Official Short-term Investments Thread

[dawerks]

When people think CAT, they are thinking USA. That's wrong. CAT is Chinese (it's hard to think in those terms, but once that paradigm shift is made, I think it's a good one to buy).

I am holding CMM and whatever shares I have I'm happy with. If they trade up (10% or more, I'll take profit), if they just sit, I'll sit. If they dive down 10%, I'll buy more and take WTG shares :)

[troyl]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi
I'm thinking about opening an option on CCO today for July, seems like a no brainer to me. This would be my first option play, anyone else doing this or think it's a smart play?

I bought my first call ever today on CCO, exciting times! July 32. Maybe i should have went with something a little further out of the money.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by troyl


I bought my first call ever today on CCO, exciting times! July 32. Maybe i should have went with something a little further out of the money.

Should give yourself a better chance to win if you're bullish on CCO..

Short Puts instead.. Premiums will be relatively sky high in lieu of the recent tank. If you Short Put you will profit from the fall in volatility, a rise in underlying share price, as well as time decay.

Long call means you will gain value from a rise in volatility (which you usually only get during a continued drop in share price, which I'm sure you don't want) and a rise in the underlying. You are fighting time decay..

To summarize:

Long Call
If stock continues to dump you lose 2 ways
If stock rises you win 2 ways
Potentially unlimited gain, limited loss

Short Put
If stock continues to dump you lose 1 way
If stock rises you win 3 ways
Potentially large losses, limited gains

Your choice though.. Its a 1:1 vs 3:1. Remember this shit is a marathon, not a sprint.

Naked long leap calls would be better if you wait for the volatility to sink back down because buying discounted volatility value > fighting time decay if it rises high enough.

[broken_legs]

No wonder the price of silver is going so high!


http://ausbullion.blogspot.com/2011/03/1650kg-of-silver-fired-at-libya-to.html

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


Should give yourself a better chance to win if you're bullish on CCO..

Short Puts instead.. Premiums will be relatively sky high in lieu of the recent tank. If you Short Put you will profit from the fall in volatility, a rise in underlying share price, as well as time decay.

Long call means you will gain value from a rise in volatility (which you usually only get during a continued drop in share price, which I'm sure you don't want) and a rise in the underlying. You are fighting time decay..

To summarize:

Long Call
If stock continues to dump you lose 2 ways
If stock rises you win 2 ways
**Potentially unlimited gain, limited loss**

Short Put
If stock continues to dump you lose 1 way
If stock rises you win 3 ways
**Potentially large losses, limited gains**

Your choice though.. Its a 1:1 vs 3:1. Remember this shit is a marathon, not a sprint.

Naked long leap calls would be better if you wait for the volatility to sink back down because buying discounted volatility value > fighting time decay if it rises high enough.

I'm new to options so maybe I'm missing something but doesn't the points I put the * by signify what the better option would be? I was planning on writing a call option which till July would run about $3.30 or so per share. I was going to write 10-15 units of 100. This equates to about 10% of the cost of actually purchasing that many shares yet you have unlimited gain.


As a side note, they restored power to the nuclear plant in Japan so Uranium stocks should rebound hard this week. Time to get in if anyone hasn't already.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi


I'm new to options so maybe I'm missing something but doesn't the points I put the * by signify what the better option would be? I was planning on writing a call option which till July would run about $3.30 or so per share. I was going to write 10-15 units of 100. This equates to about 10% of the cost of actually purchasing that many shares yet you have unlimited gain.


As a side note, they restored power to the nuclear plant in Japan so Uranium stocks should rebound hard this week. Time to get in if anyone hasn't already.

If you write an option it is the same as shorting it right?

Thus a short option at $3.30 means you would prefer the option go to $0.00 so you gain max profit of $3.30.

Thus there are no unlimited gains in writing/shorting an option.

Does this clarify?

[troyl]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi


I'm new to options so maybe I'm missing something but doesn't the points I put the * by signify what the better option would be? I was planning on writing a call option which till July would run about $3.30 or so per share. I was going to write 10-15 units of 100. This equates to about 10% of the cost of actually purchasing that many shares yet you have unlimited gain.


As a side note, they restored power to the nuclear plant in Japan so Uranium stocks should rebound hard this week. Time to get in if anyone hasn't already.

If you write a call or a put you receive that option premium. So lets say you write a 10 call at 3.30 you would receive $3300. Writing naked options is a little bit riskier as the losses can be huge. I will stick to buying options the most I can loose is the premium I pay for them.

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi
As a side note, they restored power to the nuclear plant in Japan so Uranium stocks should rebound hard this week. Time to get in if anyone hasn't already.
Last I heard the situation was better but still precarious. Maybe some short-term gains will be made but the risk might scare away many investors. I doubt they will return to previous levels for quite some time. Long-term these stocks might be really badly affected. What's your pick if you to make one? I think UUU looks nice (would have made a nice position to have on Friday). but considering the rally it just made (as well as many others), I'm scared of a dead cat bounce.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by troyl


If you write a call or a put you receive that option premium. So lets say you write a 10 call at 3.30 you would receive $3300. Writing naked options is a little bit riskier as the losses can be huge. I will stick to buying options the most I can loose is the premium I pay for them.

Writing naked options is only risky if you have no idea what you are doing. The big players count on this type of thinking to profit in the options market, constantly selling garbage options to uneducated investors who deem them as a "safe" play with "limited losses".

Think of the business model of an insurance company and you will understand. The insurance company is the option writer and the retail investor is the option buyer.

Here is a riddle: Does anyone know how it is possible to buy a Call, experience a drop in the underlying, and actually see the value of the Call increase? Hint, I've already explained it in my previous post!

[troyl]

^Increase in volatility of the underlying asset.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by troyl
^Increase in volatility of the underlying asset.

Hooray! You can read after all :D

Sorry to be a dick lol. It's just very unlikely that picking a random person will actually know anything about the intricacies of options pricing.

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


If you write an option it is the same as shorting it right?

Thus a short option at $3.30 means you would prefer the option go to $0.00 so you gain max profit of $3.30.

Thus there are no unlimited gains in writing/shorting an option.

Does this clarify?

Maybe I used the wrong terminology or maybe I'm just not following. I am brand new to options so maybe I'm way off here.

I'm looking to "buy to open" a call. Where you pay your premium (say $3.30/share in this scenario). Say I select $29 as my scratch price for July. I would need to have the stock appreciated $3.30 in order to break even, anything on top of that I take as profit.

Thus I'm basically paying 10% of the cost of the stock up front with unlimited gains available. Max lose though is limited to the premium(the 10% I paid already)

I was looking to purchase 10-15 units, thus my total cost would be say $3300 for 10 units.

Does this make sense?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Hi-Psi]

So would this be considered a decent play then with the pounding Uranium stocks took the week before last? Seems like a no brainer to me but I'm new to options and just going by what I've been taught thus far.

Same with UUU and maybe TCK.B. There are actually quite a few stocks out there that I could see this being pretty profitable for.

Jason

[SilverRex]

oil/gold/silver ready to challenge for new highs

Previous call on 3.7-3.8 for bottom on Natgas is holding well, with the late advance last week, it appears Natgas is ready to make a new major move, current support lies at 3.9-4.00, expectation 6.00+ in coming weeks.

[SilverRex]

UUU up 10%, not bad, I expect it will eventually close the gap at 5.5

with TSX closing above 13800 and DOW closing above 12000, minor correction completed.

we should continue to see rise in all sectors until mid June which is a big turning date.

then we sell and wait for next opportunity

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Hi-Psi]

Does anyone hold Poynt(PYN) or thinking about picking it up? I'm debating getting into it as a speculative penny stock seeing as how they've had nothing but growth and good news over the last few months.

Anyone have any opinions? And yes I know it's risky, I like these kind of risky plays in my Tax Free though.

[Hi-Psi]

I'm a moron and screwed up my buy order on PYN, wanted to put 0.20 and for some reason put 0.21.

Order filled at .21 :-(

I've done this once before too, what a piss off! Oh well, will look to make a few cents on this and flip it, just ate a little bit of profit there unfortunately.

[gyu]

Maybe UUU hit bottom last week and is ready to go back up

[Feruk]

Anyone playing Hemisphere GPS Inc (HEM) on the TSX? Saw it on BNN but I don't know the market. Thoughts?

[bitteeinbit]

I've been following it today and it gapped up and has been falling since. It's done a nice rally the past few days but the fact that it was on BNN might mean some short term traders are just going to dump it once they can make some profit (which many already have). I don't know anything about the company though.

Any thoughts on GPR? It's been congesting for about two weeks now and seems to have stabilized itself a bit. I'm thinking of getting in today or waiting tomorrow to confirm. It seems to always gap up and fall back down (makes gains but they are all black candles so I'm wondering if that's a sign lot's of bears are lurking). I know hi-spy thinks it's still a buy, but I'm waiting for a good entry-point. Opinions/ideas? Stoch and RSI seem good but it's a bit high over the 20ma.

Opinions?

[RX_EVOLV]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi
I'm a moron and screwed up my buy order on PYN, wanted to put 0.20 and for some reason put 0.21.

Order filled at .21 :-(

I've done this once before too, what a piss off! Oh well, will look to make a few cents on this and flip it, just ate a little bit of profit there unfortunately.

i like the apps and the company, but I dont get why a single app can be worth $70 Million market cap..

[SilverRex]

anyone notice the huge buy volume lately on UNG, havent seen this type of accumulation for awhile. I am going to say any dip in Natgas will be a good pick up for the next few weeks.

[Hi-Psi]

CMM dropped 8% to 0.495 today, might be a good opportunity to pick up more?

[Hi-Psi]

CMM dropped as low as 0.48, had a buy order at 0.49 that never filled. Finished at 0.50 at the end of day.

[Mckenzie]

I've taken a size-able position down at this level in URC Uracan Resources. Recent financing, drills turning and established management TEAM (unlike most VSE companies that have a CEO and a bunch of consultants). Will likely accumulate more and assess after drill results from winter program are out.

[broken_legs]

MUST.... SLEEEP...


Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumps 4.4 per cent
4:29 AM

[SilverRex]

gold/silver/oil ready for uptrend continuation

oil (as long as 101.68 holds) expecting it to retest 107

NG looks good on any dip to 4.00 as buy

[RX_EVOLV]

Originally posted by broken_legs
MUST.... SLEEEP...


Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumps 4.4 per cent
4:29 AM


:zzz: :zzz: I thought uranium companies would jump today

[SilverRex]

Natgas has finally taking out the key resistance at 4.25, now I expect its a buy on dips now, MT expectation 6.00+

[bitteeinbit]

Picked up some TCW yesterday morning. didn't do much but at least I ended the day positive. I also finally took up some GPR, one in the morning and once in the afternoon. Small amounts though: I'll add if things go well. I think today I'll just sit back as I don't know what to get.

[93VR6]

Anyone know what's up with IAE.vn?

[hustler]

^^

maybe something to do with this?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=+20110322&archive=ccnm&slug=201103220683560001

[93VR6]

Originally posted by hustler
^^

maybe something to do with this?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=+20110322&archive=ccnm&slug=201103220683560001

I saw that, yesterday the stock went up, today its down on big volume unless people react this slowly to press releases?

[Hi-Psi]

Order filled for CMM at 0.48 this morning! woot!

[Sugarphreak]

...

[yoda124]

breakout on silver 30 year high...loaded up on SLW

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by yoda124
breakout on silver 30 year high...loaded up on SLW

SLW Should have been a long term hold before the metals rally even began lol. Do you know their business model?

[yoda124]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


SLW Should have been a long term hold before the metals rally even began lol. Do you know their business model?

lol no...tell me all about it.

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Swept up some the falling Nexen shares this afternoon, they are down over 7% on news of a UK tax on off-shore oil operations.
I have a feeling Nexen will fall for a few more sessions to reach 23.05-10 or something like that before heading back up.

Ideas/opinion? (took out ma's so it wouldn't look too cluttered)
http://img858.imageshack.us/img858/7562/screenshotx.png

[Sugarphreak]

...

[bitteeinbit]

Haha yeah I did edit but in all honesty, last night I looked at it on a proper chart software (drew the trendline which was saved) and this morning when I posted I only looked at the google finance linear chart and visually guesstimated (I swear!!!! lol). Now I've opened it back up. If you look at the 1 yr chart it's somewhat different (notice how one of the prior bottoms doesn't quite touch the line the way it seems it does on the 6 month chart and it would probably cut through the semi-hammer there beforehand if it kept on going to the left (sorry, I cut out the dates by accident). I do believe it'll go back up though, probably quickly too. Btw, are you still holding ENB?

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/3696/screenshot2me.png

[Sugarphreak]

...

[broken_legs]

a 12% increase on net oil profits is a pretty big deal for Nexen no?

Most of their production (75%?) comes from the North Sea - Buzzard, Scott etc..


http://www.nexeninc.com/images/Maps/2009_Map_UKNorthSea_600x583.jpg

[Hi-Psi]

Scorpio Mining (SPM) breaking out nicely the last few days!

[DUBBED]

I'll mention DEE again, anonymous buyer just paid $12k/Ha for lands adjacent to DEE's. Don't think this is price in yet, will probably take the market a few days to figure it out.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[dawerks]

Took a few days off and the market is doing ok, but some nice gainers out there!

NWI is up 70+% on some recent buys! CAT is doing great, I'm a little disappointed by CMM (but that's only because I was making some really good gains). I will hold for the merger.

I am winding down some trades and getting ready for the summer off (sell in May, go away). But usually I try and beat the May sell off and close out the opens in April and just wait and hold (it's usually worked out almost every year, except for the years it hasn't, haha, that never gets old).

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


It is for sure, however the price of oil has gone up more than that in the last little while which by istelf should counteract the increase in tax. Becides profits are only one aspect; the stock price also reflects assets and future value so is it doesn't really justify the huge 8% drop IMO.


You are not practicing voodoo are you? Everytime you start ragging on one of my stock picks it backfires on me horribly.

How did that RIM pick work out for you? :) Nexens chart looks like it's doing teh expanding rising wedge (bearish pattern)

You could buy it off that trend line, but kinda looks like it wants to break down to me.

[pheoxs]

Any thoughts on RIMM (and I suppose RIM) amongst the earnings tonight?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by pheoxs
Any thoughts on RIMM (and I suppose RIM) amongst the earnings tonight?

Watch for 'margin compression.'

[KappaSigma]

I took a position in Bowood a coupel weeks ago....

[Sugarphreak]

...

[bitteeinbit]

I'm thinking of dumping the little shares of Dolorama (DOL) I have and adding to NPR.UN instead. I wanted it for the long-term but it's been stagnating since I got it. It's barely gone up in like 3 months. On a weekly chart it definitely shows a bullish piercing at the moment but these past 3 days have been sloooow...

Also, Rim looks good to me. Don't know what quarterly earnings will bring about but in the short-term wouldn't it go up regardless? I mean they have the tablet coming out relatively soon so wouldn't that pump up the share price?

On a side note: what the hell was I thinking buying Airline shares? They just seem to react to "bad" news twice as much as any other industry.

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
I'm thinking of dumping the little shares of Dolorama (DOL) I have and adding to NPR.UN instead. I wanted it for the long-term but it's been stagnating since I got it. It's barely gone up in like 3 months. On a weekly chart it definitely shows a bullish piercing at the moment but these past 3 days have been sloooow...

Also, Rim looks good to me. Don't know what quarterly earnings will bring about but in the short-term wouldn't it go up regardless? I mean they have the tablet coming out relatively soon so wouldn't that pump up the share price?

On a side note: what the hell was I thinking buying Airline shares? They just seem to react to "bad" news twice as much as any other industry.

As for Dollarama, I don't know what type of trader you are but the market in general has been pretty stagnant over the last 3 months so I wouldn't be too worried about one particular stock being stagnant. I don't know much about Dollarama but I think that's something to consider. I know that long term there were a lot of analysts that really like that stock.

RIM - The playbook is make or break for them and to be honest, I wouldn't hold your breath thinking it's going to raise many eyebrows. It would have to put out something pretty significant to gain much of the market share at all, unfortunately they got to the party a little too late IMO.

As for Airline stocks, there's a reason Warren Buffet hates them, I wouldn't touch airline stocks no matter how attractive they may look.

[SilverRex]

Gold/silver may go parabolic in May due to cycle and EW count, Expecting silver to hit 40-50 dollars

Natgas is into a minor correction and anything near 3.95-4.00 is a great buy and should be a major support for next leg up , still expecting next major target to reach at 6.00+

[93VR6]

Is Nat gas supply not still through the roof?

What makes you think It can/will run up to $6.00+?

[max_boost]

Damn RIM down 7% after hours. :eek:

[yellowsnow]

I think GAS plays are purely just technical analysis right now. i am not getting back in. too much speculation, and nothing has really changed. supply is still high, shale gas is overabundant, new wells being drilled...

[Hi-Psi]

IMO Nat Gas isn't going to be making any major gains in the next 6 months. Nat Gas will start looking attractive in roughly 12-18 months when supply really starts to come down.

Until then I don't think you're going to see much upside.

[dimi]

I bought the fucking dip! YES! LMAO

Ag to the moon pls!

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by max_boost
Damn RIM down 7% after hours. :eek:
Pfffff, I love how every little hitch becomes a calamity in the stock market. They posted EPS that beat "analyst" expectations, profits rose by 30%+, but forecasts for future earnings are lower than "analyst" expectations... What do people expect, 50% increases every quarter?! Sometimes I think capitalism is unsustainable and Marx had it right! :rofl:

I'm guessing the gap will either be filled quickly tomorrow morning or relatively soon. Either way, as sugarphreak said: "people always overreact".

The market forces people to act irrationally. I'm a calm and collected person, but when playing the markets, it seems I have to be a sheep and overreact at every opportuinity. One must become a nervous, jittery wreck or a euphoric freak when time dictates.

:drama:

[pheoxs]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit

Pfffff, I love how every little hitch becomes a calamity in the stock market. They posted EPS that beat "analyst" expectations, profits rose by 30%+, but forecasts for future earnings are lower than "analyst" expectations... What do people expect, 50% increases every quarter?! Sometimes I think capitalism is unsustainable and Marx had it right! :rofl:

I'm guessing the gap will either be filled quickly tomorrow morning or relatively soon. Either way, as sugarphreak said: "people always overreact".

The market forces people to act irrationally. I'm a calm and collected person, but when playing the markets, it seems I have to be a sheep and overreact at every opportuinity. One must become a nervous, jittery wreck or a euphoric freak when time dictates.

:drama:

Trying to figure out if I should dump Rimm and take the losses or wait and hope it recovers some of it ...

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi
IMO Nat Gas isn't going to be making any major gains in the next 6 months. Nat Gas will start looking attractive in roughly 12-18 months when supply really starts to come down.

Until then I don't think you're going to see much upside.

SO isnt now the best time to take a position when things are still cheap? Thats my take on it.

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


SO isnt now the best time to take a position when things are still cheap? Thats my take on it.

If you want to sit and watch your money do nothing for the next 6-12 months then sure, park it in Nat Gas plays.

Personally though, I would put my money into something that's actually going to give you a decent return in that time frame.

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by pheoxs


Trying to figure out if I should dump Rimm and take the losses or wait and hope it recovers some of it ...

I would be very cautious as this playbook will make or break them. Either the stock recovers nicely or it tanks. Knowing RIM though, I doubt the playbook will live up to its hype and the stock will tank.

[Hi-Psi]

AAA with a nice breakout today!

[Sugarphreak]

...

[DUBBED]

bought MGO this morning, took a beating in the last few weeks, chinese fertilizer demand is not shrinking...

[Feruk]

Originally posted by DUBBED
bought MGO this morning, took a beating in the last few weeks, chinese fertilizer demand is not shrinking...

Why do you reckon they took such a dive? It's gotta be company specific as their competitors didn't move the same.

[DUBBED]

Think its got something to do with this supply deal with a phantom supplier, I've been digging around and all the Russian companies are denying involvement. There is some speculation that AAA is the counterparty.

The honest answer is, i have absolutely no idea, bought at 7.15, put a sell order at 8. 10% and out...

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
BOOYAAA!!

Sold Nexen @ 24.50 :D (well, filled at 24.49 anyway)


Now, WTF is going on with Cineplex...
Nice one! I probably would have held longer, but I often get stung when I hold too long (come to think about it, I also get stung if I sell too soon! :D).


As for RIM, it depends at what price you bought in at. Most gaps like that tend to be filled. Look at April and June here:
http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/8297/screenshotrsh.png

Within about 3-4 weeks both gaps had filled, but then the stock quickly tumbled back down. I would hold out for a bit, especially since they have the tablet coming out which might bring in some buyers thinking the current price is a bargain. However, keep in mind that the stock might just as well keep falling. Like hi-psy says: it's gonna be make or break stock-wise.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[bitteeinbit]

I agree, but I've recently changed my strategy because I noticed most of my stocks have made big gains AFTER I sold them. Ex: I bought RIM for 48.XX$ back in September but sold shortly after, ADBE as well (this doubled in 3-4 months), LLL before 15% gains etc. I started to kick myself for selling too quickly. So far my new approach isn't working that well either. I liked it better when I made many small gains.

[SilverRex]

go Natgas

its entering the final wave v of (1) after the wave iv correction I mention.

then we should see a larger correction (hopefully) which is typical on the heels of a wave I advance.

then it should be quite exciting

[Sugarphreak]

...

[broken_legs]

fzyXn8t0plM



Rumors...

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by pheoxs


Trying to figure out if I should dump Rimm and take the losses or wait and hope it recovers some of it ...

Your mistake has already been made lol... Your money tied up in a dead stock isn't nearly as useful in something that will make you money.

I like to think of it this way, from Kevin O'leary on Dragon's Den / Shark Tank. Dollars are your soldiers, and when you send them to battle everyday you want to make sure they will not get slaughtered, you want to make sure they have a fighting chance.

Your soldiers went to battle and they are getting destroyed! Sugarphreak has already retreated has he stated and he will live to fight another day.

:D

[997TT]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


There are certainly a million ways to approch the market, but my opinion is if you make money, you should be happy... even if you make just 2% and then the stock goes up 20% after you sell, it sucks but you have to keep it in perspective that you turned a profit, and that is what counts.

I've added ~6.5% to my entire portfolio in the past 2 weeks doing small trades like this, so I am quite happy right now

ya i try to do the same in my one portfolio. I sold a ton of stocks way to early (in hindsight) but i took my gains and am can live with making money.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by SilverRex
go Natgas

its entering the final wave v of (1) after the wave iv correction I mention.

then we should see a larger correction (hopefully) which is typical on the heels of a wave I advance.

then it should be quite exciting


Hi SR,

With NG entering this final wave v...how much more upside do you think there will be before one can expect a potential correction? A few posts back you had indicated a possible rise of NG to 6.00+ I would assume this rise would folllow this correction we'd be hoping for, right?

Sorry, I am just not very familiar with the elliott wave theory. Don't suppose you would want to post a chart on NG with your thoughts? :) Either way thanks in advance for your time!

M8ball

[dimi]

I've read the basic Elliot Wave book, I was a paid subscriber at one point, and now I still get their free newsletters.

IMHO its the biggest bunch of shit. It is so arbitrary. How many times have they altered their wave counts when something doesn't go according to plan. From as far as I remeber it was always a case of: "if it breaks this price its wave V if it doesnt still wave 4, although there could be truncation, but there is also the possibility that..." Yeaaaaaa.

Again this is my opinion.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by dimi
I've read the basic Elliot Wave book, I was a paid subscriber at one point, and now I still get their free newsletters.

IMHO its the biggest bunch of shit. It is so arbitrary. How many times have they altered their wave counts when something doesn't go according to plan. From as far as I remeber it was always a case of: "if it breaks this price its wave V if it doesnt still wave 4, although there could be truncation, but there is also the possibility that..." Yeaaaaaa.

Again this is my opinion.

that is why you need to set your stops around in those key wave supports, its the beauty of trading, an art not easy to master.

I mention at the beginning of the year that NG was ready to advance since it did broke out temporary, however EW suggest it cannot break below a certain support which it did, hence everyone jumped off and it gave us a new perfect 5 waves down. when I notice the reverse H&S with the right shoulder some where between 3.7-3.8 it would have been the ultimate entry. Guess what, it rallied off 3.74 and jumped 20%

EW isnt perfect, economics and fundamentals can shift, and when it happens it will be reflected on the EW patterns tru truncation or extension. those terms does not mean the patterns keep changing endlessly but rather a shift in direction, but once you enter the trade perfectly, you can begin to witness a nice trend and it 'does' give you a sense of where it is headed and about when it will run into exhustion.

using EW, called silver to rally off 26.50, and to the dice, look at where we are, we hit 38, my call still suggest EW is pointing towards 50 at the least this year and potential a parabolic move higher, all from EW counting. Be harping 50 silver since last year,

also you have to include seasonal and cycles, when you combine them all, it's pretty darn scary what comes out of it. I suggested late late last year that uranium is about to end a mid term cycle high in January, and guess what it was just waiting to collapse, the Japan earth quake became the catalyst. UUU previous wave I at 3.32 must hold or risk further low, and the drop touched only 3.36 (what I buy, which I recommended last week, and everyone would have sitting pretty or about +25% at one point,

[93VR6]

http://www.megenergy.com/in_news.php

MEG could possibly be raising capital to buy stp?

They basically own land side by side and stp's market value about 580 million, meg raised 750 million, just a coincidence or is there more to it?

[bitteeinbit]

Got into TGL and AAV today but I really messed up my entry into TGL... It was up 3% at the open so I figured I would a half hour to make sure it wasn't one of those bad gap ups. Next thing I see it's at 4%...5%...9%!!! All within a half hour so around 10am I buy when it's at like +9% thinking it's a sign that it might keep going on during the day. It quickly reached 10% but fell back right after and closed at 5%... I managed to make a loss out of one of few stocks to rise today, go me!:facepalm:

[Hi-Psi]

Here's an interesting blog about Century Mining (CMM) and opinions on the takeover big by WTG. It seems the value of WTG was over estimated and a lot of the shareholders do not want to accept the WTG takeover bid. Most would prefer CMM stay as it is or else consider a 1:1 stock takeover.

http://www.stockigloo.com/

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Got into TGL and AAV today but I really messed up my entry into TGL... It was up 3% at the open so I figured I would a half hour to make sure it wasn't one of those bad gap ups. Next thing I see it's at 4%...5%...9%!!! All within a half hour so around 10am I buy when it's at like +9% thinking it's a sign that it might keep going on during the day. It quickly reached 10% but fell back right after and closed at 5%... I managed to make a loss out of one of few stocks to rise today, go me!:facepalm:

haha I did that with AUN a couple weeks back, had been watching it for a while, saw it finally breakout out, bought in at 1.08 and watched it drop back down to 1.03 later in the day, now sitting at 0.89 a couple weeks later. :-(

Combine that with the PYN order screw up I did last week and I've stung myself pretty good on two of my holdings.

HAL is the only major gainer for me today, man I love this stock!

[dawerks]

Either way, I think CMM will be a winner. I am getting ready for the sell in May, go away thing. But usually I sell my opens in mid April and come back around October.

But I'm mostly a buy/hold guy, I like to 'trade' when the market is already running up (it's easier).

For those guys that wind up 'selling too soon.' I used to be one of them, missed some killer gains in my life. I'm not that guy now. I'm the 'sold too late', it's MUCH better. You wind up with some multi baggers (and they are more fun to brag about than the 4-12% mini gainers). But a profit is a profit! :) Still looking for my first 10 bagger though...(can't get one of those by selling too early!).

[997TT]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi


haha I did that with AUN a couple weeks back, had been watching it for a while, saw it finally breakout out, bought in at 1.08 and watched it drop back down to 1.03 later in the day, now sitting at 0.89 a couple weeks later. :-(

Combine that with the PYN order screw up I did last week and I've stung myself pretty good on two of my holdings.

HAL is the only major gainer for me today, man I love this stock!

we've all been there.

[dimi]

Originally posted by SilverRex


that is why you need to set your stops around in those key wave supports, its the beauty of trading, an art not easy to master.

I mention at the beginning of the year that NG was ready to advance since it did broke out temporary, however EW suggest it cannot break below a certain support which it did, hence everyone jumped off and it gave us a new perfect 5 waves down. when I notice the reverse H&S with the right shoulder some where between 3.7-3.8 it would have been the ultimate entry. Guess what, it rallied off 3.74 and jumped 20%

EW isnt perfect, economics and fundamentals can shift, and when it happens it will be reflected on the EW patterns tru truncation or extension. those terms does not mean the patterns keep changing endlessly but rather a shift in direction, but once you enter the trade perfectly, you can begin to witness a nice trend and it 'does' give you a sense of where it is headed and about when it will run into exhustion.

using EW, called silver to rally off 26.50, and to the dice, look at where we are, we hit 38, my call still suggest EW is pointing towards 50 at the least this year and potential a parabolic move higher, all from EW counting. Be harping 50 silver since last year,

also you have to include seasonal and cycles, when you combine them all, it's pretty darn scary what comes out of it. I suggested late late last year that uranium is about to end a mid term cycle high in January, and guess what it was just waiting to collapse, the Japan earth quake became the catalyst. UUU previous wave I at 3.32 must hold or risk further low, and the drop touched only 3.36 (what I buy, which I recommended last week, and everyone would have sitting pretty or about +25% at one point,

nTZigLYsiMM

So what happened? If his prediction doesn't come true its always a different wave count.

1 question: Over the last year if I had taken ALL of EW suggestions (not picking and choosing), would I have made money?

Sorry man their track record is abysmal.

EDIT: And how much have gold & silver gone up in relation to the US dollar that he was "bullish" on?

[SilverRex]

look for gold/silver to bottom out 2nd week of April, read liquidity will dry up hence gold may out perform silver for the next major runup.

volatility will begin in mid june, so LT holders I suggest waiting on the side line post June to see what happens.

[dimi]

Have any of you followed CBEH and the shitshow that's going down LoL. They've been called out on fraud, arms-length transactions (acquisitions of the CEO's son's companies that have no assets), gross overestimation of revenue, and the list goes on... Their production facilities don't even operate. All of their acquisitions don't have a given address. I read through the 40 page report that alleged fraud and its just mind boggling.

A few law firms have allready filed class action lawsuits.

Yet what I find interesting is that management will defend tooth and nail against any of these allegations, even when such a insurmountable amount of evidence is against them. EVEN MORE AMUSING is how people are still buying this stock. Some people are just so hopeless.

Great short I will add.

EDIT:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-integrated-energy-cbeh-latest-alleged-chinese-fraud-true-value-076share

http://www.scribd.com/CBEH-Alfred-Little/d/51714807
This guy here took a surveilance video of their "biodisel" production facility that is supposed to gross over 10million and it had 4 trucks coming in and out of the facility in 3 months. 3 of those were on the day when the investors were being shown around. Too funny

[SilverRex]

reverse H&S on the daily chart $TSX is ready to head to new heights

[997TT]

Order just filled on ADI.
[email protected]

Putting in a sell order at 1.73

[Magic-8-Ball]

Silverrex,

After this recent pullback for NG...do you think there will be much more downside for NG? I know in a previous post you had mentioned buying on dips in the 3.95 to 4.00 range. Or do you think it will gradulally start what you foree as a rise to 6.00+?

Just trying to find a good entry point...

thanks,

[DUBBED]

anyone looking at CCO? Seems like a good entry point ~$29.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
reverse H&S on the daily chart $TSX is ready to head to new heights lulz orly?!

That's too bad cause I'm sitting on 100% cash. I haven't watched the markets or read any articles in the past week. Surprisingly I've been sleeping extremely well, coincidence? haha :D

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
lulz orly?!

That's too bad cause I'm sitting on 100% cash. I haven't watched the markets or read any articles in the past week. Surprisingly I've been sleeping extremely well, coincidence? haha :D

then you might have to wait a bit longer, there will be plenty of opportunity starting post mid june when volatility increases,

my theory goes that from mid june till end of 2012 will be more of a side way grind with flash crashes in between.

which = oppotunity, once 2012 comes and goes, people will realize no end of the world in sight, and market will then enter a very strong bullish phase up until 2016, thats when China goes to new heights and crashes in a deflationary fashion.

someone asked if TSX was in a bubble, if it were we wont be back at the 14k level, since we have retest the 14k level, the world has come to accept this as norm, the real bubble is when it takes off to 30-50k then we have a serious bubble.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball
Silverrex,

After this recent pullback for NG...do you think there will be much more downside for NG? I know in a previous post you had mentioned buying on dips in the 3.95 to 4.00 range. Or do you think it will gradulally start what you foree as a rise to 6.00+?

Just trying to find a good entry point...

thanks,

I think we may still be in a wave iv correction, even so, the wave V wont take us too much higher, I will be looking for a wave II correction down to 4.00-4.25 area, it can very easily go up first then correct. once it tops out, look for a minimum of 38% or 50% retracement would be the ideal re-entry pt.