:30 AM

Tell me how much you lost on HGU 997TT. It will make be feel better. $5k. $10k? Please tell me you lost at least that much!

997TT

04-17-2009, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Tell me how much you lost on HGU 997TT. It will make be feel better. $5k. $10k? Please tell me you lost at least that much!

lol ... well i'm happy to report that my last 2 trades on HGU cost me around $7500. But my daytrading portfolio has held up relatively well (down around 5%) in the past month.

just sucks to have my gains on other stocks wiped out b/c of HGU.

had it not been for HGU, i would've had a decent run ... kind of like the markets. Fk, i don't even know why invest.

when the markets goes up my portfolio goes down, when the markets go down, my portolio goes down.

SilverRex

04-17-2009, 08:47 AM

DOW flerting with 8088 area important level. we will see if the market can close above or below this.

obviously we if close above, we can start looking at the market to rally further into 8400s and oil has a better chance to head higher.

but if we close below it, then that could signal potentially a false breakout.

Gold i expect we are near a bottom if not at one, the next few days will be critical how gold reacts at 865, 850 and 840, what we need is to see strength at those level. gold is way over sold at the moment, I expect 20-30 dollar bounce min if we do hit 840-850, as the weekly chart gold STO is now right at the bottom. the last 7 times when this indicator show such level, gold price had hit a bottom both short term and long term. If you notice the weekly MACD has cross over going down, to me that means gold moving higher in the short term will not be easy as day traders will have the mentality of short the rallies, this only makes it that when gold and if it does hit the down trend line from 1006, 967 and now should be 920 to be a very strong resistance. But im sure this resistance will soon become 900 if gold is to keep at these level.

for if you have a hard time stomaching gold's volatile move, I suggest turn off the PC and enjoy some hockey this weekend.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold35.jpg

Z_Fan

04-17-2009, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
lol ... well i'm happy to report that my last 2 trades on HGU cost me around $7500. But my daytrading portfolio has held up relatively well (down around 5%) in the past month.

I knew that would make me feel a little better. I'm not sure if I take joy in other peoples misfortune - I don't think so - I think it is that I enjoy having company while I suffer misfortune. :poosie:

I'm not down that far yet on HGU, but were getting real close. I just bought more.

mac_82

04-17-2009, 08:59 AM

Sirius is up 17% today.

$0.48

:clap:

Jlude

04-17-2009, 09:34 AM

I'm even again with AIG... might just sell.

I've been looking at Breakwater Resources... TSX... anybody ever heard of them?

djayz

04-17-2009, 10:03 AM

For all you guys holding HGU let me assure you that I have bought this stock so many times over the past year and no matter what price I get in at theres always profit to be made.
Last year I got in after chasing the stock and it went down like crazy but after about 4-5 weeks of patient waiting it went back up and I turned a decent profit.

Gold is something that takes patience and you can't always just buy today sell tomorrow. It works sometimes and thats when you take advantage but if you get stuck buying it up on it's way down just wait it out a few weeks and you're good to go again.

Best thing to do if you have the cash is to buy multiple positions and you'll almost never be in the negative.

I've got a buy order in today for 8.80 and another at 8.40. Hope they fill and we see some upside after that. :thumbsup:

natejj

04-17-2009, 10:06 AM

YRI is pretty low right now as well, less risky then HGU, a great investment.

997TT

04-17-2009, 10:09 AM

Bac dropped to $10.30 after i bought but now at $10.73. i'm praying insider trading knows something about there results and is causing the slight run.

HGU ... i would be happy if it got into the low 8's. cause then i could sell my HGD for a $1 profit and buy back into HGU.

e36bmw///

04-17-2009, 10:15 AM

max_boost

04-17-2009, 11:12 AM

I'm tempted to just clear the portfolio right before the weekend. I am up on everything except HGU.

The only thing I want to keep is RIM and DNDN. :bigpimp:

KleanCord

04-17-2009, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm tempted to just clear the portfolio right before the weekend. I am up on everything except HGU.

The only thing I want to keep is RIM and DNDN. :bigpimp:

honestly, after googles report I am more than happy to keep RIM. Backwards P/E of 21 and earnings are only going up. They seem to be unfairly undervalued when every other "growth" stock is garnering P/E 28+ and quite frankly a lot of them are not growing, but rather maintaining.

I'm up 53% on RIM and the only thing I am considering is buying Puts for hedging against any downside.

max_boost

04-17-2009, 11:47 AM

So this run up on the TSX has been awesome. 7500 to almost 9500 in 6 weeks. What now? Keep climbing? ORLY? Sentiment changes fast doesn't it? 6 weeks ago I was thinking we might see 6000's and here we are approaching 10,000. :nut: :dunno:

bigbadboss101

04-17-2009, 12:18 PM

Ok, I have some FAS. Sold 2 positions the last 3 days. This position I am up $.30, only 600 shares. Opinions? Take a chance with upcoming earnings rather than taking the little gain?

I am also tempted to average down on HGU although this morning I got some ELD.

Also have position in OPTI.

997TT

04-17-2009, 01:24 PM

so far so good with BAC (up $0.65) and HGD (saved myself over $1k in gains + losses by keeping HGU)

Man i hope BAC blows away estimates on Mon

Jlude

04-17-2009, 02:00 PM

I'm out... sold AIG...

I'm only holding LULU

997TT

04-17-2009, 02:02 PM

fk, that was a crazy sell off the end.

BAC went from $11.1 to $10.60 (dropped $0.20 in the last seconds of trading)

ECA dropped $0.40.

guess we'll see what monday brings

max_boost

04-17-2009, 02:16 PM

Yeah I sold out of AIG too. I wanted to pocket something. I made 30% and that's good enough for me.

I still have C and BAC. I'm up but not very much right now. Monday will be interesting......

e36bmw///

04-17-2009, 03:04 PM

Jlude

04-17-2009, 03:11 PM

I don't know what to get into...

My buddy just bought some ridiculous penny stock... it was .005/share... it jumped to a .25 in two days.... he sold out and made 40k off his 1-2k investment.

Dinan

04-17-2009, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Jlude
I don't know what to get into...

My buddy just bought some ridiculous penny stock... it was .005/share... it jumped to a .25 in two days.... he sold out and made 40k off his 1-2k investment.

DAMN!!!! wow!!!!!:eek:

what stock is this? you should have got in on it too...

Jlude

04-17-2009, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by Dinan

DAMN!!!! wow!!!!!:eek:

what stock is this? you should have got in on it too...

He never told me about it... it was just one of many penny stocks that he was holding.

Pretty lucky though....

Dinan

04-17-2009, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by Jlude

He never told me about it... it was just one of many penny stocks that he was holding.

Pretty lucky though....

so why did it jump up so much?

should ask him what stock it is, maybe it's not too late to get in on :nut: LOL......

so i guess penny stocks are good, sometimes??

anyone else into penny stocks?

i'm looking into CLL, it's trading at 1.30, or so now....

Dinan

04-20-2009, 06:02 AM

so SR, oil is down over $2.50!

what does your magic chart say? :D

e36bmw///

04-20-2009, 06:09 AM

broken_legs

04-20-2009, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by Dinan
so SR, oil is down over $2.50!

what does your magic chart say? :D

Says that it just broke to the downside out of a wedge.

I'd say its going down, but trading doesn't really mean much until the big fish start trading in the US.

Everything is wedged right now, TSX, SnP, Dow, Oil etc...

Should be an interesting week. 6 weeks of solid gains, you really think the market still has legs? We barely moved on all those stellar earnings from the banks. Seems a bit lack-luster to me.

I starting buying puts on XLF Thursday... Will buy more if we see a gap down or break to the downside.

edit:
Oh crap just looked at the futures... -130 points on the dow!

BAC announced 4.3 billion in profits too... I guess no one is buying the new accounting rules haha

SilverRex

04-20-2009, 06:44 AM

ok lets look at gold first

the same chart over and over again, safer bet is waiting for gold to break those down trendline, especially for the upper one that will immediately resume the bullish out look, but as you can see, gold is forming its own wedge lower, only a matter of time when it bottoms out. I think gold is and will find a bottom this week if not already bottomed based on the STO indicator on the weekly. While it bounced off 10 dollar this morning off 865 is interesting, since Martin armgstrong called for a turn date on april 19th. I will laugh so hard if weeks later we look back and 865 is the low for gold because that would be insane accuracy on his prediction. But he did say some time between mid april to mid june something will turn, it could very well be the stock market or gold.

but if gold does somehow suddenly drops and wants to test lower. my bet is the 843-855 area to be the strongest. similar to last april-may, this area typically has alot of support. I would say there is like 4-5 trendline all intersecting in that area. So a very good buying opporunity. And a worse case scenario would have it test between 805-823, why the range? because from the 1033 high to 681 low we have a set of difference retracement support, so you have to remember those support level is works, based on all the things leading up to now, the turn date, the over sold, and how the market is reacting. for now I just have to believe gold is due and quite soon. and I expect gold share is ready to rally this week amid it could dip just a bit further as there is support underneath.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold36.jpg

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/4-19cv/1bGoldSilverAndOilReportApril%2019.jpg

now looking at oil, this could be very interesting, why? because chart wise it hasnt roll over to June prices yet, right now June prices is around 50, looking at the charts I posted for 1 hour and daily. As you can see with May prices testing the 47 area. I would suggest this should hold but what is going to be difficult for some of you if you wanted to enter is that, if this is a triple bottom area, then obvioulsy it will hold but if it wants test and extened further to form that slope as marked the lower trend line, then price will want to touch some where between 45.80-46.50

but looking at the daily chart, you can see that we have not officially test any of our retracement support which is at 46.5, 44 and 41.44. therefore with 46.5 number happens to be both the retracement and near the sloping trend line. I would suggest for those that wish to enter around 47 should consider giving yourself enough stop loss to cover up to 45.8 because we are too close and the sell pressure could over spill into that area. Or better yet, wait for 45-46 area instread with a tighter stop.

If the 45-46 doest hold or bouce, then it would bring the number 44 and 41 back from the dead.

now safer bet is waiting oil to break that green trendline shown. But for gamblers and bottom pickers, that would be hard to not get in now. So take your pick

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil42.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil43.jpg

I must add even with BAC posting profit, premarket is back down below the 8087 level. is that interesting. something or some where just does not want the market to hold above this area, generally for a convincing breach of resistance, it takes 2-3 days closing above the number. So let see if DOW can regain its footing and close above 8087, if it doesnt, then I will continue to find this rally finished. if it does, we got more to go, this monday could be quite the important day. we will soon find out we are at the end of a rally or the beginning for another one.

997TT

04-20-2009, 08:08 AM

Moderators, please change my userid to WORSE_TRADER_EVER

Thanks.

Bac :facepalm:
HGD :facepalm:

Dinan

04-20-2009, 08:09 AM

took some profit off HGU, going to wait for it to drop again(if) to buy in some more...

so SR, did you go get some HOU ?

KleanCord

04-20-2009, 08:13 AM

Well I went in and bought FAZ for the first time. I am sure I am going to lose badly on it...

Z_Fan

04-20-2009, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
Moderators, please change my userid to WORSE_TRADER_EVER

Thanks.

Bac :facepalm:
HGD :facepalm:

I was thinking of you this morning. Let out a few very evil laughs before open when I was checking stuff out. :devil:

Sell HGU at loss, buy HGD only for gold to open strong. Ugh. And since that's 2X ETF's you basically get 4X the loss in that scenario versus straight trading ABX or something.

Fawking nuts. :nut:

Dinan, I thought you were in the HGU well above $9.60 range. So, aren't you selling at a loss here? And praying it goes down?

Anyhow, I held my HGU and sold my AIG on Friday at $1.64. So far that looks like OK choices. But you know, tomorrow could bring something drastically different...

Dinan

04-20-2009, 08:23 AM

yeah i got few at 9.9 and i bought frew more a 8.8 when it droped, i sold me 8.8 shares, but i got still in the 10's,11's tho...

did you sell your lowest, or you holding off..

anyone for HOU ??? :nut:

Jlude

04-20-2009, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by Z_Fan

Anyhow, I held my HGU and sold my AIG on Friday at $1.64. So far that looks like OK choices. But you know, tomorrow could bring something drastically different...

Sold LULU on Friday at 12.06

Sold AIG at 1.62

Very good choices... LULU is down 1.02 already in the first hour of trading. AIG is down as well.

SilverRex

04-20-2009, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by Dinan
took some profit off HGU, going to wait for it to drop again(if) to buy in some more...

so SR, did you go get some HOU ?

no

i am currently flipping HGU, I too exited from my friday position, bought them at 9 dollars. I have other position therefore I can wait if it falls back, if it doesnt just as good.

as for HOu while currently price is attractive, it all depends on how the market does, if it topped out, then oil will find it difficult to sustain momentum, therefore right now, all HOU trade should be kept to short trades only.

Dinan

04-20-2009, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by SilverRex

no

i am currently flipping HGU, I too exited from my friday position, bought them at 9 dollars. I have other position therefore I can wait if it falls back, if it doesnt just as good.

as for HOu while currently price is attractive, it all depends on how the market does, if it topped out, then oil will find it difficult to sustain momentum, therefore right now, all HOU trade should be kept to short trades only.

yeah same here, i got few more positions if it goes any higher... i sold at 9.7, should have waited... lol, it's all good tho....

tempted with HOU :confused:

Z_Fan

04-20-2009, 08:31 AM

I have several different entires in to HGU. I bought more on Friday at $9.09 before it dipped in to the $8's. But I'm not selling it. I'm hoping things keep going up and that those extra shares I bought will get me to break even point sooner. In another twist of good luck, I actually sold HOU shares to buy HGU shares on Friday. Good choice I guess. Based on today HOU.

If gold and gold stocks have 4 or 5 days trending upward, exactly like they recently did (only downward) then HGU will be up nicely and this dip to the 8's will have been an awesome buying opportunity. I'm not too worried about HGU at the moment. Hoping we have a few day run here to bring it up to the 12's.

SilverRex

04-20-2009, 08:44 AM

"Well part of the reason for the market weakness this morning besides being extremely overbought is that results from the stress test of the major banks have been leaked.........and surprise suprise, they are not good...........How is Obama and co. going to spin this??.......Thank god I loaded up on FAZ last week.........so much for a new bull market....lol

The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.

When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day as evidenced by this "main stream media" report.

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.

More details as they become available. . . . . .

UPDATE 0147 HRS EDT Monday, April 20, 2009 --

For those who may be skeptical about the veracity of the stress test report above, be reminded that only last Sunday, April 12, this radio network obtained and published a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Memo outlining their concerns that returning US military vets posed a domestic security threat as "right wing extremists." That memo, available here, is marked "FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY" and contained strict warnings that it was not to be released to the public or to the media. We obtained it and published it days before other media outlets.

That DHS report appeared on this blog at least two full days before the story was picked up by The Washington Times, and virtually every other US media outlet.

Details of certain aspects of the stress test reported above have now been CONFIRMED through REUTERS News service when they disclosed the risk-capital percentages publicly on April 6, 2009 at this link

Further, todays Wall Street Journal (April 20, 2009) is confirming at this link that lending by the largest banks has DECREASED 23% since the government began the T.A.R.P. program, causing many in Congress to ask where the money has actually been going. Apparently, it has been going into propping-up the failing banks instead of out in loans to the public.

Additional details and proofs are forthcoming. . . . . continue to check back on this developing story"

broken_legs

04-20-2009, 09:02 AM

Feels good to be short right now.

With that report im surprised that the financials are only down as little as they are.

KleanCord

04-20-2009, 09:07 AM

Don't forget the report could be a fake.

SR, that swing date was April 20th right? Although I don't necessarily buy the guys ability to predict the exact date it is a stunning coincidence.

Too bad my short for Lulu didn't get approved.

broken_legs

04-20-2009, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by KleanCord
Don't forget the report could be a fake.

Either way, I decided my short term trading thesis that the market will go down led by financials last week.

6 Weeks of gains
Ascending wedge converging at point of resistance at same time converging on downward trend line
Market rally on expectation of profits, but no rally on the profits themselves
Decreasing volume
Contrarian indicators like CNBC articles:
"The problem with being short"
"Gains have staying power"
"Buy high and sell higher"

It seems like it was super obvious this was going to happen, the letter just further enforces my view. Part of me wants it to be a fake because thats pretty crazy if its true...

EDIT:

If history is any guide:

Lucky No. 7?

Investors might be nervous about the incredible rebound in global stock market indexes over the past six weeks, fearful that what goes up so fast must come down at a similarly impressive rate. The facts, however, suggest that these fears might be misplaced.

According to Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500's six-week winning streak of 27.3 per cent (as of Friday) ranks as the third strongest in history. Bespoke looked at all 20 six-week winning streaks of 10 per cent or more since 1927 and found out that week No. 7 wasn't bad at all.

In fact, the S&P 500 has on average gained 0.6 per cent in week seven after a six-week winning streak.

“This week has started out on a sour note, so the market is already facing an uphill battle to close the week higher,” Bespoke said on its blog. "The odds slightly favor the bulls based on historical trading patterns, however."

KleanCord

04-20-2009, 09:35 AM

Yeah, I also decided to jump in the short position. I don't like playing the 3x etfs but I am not sure what else I should be playing to bank on a financial led leg down.

To me the biggest warning sign was that profits were much better than expected and there was no increase in price or action.

These things are essentially illiquid and I don't like fighting the fed, but they have to have an intermediate downleg.

Other short ideas I had:

Teck Cominco - still trying to decide if I should
Lulu - My short wasn't filled.
Brookfield - Again trying to decide. But there is a lot of downside pressure on commercial properties.

On another note I lost more on Etrade financial (was actually way up at one point) and MGM in the last couple of days than I have this entire bear market. Both of these I ended up guessing right but buying at the wrong times and selling at even worse times. Does anyone feel that once going on a losing streak on certain stocks it is best not to touch them again, or is this all mental?

Z_Fan

04-20-2009, 09:39 AM

Ok. So here is a trading question.

Basically I have a sell order in for a penny stock on the TSX. 100,000 shares. Now, there are about 8 orders in front of mine, and have been for several days. All with sell orders of various quantities but at the same share price.

Today, there was a small volume of shares traded. But, instead of coming out from the shares listed at the top, they all came out from my sell order.

Can anyone suggest any reason WHY this would happen? Other than ALL the orders above mine are an "all or none" scenario. Which I find highly doubtful...or suspicious if that is true.

Could it be that RBC had a buyer so they took shares from another RBC seller? Can they even do that or do they have to let the exchange control that? Thoughts????

max_boost

04-20-2009, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm tempted to just clear the portfolio right before the weekend. I am up on everything except HGU.

The only thing I want to keep is RIM and DNDN. :bigpimp:

Originally posted by max_boost
So this run up on the TSX has been awesome. 7500 to almost 9500 in 6 weeks. What now? Keep climbing? ORLY? Sentiment changes fast doesn't it? 6 weeks ago I was thinking we might see 6000's and here we are approaching 10,000. :nut: :dunno:

Originally posted by max_boost
Yeah I sold out of AIG too. I wanted to pocket something. I made 30% and that's good enough for me.

I still have C and BAC. I'm up but not very much right now. Monday will be interesting......

Yeah fuck. I couldn't pinpoint it but I just had a sneaky feeling all this was coming to an end.

Now what? Back to the 7000's? Or is this just a 1 day shake out?

I got stopped out of everything except DNDN+14%. I bought some HGU to cost average and that was the only right call.

I should have just cleared everything on Friday. :rofl:

broken_legs

04-20-2009, 09:46 AM

Next contrarian indicator:

CNBC: US May Not Need Any More TARP Funds to Shore Up Banks

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30303608

:rofl:

SilverRex

04-20-2009, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by KleanCord
Don't forget the report could be a fake.

SR, that swing date was April 20th right? Although I don't necessarily buy the guys ability to predict the exact date it is a stunning coincidence.

Too bad my short for Lulu didn't get approved.

yes so we will see how the report will be released, any hint that protrays that leaked report (rumor) would be a nail in the coffin.

I read the entire Martin Armgstrong's turn cycle, though the april 19th isnt as big as the turn date of the 2007 feb or the leg down at jun 2011, it may or may not mean anything but its interesting because so far the market is reacting to it.

even with out the report, technically the market is due for a pull back and gold is due for a rise

SilverRex

04-20-2009, 10:22 AM

watch out if gold breaks above 900, if it does then that would solidify 865 as a double bottom. I will continue to wait for 840-850 but if gold does get above 900, then that potentially would throw the 840 low out the window which I am just as happy.

so lets go gold. This will be THE most important week and month that will set the tone for the rest of the year or the next few months.

:D exciting to watch isnt it

Dinan

04-20-2009, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by SilverRex
watch out if gold breaks above 900, if it does then that would solidify 865 as a double bottom. I will continue to wait for 840-850 but if gold does get above 900, then that potentially would throw the 840 low out the window which I am just as happy.

so lets go gold. This will be THE most important week and month that will set the tone for the rest of the year or the next few months.

:D exciting to watch isnt it

lets go gold!

what up with oil? it's stuck at -4.00$ ... i got in at hou at 5.26, i dunno if i should hold or jus sell it even!!!

max_boost

04-20-2009, 11:14 AM

Into HOU at $5.25. I just couldn't resist! lol

Picked up a few shares of COS.UN too.

Being very cautious with things.......

Z_Fan

04-20-2009, 11:26 AM

I just bought some HOU too. Just an extremely small position with money that was sitting in cash in my trading account.

NOW, can anyone answer my question at the top of page 640.

KleanCord

04-20-2009, 11:33 AM

Well I am short BAC. I was wanting to do it at the start of the day, but for whatever reason I am always reluctant to short. Too bad I would have already made a healthy profit.

I am worried this massive sell off will result in a massive buying tomorrow so I might not hold it overnight.

Anyone have any insight into Bank of America.

bigbadboss101

04-20-2009, 11:36 AM

I hold FAS. Gonna hold instead of selling for a loss.
Hoping for a reversal in the days/week to come.

Siri, was 0.06 a while ago when I posted on here about it. Today at a point was 0.51. Interesting.

Z_Fan

04-20-2009, 11:37 AM

I think if you bought BAC when it was in the $3's like a lot of people, this pull back wouldn't bother you much. Unfortunately, I think most people didn't hang on to it long enough (like me) because selling it in the $11's would have been fucking sweet.

Lots of people think BAC will be $20 by year end. When I first read that, I thought, crazy talk. But to see it go from $3 to $11+ in short order was an eye opener. Made me a believer that $20 is reasonable in a crazy market.

Rat Fink

04-20-2009, 11:38 AM

max_boost

04-20-2009, 11:43 AM

Z_Fan, thought brokerages eliminated the 'all or none' orders?

Kleancord, I don't think any of us have any insight to any of the companies we are trading ;)

Ok, perhaps the stress test results is necessary to tank the market one more time? At that point I'm going to push a shit load of money into it and then watch for the huge bull run after wards? Yes? No? lol

KleanCord

04-20-2009, 12:00 PM

well BAC keeps playing with my stop. I am guessing I am going to get stopped out only to see the true downleg come.

Dinan

04-20-2009, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
I hold FAS. Gonna hold instead of selling for a loss.
Hoping for a reversal in the days/week to come.

Siri, was 0.06 a while ago when I posted on here about it. Today at a point was 0.51. Interesting.

thats a nice run up!!!!

but who would have known ?? they were saying they might file for Bankruptcy....:dunno:

anyone own or buying siri ??

troyl

04-20-2009, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Ok. So here is a trading question.

Basically I have a sell order in for a penny stock on the TSX. 100,000 shares. Now, there are about 8 orders in front of mine, and have been for several days. All with sell orders of various quantities but at the same share price.

Today, there was a small volume of shares traded. But, instead of coming out from the shares listed at the top, they all came out from my sell order.

Can anyone suggest any reason WHY this would happen? Other than ALL the orders above mine are an "all or none" scenario. Which I find highly doubtful...or suspicious if that is true.

Could it be that RBC had a buyer so they took shares from another RBC seller? Can they even do that or do they have to let the exchange control that? Thoughts????

In fact this is true. I remember reading a while back that if there is a buy and sell order from the same institution, in your case RBC, then those orders will be processed first.