View Full Version : Official Short-term Investments Thread
997TT
09-14-2009, 07:54 AM
picked up some more in the mid $14's too
sigh ... what a way to start monday morning. :banghead:
Dinan
09-14-2009, 07:56 AM
Originally posted by cosmok
No internet in a combine ;)
oh that sucks :( next time when you leave, just put in a sell order, and hope it fills, you never know , specially with NG, it's wild ... well it looks like NG is dropping,:thumbsup:
troyl
09-14-2009, 07:59 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
anyone getting back into HND, ??? NG is up 12 cents ...
Natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.860. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.
However, closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.090 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the late summer decline, weekly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target.
Nat gas pivot point for Monday is 3.11
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.090
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.424
First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.40
Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.960
it made it over 3..09, but iti's currently under, maybe i'll buy and have a stop over 3.10 ....
Where do you get your information that the rise in price was caused by a "light short covering" COT reports?
Dinan
09-14-2009, 08:06 AM
^^
http://crudeoiltrader.blogspot.com/
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 08:07 AM
^ liking the 1.96 target which is in sync with the EW count
Dinan
09-14-2009, 08:11 AM
^ hahaha, that would be sick for HND holders :love:
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 08:16 AM
I hope for all our sake im right about NG at least making one more sell off into the 2.40s if not hit the 1.96 target
I am betting on nov NG at this morning's 4.33 to be the top (remember I said if NG was to break above 4.32 months ago that would signal an advance to 5-6 dollars, similar to oil breaking 45 dollar a very strong trend line resistance)
if NG is to head much lower. I expect the top is in place. as Nov rolls over. it cannot roll over the chart with price higher than 4.33 because it would be a technical breakout, so let see the sell off, the friday 40 cent sell off was impressive. I still want it to get to the 2.60s to satisfy my own target.
what i want is oil to sell off to 65s and dOW to 9300s
Dinan
09-14-2009, 08:51 AM
^^ when do the charts usually roll over ??
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 08:55 AM
looks like mid sept, should be some time this week, there fore I expect nov price not to exceed 4.33 if it does it would be very temporary imo
euro is near a very critical resistance 4719,
im going to put a big short position near there then I expect a good 200+ pt sell off
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 09:00 AM
expecting the market to begin rolling over big time very soon.
Dinan
09-14-2009, 09:01 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
expecting the market to begin rolling over big time very soon.
i hope so! :D :clap:
Dinan
09-14-2009, 09:02 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like mid sept, should be some time this week, there fore I expect nov price not to exceed 4.33 if it does it would be very temporary imo
euro is near a very critical resistance 4719,
im going to put a big short position near there then I expect a good 200+ pt sell off
thats any day now i guess.... so far soo good!
i thought 4.16 and 4.57 were more crucial?
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 09:05 AM
^ those are previous resistance which is important, but the trend line intersecting 4.57 which is now near 4.00 is more important. 4.32 is what I use many weeks ago
superboyazn
09-14-2009, 09:11 AM
Whoa was gonna buy HND at 14.60, then my order got rejected somehow.. then after a 2 minutes it fell to 14.22 and got in.. Lets hope this is the end of NGs rally.
cosmok
09-14-2009, 09:12 AM
Not looking good this morning for NG, creeping up on $0.40 gain already
Dinan
09-14-2009, 09:15 AM
i don't get it, the fundamentals are they same, they have been for a while, i don't get where NG got this power...
why is HND down more ?? hnu is up 16.6 and HND down over 18%, shouldn't they be the same? or closer at least ...
well friday was something like this, and it dropped like a rock in the after noon, lets hope the same today, should sell off by 2.30
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 09:34 AM
dam euro so close to a top, I want a quick spike sell off on the dollar to 75.90 and get it over with then push all the way back and force oil to drop like a brick
Dinan
09-14-2009, 09:47 AM
lets get the sell off started!
anyone going to buy XIU on the 21-22 and sell 23-24 for the dividend, would that work? :) how long do you have to hold it for, just on the 22nd ?
bilal.h1
09-14-2009, 10:00 AM
guys is it worth it to get in HND today, or wait until the split TOM
Dinan
09-14-2009, 10:04 AM
Originally posted by bilal.h1
guys is it worth it to get in HND today, or wait until the split TOM
the split price will take affect on the 16th, either way it doesn't make a difference
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 10:11 AM
ill say its time to load up on hnd
bilal.h1
09-14-2009, 10:27 AM
i am worried that, the price of NG will keep increasing, until the 17th to reduce the contango
Dinan
09-14-2009, 10:38 AM
Originally posted by bilal.h1
i am worried that, the price of NG will keep increasing, until the 17th to reduce the contango
well isn't that a good thing now, cause after 2.30pm est... HND will be trading nov contract more, so if the contango is to be reduce, nov contact shouldn't more too much and oct should move up or nov contract should start sellling off to meat oct, which is good for HND...
i don't get why the % of hnu and hnd are not close to each other...
i'm tempted with HND, ahhhhh:devil:
eljefe
09-14-2009, 10:43 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
well isn't that a good thing now, cause after 2.30pm est... HND will be trading nov contract more, so if the contango is to be reduce, nov contact shouldn't more too much and oct should move up or nov contract should start sellling off to meat oct, which is good for HND...
i don't get why the % of hnu and hnd are not close to each other...
i'm tempted with HND, ahhhhh:devil:
Me too, infact more than tempted - everytime HND has hit around 14 I have added another position. Fingers crossed- one way or another I think a big move is coming on HND and hopefully it is back into the mid to high 20's or better.
Dinan
09-14-2009, 10:45 AM
^^ did you buy in again?
damn it just poped over 15$ :thumbsup:
troyl
09-14-2009, 10:45 AM
Margin traders will be happy once the consolidation is done on HNU.
eljefe
09-14-2009, 10:46 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
^^ did you buy in again?
damn it just poped over 15$ :thumbsup:
Yeah just a couple hundred shares at a time this time around- but only when it gets down around 14. I have a couple more buys in at around 13 if it bounces around that low.
Dinan
09-14-2009, 10:55 AM
^^ nice, i'm still debating lol, and it looks like the more i debate the more i'll end up paying lol..
eljefe
09-14-2009, 10:56 AM
With my luck after I finish loading up I will have the option of buying as many as I want around 10 bucks :banghead:
Dinan
09-14-2009, 11:00 AM
don't load up, never go all in.....
crazy swings, could have bought and sold HND like 10 times lol.....for like 30-50cents profit...
eljefe
09-14-2009, 11:03 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
don't load up, never go all in.....
crazy swings, could have bought and sold HND like 10 times lol.....for like 30-50cents profit...
Noooo, when I say load up I am not all in by any means. I never all in with a stock. When I say load up , I mean to the point I am comfortable with.
Dinan
09-14-2009, 11:09 AM
Originally posted by eljefe
Noooo, when I say load up I am not all in by any means. I never all in with a stock. When I say load up , I mean to the point I am comfortable with.
:thumbsup:
looks like horizon is the big winner in the past few days, HND holders are down more then HNU holders are up... i find it weird, one would think they should be close % wise ... :dunno:
max_boost
09-14-2009, 11:17 AM
Just took another bite out of XIU hehe
Morning market order 6000 shares at $16.87 and just sold at $17.11.
=$1400 profit. So simple. :rofl:
So if the market can open -75pts and then bounce back up +40pts everyday, that would be greatly appreciated and then occasionally I'll strike gold with the +300pts day, it would be even more epic haha
:D
Dinan
09-14-2009, 11:23 AM
Originally posted by max_boost
Just took another bite out of XIU hehe
Morning market order 6000 shares at $16.87 and just sold at $17.11.
=$1400 profit. So simple. :rofl:
So if the market can open -75pts and then bounce back up +40pts everyday, that would be greatly appreciated and then occasionally I'll strike gold with the +300pts day, it would be even more epic haha
:D
damn, you know how to pick the bottom and top, you got the hang of XIU...
so you planning on buying in on the 22nd ?? :)
bg_27
09-14-2009, 11:28 AM
Originally posted by max_boost
Just took another bite out of XIU hehe
Morning market order 6000 shares at $16.87 and just sold at $17.11.
=$1400 profit. So simple. :rofl:
So if the market can open -75pts and then bounce back up +40pts everyday, that would be greatly appreciated and then occasionally I'll strike gold with the +300pts day, it would be even more epic haha
:D
I'm with max_boost, took profits on XIU this morning too, bought after the drop at open and sold at 17.07. Made a few cents profit, but on lots of shares it adds up. Did that a few times last week too on XIU, Citi, AIG, and a couple others.
I still don't get wtf is going on with NG so I haven't touched it yet.
Basically I have been staying away from Horizon's commodity ETF's, I don't want to try and catch the bottom or tops, I trade with the trends, and I don't see a clear trend either way right now.
max_boost
09-14-2009, 11:45 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
damn, you know how to pick the bottom and top, you got the hang of XIU...
so you planning on buying in on the 22nd ?? :)
lol it's not picking the bottom,it's just buying it at the market price which just so happens to be the day lows.
I'm actively trading it now. Looking to get in and out for $1000 gains. Can't get too greedy when all you are doing is just pressing a few buttons on the computer right. ;)
The dividend is just the backup plan in case it melts down and I get stuck. It goes to paying interest on the money I am borrowing to trade XIU hahaha
Dinan
09-14-2009, 11:51 AM
Originally posted by max_boost
lol it's not picking the bottom,it's just buying it at the market price which just so happens to be the day lows.
I'm actively trading it now. Looking to get in and out for $1000 gains. Can't get too greedy when all you are doing is just pressing a few buttons on the computer right. ;)
The dividend is just the backup plan in case it melts down and I get stuck. It goes to paying interest on the money I am borrowing to trade XIU hahaha
well thats what i meant you picked the bottom today, good job!:thumbsup:
so you buy at the open if it's red? what's the secrete :D
max_boost
09-14-2009, 11:57 AM
Oh I forgot to say it's a market order right when it opens. So I get in whatever the opening price is haha and after that, I just hope it goes up!
I wake up a couple hours after the markets open. :D
Dinan
09-14-2009, 12:38 PM
wow, so pissed about not holding LVS :facepalm:
what a loser, i had shares as low as 6.40 :banghead:
Dinan
09-14-2009, 12:43 PM
investors say that with crazy volatility like NG is having in the past week is either making a TOP or BOTTOM.
with the ratio still out of whack and i hear we going to have a really cold winter, we might have seen the bottom at 2.41, lets hope not!
thats what i hear on BNN, few min ago!
Originally posted by bilal.h1
i am worried that, the price of NG will keep increasing, until the 17th to reduce the contango
Instead of going against the trend, even for a day ride HNU to hedge against your HND positions?
SilverRex
09-14-2009, 01:15 PM
FYI, be at race city tomorrow so no post
nothing special, recap. expecting dollar to bottom this week. any oil rallies would be great shorting.
:)
Dinan
09-14-2009, 01:17 PM
Originally posted by SilverRex
FYI, be at race city tomorrow so no post
nothing special, recap. expecting dollar to bottom this week. any oil rallies would be great shorting.
:)
you track your car? is it your daily car or you have a track car?
Dinan
09-14-2009, 01:54 PM
bought 300 @ 13.77:nut:
hope i don't regret it tomorrow... go down damn NG!
Chandler_Racing
09-14-2009, 02:35 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
bought 300 @ 13.77:nut:
hope i don't regret it tomorrow... go down damn NG!
Another huge day for natural gas!
Not that it matters as I am down 40% still :rofl:
I always give people shit for not investing with stop losses and it looks like I feel into my own trap. Either way, I am holding this stock out of stubbornness to zero or hero.
Vanish3d
09-14-2009, 02:39 PM
ya^
zero or hero. gonna hold it till HND is at 24 to breakeven...but then I'll just put a stop at 23.5 and ride it to 30 (or till i get stopped)
Chandler_Racing
09-14-2009, 02:46 PM
Originally posted by Vanish3d
ya^
zero or hero. gonna hold it till HND is at 24 to breakeven...but then I'll just put a stop at 23.5 and ride it to 30 (or till i get stopped)
I am going against the grain on this one as I am holding HNU.
Dinan
09-14-2009, 02:48 PM
^ i don't think there is a grain to go against, just yet.... but i wish i held onto HNU a week longer, could have lost a bit less...
will see who the hero will be, HNU or HND...
for us HND holders lets hope 3.424 is the double top and bring us down under 3$ soon :)
Vanish3d
09-14-2009, 02:56 PM
Originally posted by Chandler_Racing
I am going against the grain on this one as I am holding HNU.
lol you are prolly the one that will walk out winning
I was in HNU at 6.00 but got out at 4.7, bought again at 3.00, got out at 2.8, got in again at 2.4, got out at 1.85 and jumped into HND...now the same thing is happenin to HND so im not lettin go lol
Dinan
09-14-2009, 03:12 PM
damn it got over 4.424, at 3.435 .... oh boy:drama:
looking at the MACD, there is a nice divergence, thats good for us HND holders , it would have been better if it didn't get over 4.424.....
http://www.oilngold.com/data/ng10.png
Dinan
09-14-2009, 07:24 PM
well the charts looks bullish.... of course it does, after i sell HNU, damn couldn't have held a week or so more :facepalm:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p47452312144
Natural gas closed sharply higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.106. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If October extends last week's rally, broken support crossing at 3.584 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 2.740 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.42
Second resistance is broken support crossing at 3.58
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 2.74
econd support is last Friday's low crossing at 2.41
this reminds me of when we all got into HNU :facepalm:
cosmok
09-14-2009, 07:33 PM
There's going to be a lot more :facepalm:ing tomorrow
guessboi
09-14-2009, 10:59 PM
fcuk. I just checked the future prices after market. :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: I dunno if i should sell tomorrow or just let it ride. I sold my 2.92 HNU at like 1.84. This is terrible. should have just kept it.
Dinan
09-15-2009, 06:12 AM
Damn, there goes NG and our $ too :( let's hope that 3.59 holds!
I should listen to myself more! I was saying that NG was turning bullish! Why do I always go against the force :(
HNU fucked me, sold it few days before it started moving up :( and got scared to get back in even tho it was turning bullish :(
Anyone going into HNU, lol
tylere
09-15-2009, 06:53 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
Damn, there goes NG and our $ too :( let's hope that 3.59 holds!
I should listen to myself more! I was saying that NG was turning bullish! Why do I always go against the force :(
HNU fucked me, sold it few days before it started moving up :( and got scared to get back in even tho it was turning bullish :(
Anyone going into HNU, lol
lol, you are crazy to be thinking about HND and HNU. I think until this thing gains some stability it's back to oil and gold for me. Then again some reason I keep getting the itch to play NG....
Dinan
09-15-2009, 07:06 AM
Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.100 confirming that a short term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.
If October extends this month's rally, broken support crossing at 3.584 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.939 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Tuesday's pivot point for nat gas is 3.26
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.51
Second resistance is broken support crossing at 3.58
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.10
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.94
still short covering ??? :nut: :dunno:
eljefe
09-15-2009, 07:14 AM
October is currently back down to 3.45 and the high this morning has touched as high as 3.578
Dinan
09-15-2009, 07:21 AM
^^ yuppp, the high was just under the previous broken support like they said, so you wouldn't think it would go through (if it does) on the first attempt, now the question is how much more will it drop before it attempts to go for it again?
Dinan
09-15-2009, 07:22 AM
why are the offers on HND 12.50 :eek: maybe it will change before the open ??/
sputnik
09-15-2009, 07:31 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
why are the offers on HND 12.50 :eek: maybe it will change before the open ??/
Probably has something to do with the fact that Henry Hub Natural Gas is trading higher this morning.
superboyazn
09-15-2009, 07:35 AM
Are we expecthing it to rise until the rollover, then the price of NG should fall off since $4 NG is still too high?
Dinan
09-15-2009, 07:47 AM
coming back down :D
lucky we trading nov contract more then oct... it would have been lot worse otherwise ....
cosmok
09-15-2009, 08:00 AM
$13 sure looks like a great entry on HND now
997TT
09-15-2009, 08:02 AM
we are in the green.... yes
stilla long ways to go before even.
no more averaging down for me....time to just find a way to minizmize losses.
bilal.h1
09-15-2009, 08:02 AM
good thing i exited HND yesterday at 14.06 after i bought at 13.86 lol really cheap but saved me a dollar.
Now i am back to stocks, i went into CENX Today.
i wanna see some green market today. since we got lots of positive reports.:eek:
in terms of forex i am waiting on oil inventories. it comes in few minutes
Dinan
09-15-2009, 08:08 AM
well i had a sell order at 13.89, made 16$ hahahaha.... no more ETF's specially 2x for me ..... at least for now :devil: :facepalm:
now lets hope SR is right about the sell off this week,, so we can buy some stocks cheaper!:D
997TT
09-15-2009, 08:23 AM
Dinan, i'd give my left nut for a $16 profit on HND. Actually make that both nuts .... :banghead:
eljefe
09-15-2009, 08:35 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
Dinan, i'd give my left nut for a $16 profit on HND. Actually make that both nuts .... :banghead:
Don't ya wish there was a reset button or restore function!
Dinan
09-15-2009, 08:50 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
Dinan, i'd give my left nut for a $16 profit on HND. Actually make that both nuts .... :banghead:
are you down a lot man? lets hope NG drops so you guys can get out of HND even or with smaller loss! then have a good entry for HNU :devil: :banghead: :rofl:
yeah i was about to sell with a loss, lucky i waited, i just put in sell order, cause i know NG is volatile and got lucky...
i'm a bit bullish on NG but then again nov contract is too high!
oct is moving on up, trying to reduce the contango, thats better for bulls, right? :dunno:
well if thursday's numbers are "better then expected" again, that won't be good!
superboyazn
09-15-2009, 09:52 AM
damn NG exploded up!
skandalouz_08
09-15-2009, 10:07 AM
Ugh, I hate NG, lost with HNU and now I'm down almost a grand with HND...Now do I average down or will HND even rise anymore?
Dinan
09-15-2009, 10:12 AM
^^ don't average down, not with etf's, you might get lucky but from experience going against the "force" will end up losing more....
wow, got over 3.60....
superboyazn
09-15-2009, 10:19 AM
Need to hold and hope with the contract rollover NG is overpriced in the Nov contract and that it'll fall..
bilal.h1
09-15-2009, 10:28 AM
i will get in TOm after the split.. and i would only hold for max of 2 days.
i hate etfs
Dinan
09-15-2009, 10:31 AM
Originally posted by bilal.h1
i will get in TOm after the split.. and i would only hold for max of 2 days.
i hate etfs
get into HND???
yeah etf's are few days wing trades, max... if u can get in and out the same day even better
max_boost
09-15-2009, 11:47 AM
So I'm back into XIU again 6000 shares at $17.20 lol
Markets remain bullish? Maybe I'll just put a stop in place, this bad boy can run to 12,000 quickly if this keeps up.
:D
Dinan
09-15-2009, 12:25 PM
^^^ market order again? wow, near the low again... :thumbsup:
damn, NG is out of control lol... down bitch down! :rofl:
in about 5 min, it will be 75/25 nov / oct contract, very good for HND holders.... damn i was sooo damn close buying back in the low 13's :banghead:
eljefe
09-15-2009, 12:30 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
damn, NG is out of control lol... down bitch down! :rofl:
in about 5 min, it will be 75/25 nov / oct contract, very good for HND holders.... damn i was sooo damn close buying back in the low 13's :banghead:
The market price on HNU HND seems to have been trading as if it was already 75/25 most the day
troyl
09-15-2009, 12:32 PM
Nice pop for oil, $71.13!
troyl
09-15-2009, 12:33 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
So I'm back into XIU again 6000 shares at $17.20 lol
Markets remain bullish? Maybe I'll just put a stop in place, this bad boy can run to 12,000 quickly if this keeps up.
:D
Quick 1000 profit if you sell now ;)
Dinan
09-15-2009, 12:35 PM
Originally posted by eljefe
The market price on HNU HND seems to have been trading as if it was already 75/25 most the day
why you say that?
October, 2009 (37.5%)
November, 2009 (62.5%)
Beginning 2:30pm ET on September 15, 2009:
October, 2009 (25%)
November, 2009 (75%)
max_boost
09-15-2009, 12:37 PM
Originally posted by troyl
Quick 1000 profit if you sell now ;)
Just did haha
I couldn't resist. $1K in the pocket for pressing a few buttons. Can't complain at all.
Rinse and repeat. I will keep doing this as long as the market cooperates hahaha
eljefe
09-15-2009, 12:38 PM
I mean the market price for HNU/HND has been trading as if it were already at the 75/25. Meaning investors have been treating it as such today- the value of HNU HND all day has been reflective of the new trading percentage in advance.
Dinan
09-15-2009, 12:48 PM
Originally posted by eljefe
I mean the market price for HNU/HND has been trading as if it were already at the 75/25. Meaning investors have been treating it as such today- the value of HNU HND all day has been reflective of the new trading percentage in advance.
did you calculate it? :D
eljefe
09-15-2009, 12:59 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
did you calculate it? :D
I did, and its easy to see now as HND/HNU are trading at the same levels as earlier when NG was where it is now.
Edit** and you had me second guessing myself there but I redid the math of when I bought earlier and current levels and yes it has traded consistently all day. I think the market participants just started bidding out from this morning and built the rolling percentage into bids and asks.
Dinan
09-15-2009, 01:03 PM
Originally posted by eljefe
I did, and its easy to see now as HND/HNU are trading at the same levels as earlier when NG was where it is now.
i was messing with you:D
u holding HND?
eljefe
09-15-2009, 01:04 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
i was messing with you:D
u holding HND?
Yes I am , thats the only reason I had to figure it out. I picked up twice today, the last time was 13.01
Dinan
09-15-2009, 01:09 PM
Originally posted by eljefe
Yes I am , thats the only reason I had to figure it out. I picked up twice today, the last time was 13.01
nice, is your average low now? i'm thinking about getting back in but not sure....
eljefe
09-15-2009, 01:16 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
nice, is your average low now? i'm thinking about getting back in but not sure....
Yes it is quite low- gas is such a crap shoot right now it is somewhat risky, but my risk tolerance is tempered by the fact that we still have huge contango. I'm not so much banking on just gas going down- but that the November contract will meet October- even if they meet with a larger portion of October going up, as the roll over is closer to complete we can hopefully pull gain off of a slide in November. In hopeful theory of course- October testing the earlier lows is just an added bonus. The flip side of that is of course...well, lets just not go there!
Dinan
09-15-2009, 01:20 PM
you waiting for break even?
eljefe
09-15-2009, 01:22 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
you waiting for break even?
Nope I am playing this one for larger than an intra day trade. If and that is a big IF this goes how I hope it will be a generous gain.
Dinan
09-15-2009, 01:25 PM
Originally posted by eljefe
Nope I am playing this one for larger than an intra day trade. If and that is a big IF this goes how I hope it will be a generous gain.
along the lines of what SR, is saying? nov contract to get to 3$.....?
damn, you tempting me to buy in :devil:
cosmok
09-15-2009, 08:06 PM
API numbers:
Crude: +631,000
Gasoline: +1.3 million
Distillates: +5.2 million
http://www.insidefutures.com/article/114027/Chart%20Presentation:%201992%20Comparison.html
intresting article comparing 1992 to now
SilverRex
09-16-2009, 06:30 AM
ok after having a day off (track day) time to get back to business. This will be a very important week to remember. Why? will explain in a bit.
first lets look at oil, as seen below. oil is the only chart imo that had been more predictable of late than others like NG. but the 75 still remains my top and the drop from 72.90 to 68 is a sub wave i of III. I now fully expect oil to either drop from 71 (giving a previous trendline is now resistance) or any upside to about 72 will be a shorting gift. Technically, as long as oil does not break above 73.3-73.50, the bearish outlook is very very much in tact. Stoch is over bought setting up for a big fall similar to the last drop from 72.90 to 68.
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil091609.jpg
There isnt much to say about gold other than the substantial higher highs was expected all along ever since it broke out of 965 weeks ago. The upside top could be any where it is now 1020s all the way to 1189 depending on how much buying pressure it has. But remember, COT commercials are at a record short, something has to give. I dont expect gold to hold out much longer. as the dollar gains strength, short term we can expect gold to eventually come down its best only to swing trade gold near their resistance such as 1033, this morning's 1020 or 975 if when even it does reach there.
Now the most important chart of all, the dollar index. if my count is correct. we are in the final stages of a dollar bottom. Cant rule out a sudden sell off but I will expect a full retracement pushing it back up. giving the nearest big major support for dollar is at 75.90 and we are only slightly few pts away. everything is shaping out to be a good timing. Why? cyclist has called a turndate and a dollar bottom on the 17th. Either the dollar bottoms here near 76.20 or it will have not much more to go and we should be done. I've drawn the purple line from the wave i drop to about .9-1 of a pt. typically wave 5 and 1 tends to equal in length. so it only makes perfect sense it reaches near 75.90.
the key that dollar has finally bottom and the rise has started would be a break above 77.82, especially more true if it can reach above 78. looking at the recent side way grind amid lower lows. there is alot of overlapping happening. it is getting corrective, again we are near a bottom if not at one. get ready folks. and with a resurging dollar, this is where I Expect oil to further weakend and the market to eventually roll over.
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar091609.jpg
also going to pop the dow chart just for kicks. comparing it to the last drop, dow sure looks like it has topped out on the 15th. I will expect dow to at least test the red up trend line quite soon, and upon breaking below that would be the signal that dow has finally rolled over as well imo
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow091609.jpg
SilverRex
09-16-2009, 06:39 AM
NG has surprised me alot, but so far the moves appears the drops are still impulsive but it slowly creeps back up appears corrective still imo.
key to watch is the weekly number 3.16, price need to close the week below this. it has gone as far as it needs to, any higher up would be dangerous.
there is an alt count that could produce the 2.41 as the bottom. but with huge supply a soon to be falling oil as well as a rising dollar. I am not sure how NG can hold up. The only thing I have to believe in is, no oil = no NG. NG does not have to rise on strong oil but certainly cannot rise without it. I am going to hold onto the little bit of my position and see how she goes.
for those that cannot stomach it, take the next sell off and reduce your position gradually.
I am sure now everyone understands the volatility behind this month's contract aftering sell down hard. swings back up are equally hard. I am guessing alot believe 2.41 is to be the ultimate bottom and alot of buying is showing up. hopefully a rising dollar will negate this soon rather than later.
Also it would be ironic as MR bernie came out saying the recession is over yesterday would be the beginning the next leg down :D
bilal.h1
09-16-2009, 06:58 AM
SR,
i Shorted GOLD at 1014 yesterday,
do u think i rushed alittle bit
Dinan
09-16-2009, 07:04 AM
Originally posted by bilal.h1
SR,
i Shorted GOLD at 1014 yesterday,
do u think i rushed alittle bit
how did u short it? hgd?
SilverRex
09-16-2009, 07:10 AM
Originally posted by bilal.h1
SR,
i Shorted GOLD at 1014 yesterday,
do u think i rushed alittle bit
better have a tight stop a break above todays higher at 1020 could quickly test 1033
bilal.h1
09-16-2009, 07:14 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
how did u short it? hgd?
forex
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